Nasser

Limitless $LMTS Valuation Check. Let’s do a quick reality check on Limitless and see how it stacks up against the giants of the prediction market space, Polymarket and Kalshi. Over the first two weeks of October, Polymarket recorded about $1.9 billion in volume, Kalshi was just slightly behind at $1.86 billion, and Limitless came in at around $65.9 million. That gives Polymarket roughly 49.7% market share, Kalshi 48.5%, and Limitless about 1.7%. So in simple terms, for every $100 traded across all three platforms, Limitless accounts for less than $2, still small, but that’s the entire point of this valuation check. Now let’s look at how these platforms are valued. Polymarket’s most recent valuation priced it at around $15 billion, Kalshi’s was at $12 billion, while Limitless currently trades at a FDV of about $240 million. Keep in mind, those Polymarket and Kalshi numbers are VC valuations, that’s what investors were willing to pay for a share of the company, expecting to sell later at a higher market price. Limitless, meanwhile, trades at a live market valuation. If we compare how much you are paying for each $1 of trading volume, Polymarket comes in at about $7.88, Kalshi at $6.45, and Limitless at $3.64. So Limitless is clearly the cheapest among the three, trading at roughly half the multiple of Polymarket and Kalshi. If Limitless were priced at the same multiples as its peers, its implied valuation would be around $425 million using Kalshi’s ratio, or $519 million using Polymarket’s roughly 77% to 116% upside from current levels. Of course, we also have to acknowledge that both Polymarket and Kalshi probably deserve some premium for their brand name, reputation, and positioning. Polymarket, being the category leader, likely carries some goodwill premium baked into its valuation, and the same can be said for Kalshi as a well established name. But even after factoring that in, based purely on metrics, Limitless doesn’t look like a bad buy at these levels. Yes, a lot can still go wrong with the project itself, execution, or management, but based on where things stand now, the data suggests it’s undervalued relative to peers. #Polymarket #Kalshi #Limitless #PredictionMarkets