Tad Helm

@Zerosumgame33 Call didn’t say anything positive or negative on debt but that it was extended a week.

$PROP Face of the 10K shows ~76M shares @ 3/25 up from ~60M shares outstanding in mid November.... my guess is they raised ~16M shares @ 1.75/sh average for ~$30M equity raise on the ATM. The balance of the Series F pref take-out will be a jr. debt deal for ~$100M. If so, this is a grand slam outcome and the stock rips higher.

@TheBroskiUSA @biancoresearch I’m not sure. No air force and no navy seems weaker.

@tadhelm @biancoresearch Lol yes now iranian regime can get 2x money from oil, this will surely weaken them

This would be an economic disaster.

@TheBroskiUSA @biancoresearch I’m certainly confused why we don’t steal their tankers and sell their oil unless it is a negotiation tactic.

@m18221742 @biancoresearch They are more interested in making money right now. Bullies must be dealt with. If negotiations don’t work then violence must do.

@tadhelm @biancoresearch Lemme guess: you would never enlist or allow your kids to enlist in this noble economic fight

@lofi_wizard @biancoresearch Sure. They knew this was a possibility. I’m not sure why we don’t rob their tankers and sell the oil for every one they destroy.

@tadhelm @biancoresearch Woulda been smart to plan ahead, no?

@earlymayredux @biancoresearch Possibly. What’s a racist theater kid?

@tadhelm @biancoresearch You’re brainwashed.

🇩🇪Absolute masterclass in road discipline on the German Autobahn! When traffic comes to a standstill, drivers instantly shift left and right to create a Rettungsgasse, a crystal-clear emergency corridor right down the middle, so ambulances, fire trucks, and rescue vehicles can fly through at full speed. It’s the law in Germany and Austria, and it literally saves lives. This is how you do it!

Yes. The poor will feel what the Iranian people have felt for decades. Hopefully allies will join the US in defeating this evil so the Iranians can flourish. The root issue is where are our allies in this struggle. Imagine attacking them from all four sides with overwhelming forces.

The world's poorest will bear the brunt of the energy crisis caused by the Iran War and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

@elonmusk A relationship with Jesus Christ can change thinking.

Mostly true

@DGretta_Author I’m looking forward to it. Then write an article on stock based compensation compared to operating cash flow.

I'm writing and publishing an article on stock dilution next weekend. Anyone got any diluted tickers send them my way. I ask that none of them start with the letter "I"

@jrouldz My hands are too cut up from catching falling knives.

$SNAP Safe to say the support line was lost 😅 anyone catching the falling knife here? 🫣

@realroseceline Too much allocated to one industry $Meli and $amzn

I came across a peculiar portfolio today, allocations are: $MELI → 24% $AMZN → 17% $MSCI → 14% $BRKB → 12% $NOW → 11% $SPGI → 9% $MA → 9% $DLO → 4% What do you guys think? 🌹

@realroseceline Good stuff. Why in this case do you think their SBC is fine compared with their cash flow? It seems to high after what you’ve posted in the past.

I agree, bullish on $TTD. Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. This is an elite business model with elite economics, strong growth, high margins, and high operating leverage. 🌹

@Zerosumgame33 You called it. So many insiders hadn’t sold and continued to buy.

$PROP Hudson Bay could have taken a pound of flesh of little ole' Prairie, instead agrees to $3 million termination fee. A deal is absolutely coming. Any deal is/was beter than Hudson converting @ $1.15. The short thesis was Hudson Bay ultimate takeover. Now ~8 million shorts are now trapped.

Grt article. You have no idea how credit worthy their borrowers truly are. I remember one local bank in particular that gave me huge constr. loans. I wish they had said no to me bc when 2007 hit those houses didn’t sell til I sold at losses. That bank is now gone. I survived barely

