H9 Defense

@WalidPhares 100%. @Dr_SaraHarmouch just published some excellent insights on this as well. Based on her findings, it seems more likely that the Syrian government isn’t “struggling” to protect minorities…lawfaremedia.org/article/ahmad-… lawfaremedia.org/article/ahmad-…

Heavy day for Kurds today. Today we remember the victims of the Halabja chemical attack, one of the most horrific attacks against civilians in modern history. On this day, March 16th 1988, Halabja in Kurdistan was struck by chemical weapons under the regime of Saddam Hussein. Within hours, thousands of civilians, men, women, and children, lost their lives, and many more were left with lifelong physical and psychological suffering. The attack was part of the broader campaign against the Kurdish population known as the Al-Anfal campaign, during which entire villages were destroyed and 182.000 Kurdish people were killed (still counting today as we find mass graves). Halabja today stands as a powerful symbol of both tragedy and resilience. It reminds us of the devastating consequences of being Kurdish, and of the enduring struggle for dignity, justice, and freedom. Remembering Halabja is not only about honoring the past, it is also reaffirming reminder of the Kurdish people’s struggle for freedom, and their self-determination right. I am deeply saddened and heartbroken. How has the world allowed so much violence, persecution, and even genocide to happen to the Kurdish people, and yet when Kurds speak about their rights, we are met with threats, harassment, and hostility? For generations, Kurds have faced repression from different directions. From the atrocities of the past to ongoing threats today, whether from regimes in the region, from calls for jihad against Kurds by the Syrian regime, or from military pressure and attacks by Turkey. Even political voices who claim to stand for democracy and freedom, such as Reza Pahlavi, have threatened Kurds. When Kurdish parties seek unity and simply ask for the right to determine their own lives and future, the response has been statements like: “The National Army will handle you.” All Kurds have ever asked for is dignity, safety, and the right to decide our own future.

Ahmad Al-Sharaa may have traded the battlefield for the presidential palace. But the governing system emerging in #Syria looks less like a break from Abu Mohammed al-Jolani’s vision & more like its realization. My latest with @lawfare lawfaremedia.org/article/ahmad-…

Great professional articles from @Dr_SaraHarmouch who hasn't stopped working on al-Qaeda even if there was "no appetite" for it. She sees al-Qaeda as it is. Through a lens of a Sunni Muslim and who experienced the effect of terrorist groups personally Please share!!

Al-Qaeda’s links with Iran’s Shi’a Islamic regime go back decades. Their tactical alliance has made the group one of Tehran’s cards to play against the West. These connections have been widely discussed by @Dr_SaraHarmouch.

While- many of us and the world chases every new geopolitical crisis one after the other but Dr. Harmouch has stayed laser focused on Al Qaeda and its global offshoots producing excellent research. Serious, disciplined and highly important scholarship by a first-rate expert. MUST READ. 👇

While much of the policy conversation moved to the flavor du jour crises, I’ve been writing & warning about al-Qaeda for years. As it returns to the headlines, here are some of my pieces & engagements: - Al-Qaeda’s Third Phase mwi.westpoint.edu/al-qaedas-thir… - Al-Qaeda and WMD shorturl.at/8WJgp - The Unbroken Bond: Al-Qaeda and Taliban open.spotify.com/show/2t5YhLag5… - Sudan’s descent into chaos sets stage for al-Qaeda to return to a stronghold shorturl.at/cd2i9 - Inside a Dangerous Alliance: Al-Qaeda & Iran shorturl.at/Z2hO4 - Al-Qaeda: A Threat Evolved 911memorial.org/events/al-qaed… - Al-Qaeda’s Enduring Challenge shorturl.at/3dS1f - Al-Qaeda: A defeated Threat? warontherocks.com/2023/11/al-qae… - Al-Qaeda's Looming Threat shorturl.at/OEevv - Yes, al-Qaeda is Still a Threat fdd.org/podcasts/gener…

"Al-Adel identifies five prerequisites for success—'leadership, economy, organization, strategy, and control'—that together form a managerial architecture designed to institutionalize command rather than personalize it." mwi.westpoint.edu/al-qaedas-thir…

"Al-Adel identifies five prerequisites for success—'leadership, economy, organization, strategy, and control'—that together form a managerial architecture designed to institutionalize command rather than personalize it." mwi.westpoint.edu/al-qaedas-thir…

Under the leadership of Saif al-Adel, al-Qaeda is not louder than before. It is more durable—and therefore more dangerous. Its current silence is not decline but design... Al-Qaeda 3.0 is not gone; it is rebuilding and waiting. By @Dr_SaraHarmouch mwi.westpoint.edu/al-qaedas-thir…

Excellent and well-supported look at what Saif Al-Adel’s leadership means for al-Qaeda’s plans and intentions. A reminder of his military approach to organization/strategy, attention to deception and timing and interest in WMD.

Arab Spring dynamics & ISIS shaped the environment, but they do not explain al-Qaeda’s current strategic direction. My analysis focuses on al-Adel’s thinking, which he outlines in his book, in the post-2021 context: the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, declining intelligence visibility, emerging safe havens, & tech change. I examine these changes in this piece here: bpb-us-e1.wpmucdn.com/blogs.gwu.edu/…. The current article examines what al-Qaeda’s structure and operational posture are likely to look like under Al-Adel’s approach. Regarding leadership, the analysis does not depend on a formally declared emir. Multiple UN monitoring reports & intel assessments have treated al-Adel as al-Qaeda’s de facto leader following Zawahiri’s death, even though the org has avoided a public announcement. That ambiguity is itself part of the strategy. The absence of formal confirmation does not negate the observable patterns of influence shaping the network’s trajectory.

Interested in knowing what #alQaeda looks like under Saif al-Adel? My latest with @WarInstitute examines the group’s third phase. AQ 3.0 is not gone; it’s rebuilding and waiting. mwi.westpoint.edu/al-qaedas-thir…

After Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri, al-Qaeda is evolving into something markedly different under Said al-Adel. mwi.westpoint.edu/al-qaedas-thir…

After 9/11 and the invasion of Afghanistan al-Qaeda was weakened and was forced to dispersion to Pakistan and Iran. But after a short period of time, they turned these relocations to their own benefits "My enemy's enemy is my friend" Great discussion with @Dr_SaraHarmouch

In the article, I examine: - #alQaeda’s CBRN history - New signals from senior leadership - Why today’s environment is more permissive (emerging tech, safe havens, & declining visibility) - Where US & partner vigilance is eroding - Steps needed to prevent strategic surprise

While eyes are on #Venezuela & #Iran, #AlQaeda’s #WMD ambitions never disappeared. In my latest @TWQgw article, I examine why these #CBRN ambitions matter more now than many assume. Ignoring this risk would be a mistake. Access: twq.elliott.gwu.edu/files/2026/01/…

This is a must-read paper. Dr. Sara Harmouch delivers a meticulously researched and deeply unsettling analysis of Al-Qaeda’s long-standing ambitions around weapons of mass destruction. While much of the policy world is absorbed by great-power politics this research is a timely reminder that AQ has not abandoned its most dangerous objective i.e. they have simply operated under the radar. It is a call for urgent policy attention and sustained research. Congratulations on a powerful, rigorous and compelling contribution. Highly recommended. 👇

Al-Qaeda has had the will and effort to develop WMD capability and the IC badly underestimated its stage before 9/11. Again al-Qaeda has a safe haven where it operates without interference. Saif al-Adel openly claimed that having WMD and using it against the infidels is justified

"Al-Qaeda is gone!" Seriously?