Simon in Capital

@LayahHeilpern the ceasefire bounce fading within hours is the market telling you it doesn't believe the ceasefire. price tests the level, gets rejected, and everyone who bought the headline is already underwater. patience isn't exciting but it's profitable

I said I didn't trust this ceasefire bounce and bet bitcoin wouldn't hold 66k. It tapped 66k and got rejected straight back to 63k. The bounce everyone was hoping for is already fading. Like I said, we’ve seen this movie playout 100s of times. We stay patient.

@virtualbacon this is the kind of discipline that separates people who survive in crypto from people who blow up once and never come back. shorting bitcoin is a widow maker trade. the asymmetry is always against you. finding the isolated weak name at a high is the only edge worth taking

i don't short bitcoin or any major alt even when i think we go lower. the only clean short is a coin that just printed a fresh all-time high while everything else is bleeding. tight stop right above the high, small size. everything else you just wait out.

@JoeCarlasare the difference is simple. FTX broke trust in an exchange. this is breaking trust in the asset. one is recoverable. the other rewrites the entire investment thesis. people aren't panic selling, they're calmly walking away. that's worse

I genuinely think bitcoin sentiment is worse now than it was during the FTX collapse. Back then, nearly every asset was struggling, and the cause was obvious: inflation / rising rates / brutal macro backdrop. This feels different, like a growing belief that the narratives that convinced people to buy Bitcoin have broken down

@Eggplant_Elon someone who held bitcoin since 2012 through every crash, hack, ban, and bear market just decided this was the price to buy more. that's not speculation, that's conviction backed by 14 years of watching everyone else panic and being right every time

👀 A Bitcoin wallet that has been completely silent since 2012 just woke up and bought 7,068 BTC worth ~$470 million. This is one of the original Bitcoin holders from the Satoshi era. After 14 years of HODLing through every cycle and crash, they came back online to buy this dip. But it's going to zero, right?

@PeterSchiff the fed trying to engineer the outcome that free markets produce on their own is the most expensive redundancy in economic history. every intervention creates a distortion that requires another intervention. the cycle never ends because ending it would make the fed irrelevant

Warsh said the Fed's goal is making economic growth, low prices, & strong employment mutually compatible. The Fed doesn't have to make that happen; it happens naturally under free market capitalism. The reason it doesn't happen is because central banks create too much inflation.

the mistake wasn't buying property, it was paying cash. real estate returns work because of leverage. $550k cash at 1-2% is terrible. $110k down on a mortgage while the other $440k compounds in the market is a completely different equation. the property didn't fail, the strategy did

Year 2 as a landlord of a rental property in the USA. I fucking hate it. Paid 550k cash. Fees are idiotic. Constantly something broken. Making 1-2% yearly max from rentals. Price didn't move so far. Sure it will at some point but I don't think I will make more than 100% in a decade. For me as a trader who can make 50-100% yearly on my account, this is the worst investment. I will dump that damn place soon and never again.

people think oil is just gas prices. it's not. it's fertilizer, plastics, pharmaceuticals, shipping, heating, and the entire global supply chain. when reserves run dry you're not just paying more at the pump, you're watching grocery shelves empty and medicine costs triple. that's why he took the deal

Not sure people understand the CATASTROPHIC consequences of the global oil reserves running dry. I think if more people grasped the fallout from that, they’d understand Trump’s desperation to take a bad deal. The mistake wasn’t ending it. The mistake was going to begin with.

@Bkclaims the part nobody mentions is that the person who wrote a $5 million check at a $4 billion valuation already had $50 million minimum. the returns are insane but the entry ticket was never available to anyone who actually needed a 200x to change their life 2

Just thinking about a guy who put $5–10 million into Anthropic at a $4–5 billion valuation. At today's ~$965 billion valuation, that's roughly a 200x. A $5–10 million check turns into ~$1–2 billion. Sometimes I think I'm a terrible investor. 😂

IPOs are always priced to pop. the bank and early investors need a first day surge to validate the listing and create momentum. the discount isn't generosity, it's the playbook. every major tech IPO in history was "underpriced" on day one.

@BoBbyPleWniaK IPOs are always priced to pop. the bank and early investors need a first day surge to validate the listing and create momentum. the discount isn't generosity, it's the playbook. every major tech IPO in history was "underpriced" on day one.

The market is telling $SPCX that they grossly undervalued the IPO. If people are this excited to buy over 170, why were the IPO shares issued at 135? I don’t think the executives at SpaceX are this generous. It seems fishy. If Elon truly believes in $1 trillion revenue by 2030, why discount the IPO shares? I’m not buying it. It doesn’t pass my bullshit meter.

"too committed to fail" is exactly what people said about housing in 2006. the buildout was real, the jobs were real, the economic activity was real. and then it failed anyway because the returns never matched the investment. AI could be different. but the argument that it can't fail because we need it to work is the weakest bull case possible

The entire economy feels like it’s being held up by AI and the associated buildout. At this point it feels like we’re too committed for it to fail. The alternative would likely be a major economic shock if not a broader market collapse. Imagine where the market would be if AI hadn’t gone mainstream in 2022. Hoping AI fails or betting against it is in many ways betting on an economic downturn unlike anything we’ve seen in a long time. Betting against the machine works one time in a bull market. The very top. Other than that, losing proposition.

