Jerry Neumann

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Jerry Neumann

Jerry Neumann

@ganeumann

Katılım Ekim 2008
1.1K Takip Edilen26.2K Takipçiler
Jerry Neumann
Jerry Neumann@ganeumann·
This is great reading
Colossus@colossusmag

We're publishing an exclusive chapter from @scmallaby's brilliant new book about Demis Hassabis and DeepMind. This is the inside story of Project Mario. How DeepMind's co-founders spent 4 years trying every mechanism they could think of to put guardrails around AGI, only to watch each one fail, and conclude that the only safeguard was themselves. It reveals that Hassabis ran a secret hedge fund team inside DeepMind trying to beat Renaissance Technologies; Mustafa Suleyman assembled lawyers for a $5 billion walkaway plan; Reid Hoffman committed $1 billion of his personal fortune to back them; Google kept saying yes and no at the same time—and the endless negotiations left Hassabis so distracted that when the transformer paper dropped in 2017, he was less alert to its significance than he might have been. Meanwhile, OpenAI was fighting the mirror-image battle with Musk, Altman, and Sutskever tearing each other apart over the same question: who gets to control AGI? Musk proposed folding OpenAI into Tesla. When that failed, he stormed out. When OpenAI's nonprofit board finally tried to assert authority in 2023, it was crushed in days. Both camps arrived at the same unsettling conclusion, that governance structures don't hold. The best safeguard either side could come up with? Trust us. Read the chapter in the link below.

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Jerry Neumann
Jerry Neumann@ganeumann·
@naveenpalli (And if they are tested and they are shown to make a difference, I will be the first one celebrating: I would like to have a way to make entrepreneurs successful that we can adopt and improve)
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Jerry Neumann
Jerry Neumann@ganeumann·
@naveenpalli But, really, I think that if anyone wants to claim that these methods work, they're going to have to test them. There's no reason we should believe they work without that testing
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Jerry Neumann retweetledi
Jerry Neumann
Jerry Neumann@ganeumann·
This chart has been bothering me for a while. Why, with all the new methods we have to build startups, have failure rates stayed the same? So I wrote about it
Jerry Neumann tweet media
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Jerry Neumann
Jerry Neumann@ganeumann·
@Coeluh I should add that, personally, I believe entrepreneurship should strive to be a positive science. But also that the framework I operate under--generally, Knight and his followers--does not believe it to be one. The essay is part of a long-standing attempt to reconcile that
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Jerry Neumann
Jerry Neumann@ganeumann·
@Coeluh My argument is that if the data we have supports the null hypothesis, we have to take seriously that these ideas do not work and their proponents have to do more work to claim they do
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Jerry Neumann
Jerry Neumann@ganeumann·
@seanlinehan Fair enough. But failing fast should then show up as an *decrease* in the success rate (it is per company, not entrepreneur) and this doesn't happen either. This was the really perplexing thing to me: the lack of effect either way
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Sean Linehan
Sean Linehan@seanlinehan·
@ganeumann As a current entrepreneur, I would definitely consider failing faster a success relative to failing slowly. Though of course, massively less preferable than the business working!
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Jerry Neumann
Jerry Neumann@ganeumann·
@seanlinehan And, on your last point. I agree that there is inherent variability in what founders will build even following the same methods. But this leads to the thought that perhaps it is the variability that should be sought, not adherence to the methods. And that's what I advocate
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Jerry Neumann
Jerry Neumann@ganeumann·
@seanlinehan All of these methods are being taught to *entrepreneurs* as a science of being successful. I do not think that entrepreneurs consider failing faster success
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