Harish M

இன்றோடு எங்கள் கணிப்புகளை வெளியிட்டு ஓராண்டாகிறது. திமுக ஆட்சிக்கு வரும் என சொன்ன போது, அதிமுகவினரும், அதிமுக கூட்டணியாக 85 இடங்கள் வரை வெல்லும் என சொன்ன போது திமுகவினரும் கடுமையான வார்த்தைகளை என் மீது முன்வைத்த அந்த நாள், இந்நாள் தான். (1/7) #SpickMedia #TamilNadu

Clear mandate for TVK, traditional Dravidian giants pushed to second and third. #TVKVijay‌ - 108 #DMK - 59 #AIADMK - 47 #Congress - 5 #PMK - 4 IUML - 2 CPI - 2 CPM - 2 VCK - 2 #BJP - 1 #AMMK - 1 #DMDK - 1

Periyakaruppan lost by a margin of just a single vote. #DMK #TVKVijay

TVK (#TVKVijay) has clearly cut into the core vote bases of both #DMK and #AIADMK. They've secured around 20 seats in constituencies where the Gounder population exceeds 30%, along with 23 SC/ST reserved seats. In addition, they've won 13 seats in Thevar dominated regions and 27 in Vanniyar-heavy belts, pointing to a broad, cross community consolidation rather than a limited swing. On the other hand, DMK's biggest setbacks have come from the Vanniyar belt (18 seats), followed by the Gounder belt (9 seats), Thevar belt (7 seats), Nadar belt (2 seats), and 15 SC seats. AIADMK has also taken a hit, losing the Kongu belt (11 seats), along with losses in the Thevar belt (6 seats), Nadar belt (2 seats), 8 SC seats, and 1 ST seat. In urban heavy constituencies, DMK has suffered the most, losing 57 seats, while AIADMK has lost 24. In rural heavy areas, DMK has lost 28 seats, with AIADMK gaining just 2 of them, while TVK has captured a dominant 26. Urban voters have moved away from DMK in large numbers, but that shift hasn't translated into gains for AIADMK, much of it has gone to TVK. In rural areas, the shift is even more decisive, with TVK emerging as the primary beneficiary of DMK's decline, while AIADMK has struggled to capitalize. This isn't a routine electoral swing. It signals that TVK is no longer just a spoiler, it's positioning itself as a serious alternative across both urban and rural Tamilnadu.

@__mk11_ I was… but what can I do when the data says otherwise..

@chnmharish Bro I believe u did the opinion polls with utmost genuinety, I do have a doubt. Didn't u get surprised when it showed more young women voters supporting ADMK instead of TVK in ur data. That error was so glaring

When someone gets carried away, even luck won't stand by them, the #Mannargudi election result shows that clearly. When people asked for a white paper, #DMK's TRB Rajaa responded with a blank sheet. Now, after the loss, it feels like that same blank has come back to define his own result. After 1991 election, Mannargudi has now shown a clear shift once again.

So, #AIADMK feels completely done and dusted. Never expected this fate for a party with such a strong legacy under MGR and later led by Jayalalithaa. At the same time, there's a sense of satisfaction that #DMK is no longer in power. I often had to hold back from posting many things due to the fear that cases might be filed. At times, even when complaints were made, a few kind hearted people stepped in and helped get them withdrawn. In that sense, DMK's defeat has brought me immense happiness. Welcoming #TVKVijay‌ and embracing the change.

I'm concerned about those who put money on #Polymarket expecting a #DMK victory, many could have lost lakhs.

What I heard before the election was that some IAS officers had advised #DMK leader #MKStalin to shift to a different constituency. However, it was Sekar Babu who strongly insisted that he should contest from Kolathur and even took full responsibility for that seat. Now, the outcome is striking, Sekar Babu has won, but MK Stalin has lost.

10 seats in Coimbatore and the #AIADMK has just won 1 seat. I said ADMK is losing seats, in Coimbatore and, that's why I think the Kongu belt can be a surprise. Without PMK even EPS would have lost. #TVKVijay #PMK #Coimbatore

My friend @arun10venkat of Chanakya predicted a strong TVK showing in some Coimbatore segments. I am not surprised by their performance in Kavundapalayam, Singanallur and Kinathukadavu where the party is currently leading/has won. Well done bro! In fact the Idam Valam survey @chnmharish had also indicated this.

If the ECI data reflects the true picture, then #TVKVijay has gone a step beyond Puratchi Thalaivar MGR. While MGR secured around 30% vote share in his first election after founding AIADMK, Vijay has managed to reach nearly 34% in TVK's debut election, according to ECI updates.

The candidate didn't matter, #TVKVijay was the decisive factor in this election. A sitting Chief Minister has lost, and over 20 sitting ministers have been defeated. This result feels reminiscent of the 1996 Assembly election. If #AIADMK had formed an alliance with TVK before the election, it could have been a clean sweep, 234 out of 234. AIADMK has effectively lost its position as the principal opposition. Edappadi Palaniswami was the only leader who campaigned extensively across all 234 constituencies, yet the party still faced defeat. That points to a deeper issue, people seem to have lost faith in much of AIADMK's second line leadership. At the very least, this is the moment for the party to bring younger leaders into key positions if it wants to survive. The expected vote transfer between AIADMK and #BJP didn't materialize. I had pointed this out right after the exit polls. While AIADMK - AMMK vote transfer worked to some extent in the delta region, it failed badly in the southern belt. The AIADMK - #PMK vote transfer seems to be the only factor that has somewhat held the party together. It may be hard to accept, but this is the reality reflected in the results.

SC, ST, OBC, and Thevar votes have largely shifted toward TVK, indicating that the election is no longer being driven purely by caste dynamics. #TVKVijay #TNElections2026

Congress functionary Jayakumar Dhanasingh's death has finally seen justice. Ruby Manoharan has been defeated. Tamilnadu #Congress state president Selvaperunthagai, who failed to secure justice for Jayakumar Dhanasingh's death, has also faced defeat 👍🏾

We now have two #Brahmin MLAs in the Assembly, both from Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam. Glad to see some level of representation today. I'm really happy about this, good to see that representation coming through. #TVKVijay‌

Congratulations @gopison ❤️💐

I got it right that #TVKVijay‌ would split votes from #DMK and also make inroads into the Kongu belt, impacting #AIADMK's vote share. But the scale of that impact on ADMK in the Kongu region has turned out to be much bigger than I expected. Even during the survey video, I mentioned that TVK's entry would hurt ADMK in the Kongu belt, now it's clearly significant. Overall, glad to see the state moving towards a new government.

Congratulations CM @TVKVijayHQ ❤️💐 #TVKVijay Our prediction didn't hold up. We missed reading the mood of the silent voters. Congratulations to everyone who has won, and to those on track to win.

Thank you, Tamilnadu ❤️ Glad to see DMK pushed down to third place, that's a welcome change. Feeling really happy about this result. I'm also really happy to see @RameshOffcl brother leading in Srirangam 👍🏾😊 #TNElections2026

@ajakster @Spick_Media 🙏🏾

@chnmharish Big day for your hard work and honesty and process.. May the results be the fruit you desired.. 🙏 @Spick_Media