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the crypto bubble has burst. this is the dot-com bubble burst moment - it is happening now. we are in it. do you feel the soap around you?
everything we knew 6-12 mos ago about valuations, revenue & usage projections, grant sizes, employee comp, will be fundamentally different from here on out
this is a news-flash: crypto/web3/decentralized things are not *currently* as valuable as we think they are. our work is not materially valued by the layman, the financier or even our families, especially in this economy.
many tokens, protocols & private cos will survive, some existing & new business models will thrive! but most existing tokens will continue to reprice towards $0. we were arrogant to think this period of abundance would last - myself included. this is just how cycles go, cost cutting & right-sizing is not an option it is now a requirement. many VCs, partners, grants & salary recipients will maintain backwards-looking assumptions about the value of their work. as a result, capital & talent flight is inevitable because opportunity cost.
if you think we're at the bottom, haha there's a sinkhole underneath us baby - it took cisco 25 years, microsoft 15 years, amazon 9 years & apple 5 years to return to peak dot-com bubble valuations. we should anticipate similar for most, some will never return and a select few will grow beyond crypto-bubble dreams! this isn't a price prediction - it's a reality check on how we should view timelines of various assets & efforts, so we can manage expectations effectively
it's like a big storm came through our garden and washed away the beautiful flowers we grew - but there is still significant value in the hearty soil, the nutrients, the fortified roots - the best thing we can do now is nurture the substrate that survived, water the remaining buds & plant new seeds - these will be storm-resistant, having learned from mistakes past
crypto isn't dead, it's just rerating to the real world, buckle up
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