Case Research retweetledi
I have no idea what the State of Cal’s arguments are going to be to oppose the DPA action here given the news but I doubt they are going to be very good haha
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Long $SOC
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Case Research
1.6K posts
Case Research
@case_rsrch
https://t.co/njj5DBBzOx
London Katılım Aralık 2024
269 Takip Edilen280 Takipçiler
@Bkclaims The market will do as the market will see fit. Sometimes it's like we're shouting to the void
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Everyone sees “$22bn valuation” headlines and assumes that’s the real price. It’s not.
Late-stage venture rounds are often loaded with liquidation preferences, ratchets, and other protections.
The new money isn’t taking common equity risk - it’s getting paid back first.
If the company exits below that headline number, those investors still get their capital (sometimes more) before common sees anything. In some cases, you even get anti-dilution that further crushes earlier http://holders.
So what looks like “equity at $22bn” is often closer to structured capital - think debt with equity upside.
Meanwhile, people are buying common on secondary platforms at “discounts” to these marks… without realizing they’re sitting behind a stack of preferred that fundamentally changes the payoff.
Headline valuations ≠ economic reality.
Kalshi raises over $1 billion at $22 billion valuation in ongoing Coatue-led round:
theblock.co/post/394498/ka…
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Case Research retweetledi
Case Research retweetledi
Zenith Energy | Equity Research Report | Case Research open.substack.com/pub/caseresear…
Basic idea is:
Company: Zenith Energy
Recommendation: Long
Upside: 1,953% (GBP 0.04 —> 0.78)
Timeline: 5 Years
Risks: Statistically unlikely to play out
Reason for Discount: Mispriced legal win probabilities
Litigation Funding: None
Margin: Operating Business Written-Off
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Selloff on the way (profit taking)
Note: we don't think technical analysis does much good here - it's event drive, so who bloody cares what's happened so far
Share_Talk ™@Share_Talk
Market Summary > @zenithenergyltd LON #ZEN 8.00 GBX+2.00 (33.33%)⤴️ 17 Mar, 18:05 GMT • Disclaimer Strong run from lower levels with multiple targets 3.3p, 5p, 6.8p cleared - fresh target set at 11p by the end of next month or sooner. With a best-case extension to around 14.6p (the top of the July gap) if arbitrage or corporate news fuels further momentum. share-talk.com/traders-cafe-w… via @ZaksTradersCafe
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Case Research retweetledi
Oh go on...@caseresearch" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">substack.com/@caseresearch
If you like... Free Special Situations Research... We currently focus on Legal Cases (ICSID, UNCITRAL etc). We Appreciate: mispricing, asymmetry, aligned incentives, and simplicity. We provide: Writeups, Case Studies, Value Traps, and Mental Models.
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A very underrated, and uncorrelated, value driver
Undervalued-Shares.com@uv_shares
Litigation can move stocks. Patent disputes. Mining arbitration. Litigation finance. These legal battles can create huge public market opportunities – if you know where to look. At Litigation Investing & Legal Special Situations, experts across law, finance, and specialist asset management shared how they find them. Highlights included: ✅ @MaaizKhan (2x2 Capital) – The patent stock that runs like a hedge fund ✅ @mgbolts – A timely deep dive on @PantheraPlc ✅ @Delta9Echo (Rock & Turner) – @manoleteplc as a case study in how litigation finance evolves into private-equity-style investing ✅ Emma Beatty – Mining arbitration disputes as public market catalysts ✅ @JonathanShafter – Deploying AI for investing in litigation Missed the live event? The full presentations, slide decks, and additional materials are now available on demand. Get instant access 👇 undervalued-shares.com/special-offers…
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Zenith energy this week...
Undervalued-Shares.com@uv_shares
Litigation can move stocks. Patent disputes. Mining arbitration. Litigation finance. These legal battles can create huge public market opportunities – if you know where to look. At Litigation Investing & Legal Special Situations, experts across law, finance, and specialist asset management shared how they find them. Highlights included: ✅ @MaaizKhan (2x2 Capital) – The patent stock that runs like a hedge fund ✅ @mgbolts – A timely deep dive on @PantheraPlc ✅ @Delta9Echo (Rock & Turner) – @manoleteplc as a case study in how litigation finance evolves into private-equity-style investing ✅ Emma Beatty – Mining arbitration disputes as public market catalysts ✅ @JonathanShafter – Deploying AI for investing in litigation Missed the live event? The full presentations, slide decks, and additional materials are now available on demand. Get instant access 👇 undervalued-shares.com/special-offers…
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Passed on a Ukranian arbitration claimant this morning because the ownership structure is really complex, but there's something to be learnt here...
For god's sakes, check if minority shareholders are likely to recieve any of the claim proceeds. Always question the incentives
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Fin media these days is basically three words:
AI
Software
Gold
That's it. And yet everything will go to shit based on those few levers
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The world is in such a rapid state of change, and everyone is trying to keep up, that we're probably going to get some serious market downturns because of it. All these so called investors are all piling in on things related to wars and AI, and they feel intelligent because they're joining in the conversation. It's quite the opposite - sure you can beat the market taking advantage of catalysts like this, but it's bloody difficult
Mr.Paul@shravanrayhaan
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Reminds me a bit of Saker Aviation $SKAS - the shitco that refuses to liquidate as management take some cash for themselves
Arbitration News@Arbitration
Arbitration World: Mediation of Aviation Disputes – The Mediation Rules of the Hague Court of Arbitration for Aviation jdsupra.com/legalnews/arbi… | by @KLGates #ADR
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This is actually a very good point. People's attention spans are pretty bad these days. We have developed a great advantage by having the attention span to read a few legal documents every now and then. Ridiculous how hard we are throwing the human brain into the ground... You can't outperform on 10 seconds of due diligence guys
Brandon Beylo@marketplunger1
It’s amazing that one competitive advantage is just having an attention span beyond 12 seconds.
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This is a good demonstration of the incredible world of private assets. Get inventive guys
Thomas Braziel@Bkclaims
Trump tariff refunds are real… and most people still don’t know they exist. If you imported goods and paid those “IEEPA” tariffs, you likely have a claim. We’re buying them. Simple. 👉 60–70% upfront 👉 Fast diligence 👉 No headaches dealing with brokers / ACE / filings Come one, come all. DM me if you think you’ve got exposure.
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Tomorrow we will be releasing our full arbitration valuation model (can be used for e.g. Panthera Resources, or Zenith Energy). No more napkin maths, dumb assumptions, or general guesswork. All diligent investors in the space will now have a permanent solution, freely editable, based on the methodology we have built over the last few years.
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Case Research retweetledi
Zenith Energy, at 15% cost base of the Case Research Portfolio, is resopnding very well to Tunisia missing the annulment deadline. Much more to come!
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Case Research retweetledi
I called it in the first week of Jan, when the stock was at C$0.085. I released a full research report a week later, when the stock was at C$0.14. The great thing here is that I think the best is yet to come for #Homeland ! caseresources.substack.com/p/homeland-nic… $SHL.V $SRCGF
Justin Millette@jmillette77
Anyone have a junior mining stock holding in Homeland Nickel? The shares has gained 400% YTD! $SHL.v $SRCGF
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