Pascal Hiel
4K posts

Pascal Hiel
@pascalhiel
Enjoying life. #InformationSecurity #AIenthousiast #Solarnrg, #Tesla #discoverandmeettheworld #former2lt117signalcompany
Utrecht, The Netherlands 가입일 Mart 2009
891 팔로잉965 팔로워
Pascal Hiel 리트윗함
Pascal Hiel 리트윗함
Pascal Hiel 리트윗함
Pascal Hiel 리트윗함

Here are Russia's brand new 2S43 Malva 152mm self-propelled wheeled artillery guns on the way to the front lines along with 9K512 Uragan-1M MLRS.
Actual State of the Russian military in 2026:
- 680,000 troops occupy Ukraine.
- Ground forces doubled from 2022 to nearly 600,000, despite losing 1.3 million.
- 1.3 million active duty troops (up 44% since 2022).
- 70-85 Iskander and Kinzhal ballistic missiles per month. Was 3/month in 2022.
- 120–170 cruise missiles per month.
- Shells/munitions production: 7 million artillery, mortar, tank/IFV, and MLRS rounds in 2025 (17× pre-invasion 2021 level of 400,000).
- 7 million FPV drones/year.
- 150,000 strike drones/year, boosting to 360,000/year. That's Shaheds, etc.
- 21,000 armored vehicles (tanks + IFVs + APCs/ACVs) in active inventory, exceeding pre-2022 levels. Despite ~16,000 losses since Feb 2022.
STOP SAYING THAT RUSSIA DOESN'T HAVE THE MILITARY TO WAGE WAR BEYOND UKRAINE.
EUROPE MUST MOBILIZE FOR WAR IF IT HOPES TO PREVENT A LARGER WAR.
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Pascal Hiel 리트윗함

Pascal Hiel 리트윗함

🇮🇹 Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni literally destroyed Trump’s arrogance
🇺🇸 TRUMP — “Italy can be invited to replace Iran at 2026 FIFA World Cup. We must repair ties with Meloni”
🇮🇹 Meloni — “No thanks, we are Four Times World Cup Winner. We play by rules and we don’t need such participation trophies” 🔥
Trump thought he could butter Meloni by such cheap tricks, but it backfired. Meloni didn’t hesitate to show him his place 🫡
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Pascal Hiel 리트윗함
Pascal Hiel 리트윗함

Pascal Hiel 리트윗함
Pascal Hiel 리트윗함

WOW.
Ukrainian intelligence infiltrated a closed conference at a Russian university in the Kuban region where students were being recruited for the war.
The speaker handed the floor to someone he took to be a Russian soldier. However, it turned out to be a member of the Ukrainian armed forces.
“I am indeed a soldier, but not a Russian, I am a Ukrainian. And I tell you: God forbid you come here, I will have to kill you, every single one of you who signs this contract. Your faces are all copied, just like the rector’s, just like those of the people who just presented this to you, the soldier who told you about it,” the Ukrainian said.
He emphasized that the front line remained unchanged, while “cemeteries the size of two countries” were growing.
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Pascal Hiel 리트윗함
Pascal Hiel 리트윗함

