Cetera Investment Management

Overall mortgage applications fell 2.3% last week. With mortgage rates elevated at 6.56%, the appetite for riskier loans has increased, with adjustable-rate mortgages (ARM) now comprising 10% of total applications.

Now Live: Cetera Sector Insights See which sectors outperformedand which ones lagged in our latest market breakdown. We dissect where strength is building and where caution may be warranted so you can stay ahead of the curve. cetera.com/files/market-i…

The S&P 500 is up 16.7% from March lows, with the top 10 weight rising from 37.3% to 40.9% but still below the 2025 peak of 41.6%. The growth driven by these top 10 companies partially supports higher valuations, but it also increases concentration risk.

Cetera (@CeteraFinancial) CIO @GeneGoldman shared insights with @Bloomberg on why something has to give between the contrasting directions of equities and bonds. Read more here: bloom.bg/4dw3vJs

A quieter market week is setting the stage for something bigger. Fed signals, fresh leadership, and inflation trends all coming into focus. Stay tuned—this is where clarity begins. CIO @GeneGoldman explains in #TheWeekAhead

Yields rose across the curve last week as higher energy prices fed into #inflation expectations. The 30 year yield reached 5.12%, surpassing its 2023 highs, while the 10 year climbed to 4.59%, still well below its 2023 peak of 4.99%. #bonds

Jerome Powell's tenure as Fed Chair ends today. The S&P 500's annualized gain of 14.7% under Powell is second only to Paul Volcker since 1970 for tenures exceeding 4 years. Returns have varied widely and reflect a range of economic and market factors.

The current economic expansion is now 6 years old and just a month away from becoming the 5th longest post-WWII expansion. While the average post-war expansion is 64 months, the 4 prior expansions lasted an average of 103 months.

We are at the midpoint of Q2, and the S&P 500 is already up 15%. The gains have been largely driven by 2 sectors, Tech (+31%) and Communication Services (+21%). The other 9 sectors are lagging the broader index, while Utilities and Energy are in the red.

The S&P 500 continues to climb into new record territory, but participation is narrowing. The Advance/Decline line is moving in the opposite direction of the broader index, signaling weakening breadth as more stocks trend lower than higher.

Markets are high, risks are real—but so are opportunities. With solid growth and cash on the sidelines, pullbacks don’t have to be scary. Staying flexible and opportunistic still matters. Read more cetera.com/files/market-i…

Retail sales rose 0.5% last month, matching expectations. Sales excluding gas increased by just 0.3%. While spending didn’t keep pace with April’s 0.6% inflation reading, control group sales (key GDP input) rose 0.5%, slightly ahead of expectations.

The 2-year treasury yield has risen to 4.0% and now sits above the fed funds effective rate of 3.63%. This suggests markets are pricing in the possibility of rate hikes. A rising 2-year yield often precedes higher rates, as the chart demonstrates.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) surged 1.4% in April, far outpacing expectations of +0.5%, pushing the annual rate to a 40-month high of 6.0%. Price pressures weren’t limited to energy. Final demand services increased the most since March 2022.

Wages are no longer outpacing inflation, with real weekly earnings turning negative for the first time since May 2023. If disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist, inflationary pressures could further erode consumer purchasing power.

Headline CPI inflation rose 0.6% in April, matching expectations, while the annual rate increased to a 3-year high of 3.8%. Core CPI inflation rose 0.4% M/M, above expectations (+0.3%), lifting the annual rate to 2.8%.

Federal government employment has declined by 345K since early 2025 when DOGE-related workforce cuts began. Federal headcount is at a 60-year low of 2.67 million. Since the early 1950s, federal employment as a % of the workforce has fallen from 5% to 1.7%.

CPI hits Tuesday. PPI follows Wednesday. With elevated energy costs and sticky services prices, the data could surprise—and influence how long the Fed stays on hold. CIO @GeneGoldman breaks down what to watch and why it matters for markets in #TheWeekAhead. #weekahead" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">cetera.com/research-and-i…

The S&P 500 is up 74.8% over the last 5 years compared to a 26% gain for the Russell 2000. Higher inflation and interest rates have been a bigger headwind for small cap stocks, although relative strength has swung in their favor this year.