Gavin Perryman

🚨SUPER SUB ALERT🚨 Jillian Shimkin scores her first of the season just 𝙩𝙬𝙤 𝙢𝙞𝙣𝙪𝙩𝙚𝙨 𝙖𝙛𝙩𝙚𝙧 𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙚𝙧𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙢𝙖𝙩𝙘𝙝 to double @TampaBaySunFC's lead!! 🤯

JUCO Casper College is set to hire Arizona State’s Ty Larson as its next head coach, a source told @On3. Just 27 years old, Larson has quickly built a strong résumé. He spent the last two seasons at ASU as Special Assistant to Bobby Hurley and previously served as Director of Recruiting at Texas under Rodney Terry and Chris Beard. He began his career at Texas Tech under Beard.

JACKSONVILLE STATE FTW 🔥 GIVE US ALL THE BUZZER BEATERS 🚨

🎥Roll it #StayCocky🐔|#FearTheBeak👌

JACOBY. HILL. 📺ESPN+ #StayCocky🐔| #FearTheBeak👌

@ZakBoisvert Plus an agreed upon PSI on the balls and broken in rims 🔥

Can't believe I forgot this one Trilliam

@pickleo7 Got it, good stuff. How many different shot types are you designating for xP? UnCon3, Con3, Con Mid2, UnCon Mid2, Con Rim2, UnCon Rim 2 at all shot locations? Please bottle the league again brother 🫡

I think you could get more accurate for sure, but I’m trying to find the best solution to balance being player agnostic and semi dictating the model outcome by adding in FG%/3PT%. I think there’s a path forward to incorporate shot selection/player skill though. More research to come!

Introducing my model for Expected Points (xP) in College Basketball: As an avid soccer fan (#COYG) and data nerd, expected goals (xG) has fascinated me in the way it can tell the underlying story in such a binary, low scoring sport. I think there’s value for this analysis in CBB. The concept is pretty simple: how many points do we expect a given shot to be worth from a specific location on the floor, accounting for the distance and angle. Think of it like this: if a random player takes a shot from 2 feet behind the 3PT line straight in line with the basket, we might expect that shot to be worth 1.1 points (which would translate to a 36.67% rate from there). xP is a way of looking at shot value at an individual level to tune out some of the noise of results and see what underlying trends we can find. Scoring more points than your xP over the course of the season would be a reliable indicator of above average shot makers, while scoring less could mean that your primary scorers may be in good positions to score but aren’t good shooters. The inverse could be the case for your defense. This is not a one stop shop metric, but is a different way of evaluating the most important part of basketball: scoring. On an individual level: Koby Brea over the course of our 2 year sample consistently outperforms his xP by .444 points a shot (2nd only to Mason Gillis at .450 points a shot). So, this matches up with our knowledge that Brea was an elite shooter in college and was much more effective than the average player would be in the same positions he got into. On a game by game level: xP can make you not feel crazy about your rival’s worst 3PT shooter randomly making 7 3s to beat you on your home floor. It also may show that a wild game result (like 2025 champs Florida shooting 4-27 from 3, which led to me tweeting I was “out on Florida”) really can just be shooting variance. I plan to delve deeper into using the data to create other xP based metrics that can be used for evaluation. I created my model with the wonderful CBB data API from @CFB_Data, and trained the LGBM on close to 1.7 million shots from the last 2 seasons of CBB shot location data. Bill does phenomenal work and is a must follow for anyone interested in learning more about the sports they watch week in and out. I plan to run game by game analysis and keep some running leaderboards that show offensive and defensive efficiency for teams and some more player based ratings as well. Here is a sample game recap on Expected Points from Alabama Purdue back in November, as well as a “Deserve to win O Meter” Monte Carlo simulation of xP, an idea borrowed from the great work of Arsenal data commentator @scottjwillis Enjoy and feel free to ask any questions!

Steady Grindin’ 💪 #StayCocky 🐔 | #FearTheBeak 👌

Special moment for senior back-up QB Gage Roy. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a single snap with him in. But converting a 2-point conversion on senior night has to be something you remember the rest of your life. Congrats kid ✌️

That winning feeling 😏 #StayCocky🐔 | #FearTheBeak👌

Talk to ‘em Emondrek ‼️ #StayCocky 🐔 | #FearTheBeak 👌

Prior to yesterday’s game, Hall of Famer Bill Jones and Vice President for Athletics Greg Seitz presented Ray Harper with a ball recognizing his 600th career win 👏 Coach Harper is one of 13 Division I head coaches with 600+ career victories #StayCocky 🐔 | #FearTheBeak 👌

1️⃣-0️⃣ #StayCocky 🐔 | #FearTheBeak 👌

Now we go

Are 𝐘𝐎𝐔 Ready⁉️ #StayCocky 🐔 | #FearTheBeak 👌

Steady 𝐆𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 💪 #StayCocky 🐔 | #FearTheBeak 👌

🎒 𝐁𝐚𝐠 𝐖𝐨𝐫𝐤 🎒 #StayCocky 🐔 | #FearTheBeak 👌

Our lad from Portugal. Forever ❤️

Jillian Shimkin with 2 Goals vs. Angel City FC, 06/06/2025