Last night was the biggest disaster in the history of Tesla.
Let me walk you through what actually happened on that earnings call, because the headlines are doing you a disservice:
Elon Musk got on the call and admitted (his words) that Hardware 3 "simply does not have the capability to achieve unsupervised FSD."
He said he wished it were otherwise. He said the memory bandwidth is one-eighth of what Hardware 4 has. And that's the end of the conversation.
Approximately 4 million Tesla vehicles on the road right now have Hardware 3. Many of those owners paid $8,000 to $15,000 for Full Self-Driving capability based on Musk's repeated promises (going back to 2016) that the hardware was sufficient for full autonomy. As recently as 2022, Musk was publicly assuring owners that HW3 had the processing power to get it done.
BUT IT DIDN'T
Those promises are now officially broken.
The solution is a "discounted trade-in" toward a new car with Hardware 4.
Not a refund or a free upgrade...
A discount on buying ANOTHER Tesla.
Investor Ross Gerber said it too - all HW3 owners got screwed, and with roughly 285,000 FSD purchasers affected, the potential liability runs into the BILLIONS.
But that's not even the worst part.
Musk was asked if the current FSD v14.3 was ready for unsupervised deployment. He said yes. Then immediately walked it back and admitted Tesla has "major architectural improvements" in the pipeline that would significantly improve safety.
What he really means: the software isn't SAFE ENOUGH to deploy without a human watching. Full unsupervised FSD for consumer cars is pushed to Q4 2026. At the earliest... Maybe.
How many times has this deadline been pushed? I've lost count. And trust me, I've seen a lot of broken promises. But this one takes the cake.
Now let's talk about the numbers everyone is celebrating:
Tesla reported $22.4 billion in revenue and $0.41 in non-GAAP earnings. A "double beat." The stock popped 4% after hours. Victory, right?
WRONG
Dig into the actual filing:
The number one driver of operating income improvement wasn't cost reductions, wasn't volume growth, wasn't FSD revenue. It was - and Tesla listed this FIRST in their own shareholder letter - "one-time benefits related to warranty and tariffs."
They released warranty reserves. They booked tariff refund windfalls. They stretched supplier payments by 10 days. They took on billions in new debt. Then they presented everything through non-GAAP metrics that strip out over $1 billion in stock-based compensation.
GAAP net income was $477 million on $22.4 billion in revenue. That's a 2.1% net margin. On a $1.4 trillion market cap.
Let me put that in perspective:
3.75 billion shares outstanding. Annualize the Q1 GAAP profit and you get roughly $1.9 billion. That's a trailing P/E ratio north of 700. Use the adjusted number - strip out stock comp, which is a REAL cost to shareholders through dilution - and you're still at around 250x earnings.
All of this is extremely bad, but I didn't even talk about the CAPEX BOMB yet...
3 months ago, Tesla guided to "over $20 billion" in 2026 capital expenditure. Last night they raised it to over $25 billion. A $5 billion increase in a single quarter. That's 3x their historical annual capex run rate - $8.5 billion in 2025, $11.3 billion in 2024. The CFO confirmed on the call that Tesla expects NEGATIVE free cash flow for the rest of the year.
So you have a company generating roughly $6 billion in annual free cash flow on a good year, and they're about to spend $25 billion.
The math doesn't work.
They will almost certainly need to issue equity. Which means dilution. Which means the $1.9 billion in annual earnings gets spread across even MORE shares.
The core auto business is literally deteriorating in real time:
Tesla delivered 358,000 vehicles in Q1 (missed estimates again).
They produced 408,000. That's 50,000 cars sitting on lots that nobody bought.
Inventory days jumped from 10 to 27 in just a few quarters. California (their most important US market) saw registrations crash 24% year over year.
Their market share in the state fell from 9.2% to 7.7%. That's on top of a Q1 2025 that was ALREADY weak from Model Y retooling. They're declining off a decline.
And here's what really kills the bull case...
The entire valuation rests on robotaxis, Optimus robots, and autonomy. So let's put numbers on it:
Waymo - the actual leader in autonomous driving with 15 million completed rides in 2025 alone, over 127 million autonomous miles driven, operating commercially across 6 US cities with plans to expand to 20 more - just raised $16 billion at a $126 billion valuation.
That's the market's verdict on what the LEADING robotaxi company is worth. $126 billion.
And Waymo is YEARS ahead of Tesla in actual deployment.
Tesla has 3.75 billion shares outstanding. So even if you assign $126 billion in robotaxi value (giving Tesla full credit for matching Waymo despite being nowhere close) that's $33 a share. Add the auto business at generous auto-industry multiples, maybe $20 a share. Throw in energy storage and services, $10-15.
Sum of the parts gets you to roughly $65-70 a share if you're feeling generous. Maybe $50 if you're not.
The stock is $387.
So what exactly are you paying for?
You're paying for a STORY. You're paying for PROMISES that keep getting pushed back, technology that keeps falling short, and a business plan that requires spending $25 billion a year while the core product sells fewer units at declining margins in a market where California sales just fell 24% and the federal EV tax credit is gone.
I managed the number one mutual fund in America. I founded two billion-dollar hedge funds. I've been doing this since 1981.
And I am telling you:
Tesla at $387 is one of the most egregious mispricings I have seen in my entire career.
THE CRASH WILL BE EPIC
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