@WifeFinance . "why isn't everyone doing this" because most 16 year olds have $47 in their savings account and their parents are living paycheck to paycheck. this is advice for trust fund kids disguised as a life hack

If you invest $100,000 by the age of 16 you can put that all in the SP500 and retire a multi-millionaire without ever investing another dollar It really is this simple. Why isn’t everyone doing this? 🤷‍♂️

sandisk just made history and not the kind investors should celebrate monthly RSI: 99.19. highest ever recorded for any US stock. ever the stock is up over 5,000% in a year. $2,000 a share. AI storage demand is real and sandisk is printing money from it. no argument there but a 99 RSI on the monthly chart is the market screaming that every possible buyer is already in. when there's nobody left to buy, you know what comes next this isn't a prediction. it's math. the higher the RSI the more violent the eventual mean reversion. and this RSI has no historical comparison because nothing has ever been this stretched the AI story is real. the price might be too. but the entry here is paying full price for a stock that has already priced in perfection for the next two years. one hiccup and the unwind will be fast

billionaire wealth at that scale is mostly ownership, not extracted labor a teacher trades time for a wage, paid by the clock. an owner holds equity that compounds while they sleep. that's why the hours decouple you aree mixing up income and wealth. the real line is about what you ownot how early you wake up

The Billionaires don’t wake up at 5am. Teachers, nurses, bus drivers, etc., wake up at 5am. Billionaires wake up whenever they want because their wealth doesn’t come from their own labor. It comes from the labor of people who will never be billionaires.

spacex opens today and musk crosses a trillion on paper. real milestone. also a mark, not money an ipo floats only a small slice of the company. the buyers setting today's price are transacting on maybe 5-10% of the shares, and that price gets stamped on 100% of the cap table, every locked insider included a +25% pop tells you about float scarcity, not the business. you're watching the price of the shares most people can't easily get it's the least liquid trillion in history, marked by the thinnest part of the book the wealth gets real the day he can actually sell it. until then it's a print

the honest part is that all three numbers are marks and none of them is money yet. $5.66m is stale, $12.6m is a price you also can't transact at. locked is locked the same illiquidity that let you in at $350b is what traps the exit now. you ride every tick of the public price with zero ability to act on it the only real number is whatever clears the day the lockup ends. everything before that is the show you said you're here to watch

the spacex ipo turned my $2.5m into $12.6m and i can't touch a single dollar of it. until today i've only shared my crypto portfolio. this is the first look at the other side of the book. backstory: when i sold my solana in january 2025, i rolled part of the winnings into spacex through a private equity fund. i invested $2.5m at a $350b valuation. $SPCX lists today at $1.77 trillion. zero genius involved here. i was fortunate. right place, right time. now the strange part. i'm locked up and can't sell a share. the private fund still marks the position at the $800b valuation, so even my own statement is behind reality. what i put in: $2.5m what my statement says: $5.66m (at the $800b mark) what the ipo price says: $12.6m screenshot below. fund name stays private. by the time the lockup ends this could be a very different number, up or down. i’m just here to watch the show

$50k to $500k/month with under 10k followers describes a real tier that exists, it also describes survivorship in a brutal way, for every person clearing $50k/month selling courses there are hundreds selling the same thing to nobody, "most of them have under 10k followers" frames the rare outcome as the typical one the deeper tell, a lot of the people loudest about this "hidden middle class" make their money selling you the course on how to join it, the meta-layer (courses about making money from courses) is where a chunk of that revenue actually comes from, the real opportunity exists, the framing is usually the pitch

There's a $500B middle class on the internet that nobody talks about. People doing $50K to $500K/month selling courses, software, templates, digital products & services, etc. Most of them have under 10,000 followers. That's where the real money on the internet lives.

@OddStockTrader the hyped consumer ipos with no earnings tend to fall while profitable or infrastructure names tend to work, the entry price and the fundamentals decide it, not the fact that it's an ipo

I honestly can't think of a SINGLE high profile IPO in the last decade that just printed higher after opening and for years after. Not one.

where's everyone putting money right now? still adding to ai names, buying crypto down here, rotating into real estate now that it's finally softened? i've trimmed a few positions and exited a couple ventures to free up dry powder, sitting on more cash than usual on purpose, not chasing the ipo game until the volatility settles, getting a clean entry in a market that swings 1.5% on a single headline is mostly luck right now the boring truth is "raise cash and wait for your pitch" beats forcing a trade in a tape this jumpy, curious where everyone else is leaning

points 3 and 4 are the actual story, the spend is clearly worth it where output is measurable (engineering, code that ships) and questionable everywhere else (apps nobody uses, redundant skills), the ROI splits cleanly along whether you can attribute the output the pricing cliff at 150 seats is also a deliberate funnel, the jump from seat-based to pure usage billing is where the vendor's margin lives, "3.5x overnight for the same usage" is the part every scaling company hits, the era ending isn't token-maxxing, it's token-maxxing without attribution, the spend continues where it's justified and gets capped where it isn't

Our Anthropic bill is about to jump from $400K → $1.4M/yr. Not because usage exploded, but because we're about to cross 150 seats. Past 150 seats you're forced into Enterprise tier. Seats stop including any usage, every token bills at standard API rates. At our current run rate that's 3.5x overnight. Unfiltered thoughts on AI spend: 1. We should spend tokens to grow as aggressively as possible. But most people (me included) aren't conscious of what they're spending. 2. Visibility comes first. People see their personal number and they're shocked. I accidentally spent $4,000 in 3 days in Claude Code. 3. For engineering the spend is clearly worth it. Pay for the best model, it saves more than it costs. 4. For a lot of other roles it's questionable. Apps nobody uses, skills someone already built. No ROI. 5. Spend limits are coming. We already require approval for more tokens on our support team. The era of token-maxxing is coming to an end.