David Leonhardt
24.1K posts
@DLeonhardt
Senior writer, N.Y. Times. Author, "Ours Was the Shining Future: The Story of the American Dream." Best book of the year, Atlantic, FT & TNR. Now in paperback.
You’d think if the “avoid moving to the center on social issues and just go really hard left on economic issues” strategy worked out there would be at least one Democrat holding a seat in a Trump district who adhered to it but nope
The immigrant piece of this is really important. If you take this ecological regression literally, voters born outside the US swung 23% pp against Democrats in 2024, 14% more than you'd expect from race and education, making up more than half of the net votes lost since 2020.
Not sure this means what you think it means.
"Today [2024] 12.6% of the population is foreign-born, up from 10.5% [in 2019] when [center-left] Frederiksen took office." That's ~0.4% of total population increase in the migrant stock *each year.* A sign, perhaps, that what matters is to get the rhetoric right?
@DLeonhardt Also, the UK went left.
After more than seven years @nytimes, I’m thrilled to be joining @BostonGlobe to write Starting Point, the paper’s flagship email newsletter. I’m psyched to get back to my New England roots, and I’ll start writing in the coming weeks
“her dearth of swing-voter appeal” Harris overperformed in swing states! She did close to 3 pts better in swing states than she did nationally
