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HelloTrade
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HelloTrade
@hellotradeapp
Every Market, Everywhere. Access stocks, commodities, ETFs, and crypto globally with up to 40x leverage 24/7
Katılım Ağustos 2025
52 Takip Edilen12.1K Takipçiler
June CPI fell to 3.5%, its first drop in five months. Core was flat on the month, 2.6% year over year, the softest read on the gauge the Fed actually watches. The energy-driven spike is unwinding. But the Fed isn't turning just yet.
Warsh's reaction: "There might be some that look at this morning's data and say, 'Oh, mission accomplished, everything is swell.' That is not my view."
HelloTrade@hellotradeapp
The Fed's June minutes landed hawkish this week: easing bias gone, cuts no longer the default path. But they were written June 17, before the 57k jobs miss, before the ceasefire pulled oil under $70 (only for US-Iran strikes to bounce it back near $74 this week), and before the sharpest cooling in factory-gate prices since 2022. The manufacturing reads point to easing pressure at the source. And a separate gauge agrees: @truflation, built on a different daily-updated basket, puts US inflation at 1.93%, below the Fed's 2% target, while the official print that drove the hawkish turn was 4.2%. Rate hikes don't reopen a strait. CPI tomorrow runs hot on the Hormuz war premium. But, the independent read is already pointing the other way.
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The Fed's June minutes landed hawkish this week: easing bias gone, cuts no longer the default path. But they were written June 17, before the 57k jobs miss, before the ceasefire pulled oil under $70 (only for US-Iran strikes to bounce it back near $74 this week), and before the sharpest cooling in factory-gate prices since 2022.
The manufacturing reads point to easing pressure at the source. And a separate gauge agrees: @truflation, built on a different daily-updated basket, puts US inflation at 1.93%, below the Fed's 2% target, while the official print that drove the hawkish turn was 4.2%.
Rate hikes don't reopen a strait. CPI tomorrow runs hot on the Hormuz war premium. But, the independent read is already pointing the other way.
HelloTrade@hellotradeapp
Our July watchlist. First, something to consider: is the growth lag from the spring energy shock starting to surface in the data? ISM Services tomorrow covers the 70% of the economy that manufacturing misses. Empire State mid-month leads the national ISM by two weeks, and new orders are the signal to watch. Second, an observation: a meaningful cluster of data hits July 14-17. We expect it to move markets, and we expect volatility into and around that window.
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GIF
kevin@kevtanggg
This is the #Bitcoin thesis. If the stock market is too important to fail, the backstop eventually becomes the money supply. The Japan example matters. The BOJ bought equity ETFs for years, became one of the dominant buyers in its own stock market, and then struggled to get out without disrupting prices. That may stabilize things in the short run, but it also weakens price discovery and makes the eventual exit harder. So if equity markets are going to be increasingly protected by monetary policy, the case for owning scarce assets outside that system gets stronger. Bitcoin, gold, commodities, etc.
ZXX
$BMNR update.
This is now definitely in the buy zone imo, I just can't count 5 up just yet off the lows so can't confirm anything.
Will keep everyone updated.
Check out my last post on $SLNH.
Same structure but SLNH has already put in a sub wave 1 now in sub 2 imo.
Thats what we wanna see off these lows ideally.
Freedom By 40@Freedom_By_40
$BMNR is another stock I am getting ready to buy more of as people run for the hills. I will start to DCA at the 1 to 1 ratio. Now I do have some cash already but selling some land, pokemon cards, maybe a moped. etc. If you believe in $ETH you need to dig deep/be resourceful.
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Our July watchlist.
First, something to consider: is the growth lag from the spring energy shock starting to surface in the data?
ISM Services tomorrow covers the 70% of the economy that manufacturing misses. Empire State mid-month leads the national ISM by two weeks, and new orders are the signal to watch.
Second, an observation: a meaningful cluster of data hits July 14-17. We expect it to move markets, and we expect volatility into and around that window.
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July is here! Manufacturing held at 53.3, so Empire State's drop looks regional for now. But June jobs cracked to 57k, half what was expected. Prices are cooling too. Monday's services read tells us if this is a blip or a turn.
HelloTrade@hellotradeapp
Data that matters before July 4th: ISM Manufacturing tests whether Empire State’s drop from 19.6 to 5.7 was regional noise or the first national crack, while June jobs tests whether the labor market is finally slowing. Four months into the energy shock, the question is no longer just inflation; it’s whether growth is starting to feel the lag, so watch the internals, not just the headline.
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Data that matters before July 4th: ISM Manufacturing tests whether Empire State’s drop from 19.6 to 5.7 was regional noise or the first national crack, while June jobs tests whether the labor market is finally slowing.
Four months into the energy shock, the question is no longer just inflation; it’s whether growth is starting to feel the lag, so watch the internals, not just the headline.
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HelloTrade@hellotradeapp
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Revisiting our six catalysts in ten trading days. No growth scare yet, but an #energy shock is driving inflation higher.
The Strait of #Hormuz fed straight into the pump: CPI ran to 4.2%, PPI to 6.5%, while core stayed calm at 2.9%. Normally the Fed shrugs off supply shocks. This time it didn't. Rates were held at Chair Warsh's first meeting, but the dot plot flipped from a 2026 cut to a hike.
The Fed seems to be forgetting James Hamilton: #oil spikes have preceded all but one postwar U.S. recession, and the hit to demand lands nine to twelve months later. Hormuz has choked supply since late February, so the clock is already ticking.
$SPCX IPO and still-growing factories aren't the all-clear. It's just early. The war is winding down, which limits the shock, but four months of it are already in the pipeline.
So, did the Fed take the bait?
HelloTrade@hellotradeapp
A couple of news heavy weeks ahead. Here's a few things we've got our eyes on.
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@GoldnGuitars Thanks for sharing. 1990/1973-74 might be good equivalents in some respects. Inflation and populism. Middle East Wars with oil shock.
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The data looks clean because recessions get dated from the rearview mirror. The July 1990 top wasn't called until nine months later and the monthly prints had been rising the whole way. Solid data, no alarm, right up until the past got rewritten. A clean growth read today means less than it feels like. That Empire State cooldown, 19.6 to 5.7, might be nothing. Or it's a crack we'll look back to later.
So yeah, the Fed probably took the bait. But cycles author the market. A dot plot that flips from a cut to a hike is tightening into the exact number that gets revised... That's how a 4-year cycle lows tends to build. Not the shock alone, but the policy mistake that meets it. But we'll see. Every top and bottom gets its narrative eventually. Reading ahead of the story is the fun part. $SPX
HelloTrade@hellotradeapp
Revisiting our six catalysts in ten trading days. No growth scare yet, but an #energy shock is driving inflation higher. The Strait of #Hormuz fed straight into the pump: CPI ran to 4.2%, PPI to 6.5%, while core stayed calm at 2.9%. Normally the Fed shrugs off supply shocks. This time it didn't. Rates were held at Chair Warsh's first meeting, but the dot plot flipped from a 2026 cut to a hike. The Fed seems to be forgetting James Hamilton: #oil spikes have preceded all but one postwar U.S. recession, and the hit to demand lands nine to twelve months later. Hormuz has choked supply since late February, so the clock is already ticking. $SPCX IPO and still-growing factories aren't the all-clear. It's just early. The war is winding down, which limits the shock, but four months of it are already in the pipeline. So, did the Fed take the bait?
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@hellotradeapp the dot plot flip is the whole story tbh
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wyatt@wyattraich
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