BCA Research

How much longer do you expect the Strait of Hormuz to be closed?

Bubbles take years to inflate and moments to pop. They often come about from regulation shifts years and decades before they burst. Here's gasoline to your Private Credit bubble. This is so unnecessary. @bcaresearch

The GeoMacro Beta report has droped

Despite the volatility, S&P 500 declines have been "comparatively modest." Chief US Equity Strategist @WeisbergerNoah says the time it's taken to reach just a 5% pullback could actually be an encouraging sign. 📈 S&P 500 futures up 0.5% this morning ⚠️ Steeper losses still possible ✅ But resilience in the face of an oil shock is notable Full take in @Bloomberg 👇 bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

This chart might trigger A LOT of people: Stocks ↓, BDCs ↑ The algo likes to reward controversy. Let’s test it.

Supply/demand is EVERYTHING. In Private Equity, I'm seeing a clear shift with increasingly more inbound emails and calls from GPs. The market is tightening, and LPs are in the driver's seat now. Why? 1. I don't manage capital, just independent research. GPs are reaching out to me for $... 2. Funds are closing 20-30% below target and 40-50% below max caps. These aren't first time funds, they are funds III and IV+ and in the Middle Market...

As has been the case for the past few months, the March BofA Fund Manager Survey showed that investors think that US companies are spending too much money on capex. As we saw with Meta in 2022, when investors start punishing the stocks of companies that they think are overinvesting, those companies will cut their capex plans, even if they have the financing to proceed.

How much longer do you expect the Strait of Hormuz to be closed?

New @MarketWatch column on the Iran war’s macro fallout. Key signals to watch: inflation expectations, oil–rates correlation, and commodity FX vs safe havens. Markets will tell us quickly whether the shock is inflationary or growth-negative. (Link in replies)

Everyone looking to travel for vaca right about now... instagram.com/reel/DVsII94As…

This isn’t just a shock, it’s a duration risk. @mgertken breaks it down.

Why is this spike different from all other spikes? Oil is up and the VIX has surged, but the S&P 500 selloff has been relatively modest versus past oil-driven volatility shocks. So far, markets appear to be hedging near-term risk not pricing a regime shift. The key question is whether the oil shock stays front-end heavy or starts to move further out the curve.

How long will the Iran war last? Chief Strategist @Geo_papic has a formula for that. Iran's pain threshold minus U.S. bombing intensity minus the rest of the world's response = time left in the conflict. His base case: 60% probability the war ends in ~2 weeks. 🛢️ Hormuz reopening sooner than markets think 🚢 India, France, Italy & Pakistan already moving to escort tankers 💻 Full breakdown on the Geopolitical Cousins podcast Via @MarketWatch 👇 marketwatch.com/story/strategi…

Amid three weeks of losses, there's reason for cautious optimism. Chief Strategist @Geo_papic says Iran will ultimately be forced to capitulate. Keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed indefinitely simply isn't realistic. 🚢 A global naval coalition, like the 1980s Tanker Wars, is likely to form 🏛️ Trump has strong domestic incentive to bring gas prices down ⏳ The question is when, not if Full take in @Barrons 👇 barrons.com/articles/stock…

Markets are trading oil, not fundamentals. @BudaghyanArthur on the real driver.

Inflation fears everywhere, especially with oil…but #potatoes are deflating 🥔 Rising gas + cheaper potatoes (my favorite food) = my own version of disinflation Happy St. Patrick’s Day! 🍀

Traders spinning out of a Multi-Strategy platform: (1) lose the cushion they had during drawdowns, and (2) pick up the burden of constant investor communication The Hedge Fund space is getting bloated again

Thank you to everyone who joined our events in Shanghai, Beijing, and Tokyo last week with @Garry_Evans, Head of Research Solutions at BCA Research. The discussions were thoughtful and timely, covering the Iran war, the outlook for the US dollar, oil price risks, AI bubble concerns, central bank rate cuts, gold, and distressed debt opportunities.

On a recent Geopolitical Cousins episode I mentioned that BCA Research has opened its Gulf War dashboard to all users, including non-clients. Below is the promised link. Let us know if you'd want us to include some other data here. bcaresearch.com/collection/bca…

Either Iran is holding back capacity in order to threaten Hormuz and Gulf energy production... or...

I am debating putting this into the BCA Hormuz Crisis dashboard... for the "it's all connected" crowd... Thoughts?