Thoughts on $SOFI & banking $SOFI looks simple on the surface. Deposits, loans, growth. It feels like a modern fintech version of a bank, cleaner, better, faster. But the reality is if you can’t explain the balance sheet, you don’t understand the business. And that’s where most investors get it wrong. The dangerous part is it feels understandable. The app is clean, the growth is visible, the story makes sense. But what you see on the surface is not where the risk exists. The risk exists underneath, inside the balance sheet, where small changes can change the entire economics of the business. This is not a SaaS company where revenue is revenue and margins are mostly a function of scale. In banking, revenue is a byproduct of a balance sheet that is constantly moving. You have assets, liabilities, cost of funds, duration, credit risk, all interacting at the same time. Small changes in one part can completely change the outcome. For example, if deposits reprice faster than loans, margins compress even if volume is growing. If credit quality weakens, those assets are not really worth what they look like on paper. Two banks can show the same growth and similar revenue, but underneath be completely different in terms of risk and long term earning power. That’s what makes this so hard to analyze and quite frankly to understand. A bank is not like a product company. It’s a spread sitting on top of a risk. That’s the simplest way to think about it. Everything comes down to how well they price risk, how stable their funding is, and how efficiently they can turn that spread into earnings without breaking the balance sheet. And here is the part most people miss. Growth in a bank is not always a good thing. In fact, growth can hide problems. If you are growing fast but underwriting is weakening or funding is getting more expensive, you are just scaling risk. It looks great in the numbers until it doesn’t. For too many smart investors fail to understand this truism. This is exactly why Buffett talks about stepping over 6 inch bars instead of jumping over 6 foot ones. It’s not that banks can’t be great businesses. Some of the best businesses in the world are banks. The issue is if you don’t understand the balance sheet, you’re not really investing, you’re trusting. And most people don’t even realize that’s what they’re doing. What makes $SOFI interesting is that people focus heavily on the growth. The member growth, the product expansion, the revenue. But in a business like this, growth without understanding the balance sheet can actually increase risk instead of reducing it. The faster you grow, the more important underwriting, funding mix, and risk management become. So the real question is not just how fast $SOFI can grow. It’s how durable that growth is once you look through the balance sheet. How stable are the deposits, how sensitive is the cost of funds, how are they pricing risk, and how will the business behave in a different rate environment or under credit stress. Those are the things that actually matter. That I never heard bulls talk about, largely all I heard is “growth”. You don’t need to understand every line of code to own $NVDA. Not understanding the code doesn’t break the thesis. But with a bank, if you don’t understand the balance sheet, you don’t understand the business. And that’s a very different game. Personally, I have a pretty simple rule when it comes to this. I don’t invest in banking or credit businesses, no matter how attractive they look on the surface. Not because they can’t be great businesses, but because they’re just too hard to truly understand. There are too many moving parts, too many ways to be wrong, and too much hidden risk sitting beneath what looks clean on the outside. Unless you have decades of banking experience, the smart move imho is to avoid the sector altogether. 🌹

1. Balance our budget 2. Install congress term limits 3. Enforce allies to put pressure on Iran and if not pull away slowly. I’d probably kill leaders when good intel comes in if not stopping their evil ways 4. Make an example of Epstein child molestors by hanging them. 5. One reply mentioned encouraging child birth.

let’s play a game: if you were dropped in as president right now and your overarching goal was to maintain global hegemony, what would you do?

@realroseceline @QualityInvest5 This is how twitter used to be. I’d be roasted to Aria.

@QualityInvest5 I follow you for the comedy, not the investment advice, otherwise I’d be poor. 🌹

For which stock’s coverage do you primarily follow me for?

@realroseceline What percentage of your investment would you invest in LATAM?

On the plane, bored (and scared of flying), ask me anything — GO! 🌹

@DimitryNakhla One thing I’ve discovered when I used lots of debt for my business that I wasn’t as careful with that debt. I was sloppy bc it wasn’t my money although I had to pay it back with interest.

At the time of writing 𝘞𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘐 𝘓𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘯𝘦𝘥 𝘈𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘐𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘍𝘳𝘰𝘮 𝘋𝘢𝘳𝘸𝘪𝘯, Pulak Prasad noted that only 10% of the companies in his fund had any debt. The other 90% had none. Why does Pulak detest debt? 🐝 1. 𝐒𝐮𝐫𝐯𝐢𝐯𝐚𝐥: “There is no point increasing returns on equity by a few percentage points if it compromises long-term survival.” 2. 𝐅𝐥𝐞𝐱𝐢𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲: “Debt diminishes strategic flexibility and therefore long-term value creation.” As Pulak explains further: “A strong balance sheet is not the one that maximizes debt to minimize the cost of capital, but the one that minimizes debt to maximize the safety of capital.”