Wiz

I think everyone feels thrashed this year. We were late in a cycle before Iran, and now traders are getting tumbled in the volatility of Trump tweets. My edge isn't your edge, so my risk mgmt won't match yours, but maybe my sentiment is still helpful. I am positioned for a unambitious, smallest drawdown wins, kind of year. When I look at my career performance, it's clear that I make all of the money in a handful of core ideas and leak almost all of the losses in ephemeral trades, especially late in a cycle. And the opportunity cost is even greater. I have fumbled many generational trades when I was distracted or shaken out by short term events. Avoiding tourist trades protects my capital and my psychology, and I need both to persevere core longs. The only place we can rationally work from is our edge. I am very curious about the conflict in Iran and the downstream effects but I cannot delude myself into thinking I have edge here. I can only acknowledge that uncertainty is extremely high and that I need to keep my risk and my ambition calibrated for that. So my approach is simple, even though it is hard for me to put in practice. * I am long my core ideas (mostly optics and memory) but in much smaller size, and the rest is in cash. * I had attempted hedges before the conflict with TLT + GLD but these were ineffective for this type of risk. I am not placing directional bets on this conflict. No puts, oil, fertilizer, etc. These are what I consider tourist trades in markets I know nothing about. Again, I am protecting my capital and my psychology to persevere core longs (and search for new ideas). I think the most important reminder for all of us is patience. Our future selves will be thankful for the extra capital and energy when easier ideas show up.

“No, I’m very happy for you that Robinhood listed your token. Oh … they just listed the perp? In Europe? You have a perp exchange, right? Did they use that? Oh that’s still nice tho. I saw that other guy got added to that government advisory committee”

gonna be a long winter for everyone. not just crypto.

INSIGHT: $HYPE is up 20.6% today following news it will support prediction markets trading under HIP-4.