Tackzone Research
177 posts

Tackzone Research
@tackzoneres
Unleashing growth through dynamic strategies.








💭 What’s wrong with this cycle?? | Big Picture #Bitcoin bottomed out in November 2022. It’s been ‘up only’ for $BTC since then. $OTHERSBTC has been going ‘down only’ all this time. This is why this cycle has been so bad for #Altcoin holders 📉🤮 But what exactly went wrong and when? 🤔 Let’s take a deep dive into the market structure ⬇️ In 2015-2017 & 2019-2021 $OTHERSBTC and $BTC were rising in sync, but this time it’s truly different. In the early stages of the Bull Cycle things looked very similar to the previous cycle. Take a look at two time periods: December 2018-August 2019 & November 2022-June 2023 $BTC bottoms out first, $OTHERSBTC makes a Lower Low in 6 months while $BTC rallies and switches the trend from Bear to Bull. So in that period of time we have a Divergence between $BTC & $OTHERSBTC. We had that in 2019 and we had that in 2023. August 2019 was the absolute bottom for $Alts against $BTC and we had a steady uptrend for the following 30 months! This cycle we were on track to repeat the same pattern: #BTC bottomed out first, then it rallied and switched the trend from Bear to Bull while $Alts printed a Lower Low. June 2023 was supposed to be the ultimate bottom for $ALT/BTC pairs! We had a decent run up from June to January 2024, but then something broke ❌ Do you know what happened in January 2024? F*cking #Bitcoin ETFs got approved. It’s been ‘down only’ for $Alts since then 📉😵💫 So now we have this giant Divergence between the price of #Bitcoin (sitting at the all-time high) and $OTHERSBTC (sitting at the 4-year low) 💁♂️ I believe that eventually this Divergence will play out just like the one in Dec2018-Aug2019, but on a much bigger scale. It will be a MULTI-YEAR Uptrend for $OTHERSBTC 📈 (probably next cycle | if talking about cycles is even appropriate now lol) _ So that’s why I was wrong on $Alts in general. The prior cycle’s playbook just didn’t fit this time 🤷♂️ Some $Alts like $SOL did exactly what I expected (made a new ATH), but that’s because coins like #Solana had a very strong narrative and they moved up with #BTC in sync. The rest are just waiting for a $BTC.D Meltdown and a steady $OTHERSBTC uptrend 📈


A Market Hedged in Fear Bitcoin trading below key cost basis levels signals demand exhaustion. Long-term holders are selling into strength, while rising put demand and higher volatility show a defensive market. Read the full Week On-Chain below👇 glassno.de/4o4jC55

1/ New data confirms: @Ethereum is the #1 ecosystem for new developers in 2025.

Smaller $BTC holders are stepping up. Strong accumulation is underway among small to mid-sized cohorts (1–1000 BTC), while large holders have slowed distribution, signaling renewed confidence in spite of the recent shakeout.

Altcoins 🚨 Exchange Inflow Transactions (7D sum) just spiked to 45,583 — the highest level in 4 weeks.

I want to be completely honest and straightforward about what I think: has the Bitcoin cycle and the market ended or not? The first thing I want to share is a reflection on whether the 4-year BTC cycle is really repeating. We've gone through many moments, and a lot of people say it’s not, claiming that due to global liquidity the 4-year cycle is over. The best chart to understand this is the Repetition Fractal Cycle, which makes it visually easy to see if we’ve reached the end of the cycle. This chart has been accurate since 2015, with a margin of error of less than 3 to 5 days for historical tops and less than 2 days for the historical bottoms of each cycle. Since the recent top was on October 6, it would be the first time this time window exceeds 6 days, as the top was expected, at minimum, between October 12 and 16. But looking at this specific chart, and considering that 4 years is a long time, it still maintains good accuracy. What I want to highlight in more detail is our proprietary chart called the Max Intersect SMA Model. This model condenses several moving averages and, remarkably, has hit every BTCUSD top exactly on the day of each ATH — which is shocking. But the question is: will it miss this cycle? I also remember the market deleveraging in September 2021, when many altcoins reached their all-time highs, and yet BTC went on to hit a new ATH on November 10, 2021. Over the past 3 years, on-chain analysis signals have also proven extremely accurate, favoring BTC purchases at better prices. The last signal was a sell, but on-chain signals can lag by several weeks, as happened in 2021. It’s always very complex to hit all historical points, which is why we created different metrics to map the market like no one else has. We can say that yesterday’s big liquidation was a sign that cycles are still highly respected. Some important analytical points: 1️⃣ There hasn’t been widespread euphoria yet. 2️⃣ Some metrics still indicate the possibility of a new ATH. 3️⃣ Total Market Cap is still tiny — it hasn’t even reached Nvidia’s market cap, showing that the crypto market is still in its infancy. 4️⃣ Mining metrics, fees, and many others are still at extremely low levels. It’s also worth mentioning that the current risk analysis looks very similar to the post-ATH period of 2021, where the risk/reward ratio was no longer favorable — especially for large investors who expect better returns. So here’s a reflection: will the market end and extend a bear market just because of a recent big liquidation? As usual, massive liquidations often form bottoms. Now, with BTC dominance rising, this shows that for some reason the market might extend a little longer, even if it’s just one more month. Don’t get discouraged: better days are coming! Charts: @Alphractal

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🟢 Only 24% of Binance Altcoins Are Above the 200-Day SMA When nearly 100% of altcoins trade above their 200-day SMA, it typically signals market euphoria — often aligning with Bitcoin cycle tops. Conversely, when this metric approaches 0%, meaning most altcoins are below the 200-day SMA, it usually marks strong accumulation opportunities. Right now, we’re still far from euphoria. This could mean that the current altcoin prices represent one of the best times to accumulate before the next major move. 🔗cryptoquant.com/insights/quick…







