Faisal Islam

Hello all - I’m back on here, back in economics and after a few weeks wilfully getting lost in transit, am newly on here👇🏾, and shortly on air in a new role as Economics Editor of the BBC.. first take on data, trade wars, Brexit, fiscal gymnastics...👋 bbc.co.uk/news/business-…

NEW Energy price cap up 13% from July, 24% for gas and 5% on electricity… Like for like a typical household annual dual fuel bill would be £1,862 (up from £1,641) but it depends on how much energy actually used. From July Ofgem will also change its calculation for typical energy use (it does this every few years) to reflect reduced “typical” energy use “around 7% less electricity and 17% less gas compared to the last review” so the updated typical price cap level from 1 July will be £1,663 per year.

Other sovereigns also down double digit….

NEW 10y gilt yield fell sharply on better inflation figures down 13 basis points and dipped below 5% now close to close at 4.99% … reversing last weeks uncertainty related rises…

NEW Expect UK-Gulf Cooperation Council free trade deal to be signed as soon as today, opening up potential wins for UK exports of cars and food in particular. Relatively modest modelled boost to GDP, but the first GCC deal with a G7 nation. Interesting in and of itself and also given renewed Brexit debate - wouldn’t be possible in customs union, will be under Govts “closer to single market” strategy

Can’t begrudge Arsenal after all these years… although their corners are a disgrace (!). Great to see 5 years after that Wembley final, Saka and Rashford champions in the same year… go and win the World Cup now lads!

NEW Chancellor announces new restriction on use of judicial review for “critical infrastructure” clean energy projects - ie wind and nuclear - and time limitation for other projects, roads, rail and reservoirs - this is in addition to the streamlining of the process in the planning law. Will curb environmental challenges to big infrastructure plans.

Literally just as underlying inflation finally comes down from the historic peaks around the Ukraine energy shock towards target, the Iran War shock and Hormuz blockade hits…

UK CPI inflation now below Germany too…. Again - encouraging in April but before the full hit from Iran… The input Producer Prices Index showed that in the pipeline - highest input prices +7.7% since Feb 2023… driven by 75% annual increase in crude oil inputs…

NEW Inflation eases from 3.3% to 2.8% in year to April, with falls in domestic energy and other bills (water, VED) last month counteracted by a rise in petrol prices… Core inflation 2.5% vs 3.1%… services 3.2% vs 4.5% … Lowest services inflation since January 2022 - key indicator for Bank of England… Lowest core inflation since July 2021 Good set of figures before the inevitable upwards turn from full impact of Iran war, especially on domestic bills.

NEW UK has just loosened sanctions on imports of jet fuel and diesel derived from Russian oil, refined into third countries. “Temporarily” the government says but no time period specified. Will allow imports from Indian refineries. Gov says it is still overall strengthening sanctions in order to pressurise Kremlin over Ukraine, but this appears a significant prioritisation of cost of living pressures from one of the most hawkish Goverments on sanctions. "We are committed to strengthening our sanctions on Russia to degrade its ability to wage war in Ukraine, whilst protecting critical supply chains and maintaining market stability,” spokesperson says. The sanctions are designed to put pressure on Russia by limiting revenue to its state coffers. Rapid rises in jet fuel and diesel have added to inflationary pressures in the UK and around the world. The US offered a similar waiver earlier this week.

@AnnieCricket London!

@faisalislam Are you in India?

Alfonso the Great…

@ChrisRGollop @matthewsyed @JohnRentoul @emilysheffield @cleowatson88 @LucyTrims @confidencenac @BBCSimonJack @anaboultertv @kitty_donaldson @MerrynSW That’s one reading.

@faisalislam Or. There are a lot of cabinet jobsworths scurrying around finally getting their arses into gear in order to impress a new incoming boss. @matthewsyed @JohnRentoul @emilysheffield @cleowatson88 @LucyTrims @confidencenac @BBCSimonJack @anaboultertv @kitty_donaldson @MerrynSW

👀 There is a remarkable number of Government policies being prepped for announcement in the coming days… the Cabinet write-arounds have gone into overdrive as ministers try to get policies over the line…

It’s going to be like Fever Pitch all over again….

Blimey…

Could be interpreted a number of ways, but not uninteresting… The leading indicator I’m intrigued by: will the PM, longstanding season ticket holder, go to Budapest for the Champions League Final?

NEW There have been discussions between the Treasury and supermarkets on easing cost of living pressures and rising pressures… understand that in return for easing regulatory burdens for example on packaging and elsewhere Govt was looking for commitments to freeze prices on a number of essentials, but no agreement yet, and some supermarkets clearly very unhappy… Chancellor did keep on referencing Coop’s “Back Britain” price cut campaign after the Budget last year… unearthed by @AArmstrong_says in FT

NEW Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander announces that the new lower speed curtailed HS2 trains between Old Oak Common and Brum will not run start running for at least a decade, and might not start until.. 2039.

Just about to do a one hour phone in on the economy on You and Yours with the legendary Winifred Robinson… lots of questions about confidence, crises & media doom-mongery… Tune in! @BBCRadio4