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Why Taiwan Will Unite with China Peacefully
I am writing this article because many pundits are saying that China will invade Taiwan as President Trump’s withdrawal of support for Ukraine and wanting a swift negotiated settlement to the Ukraine War where Ukraine might have to cede territory to Russia, is a green light to China to invade Taiwan next.
My view is that China is not in a hurry to unite with Taiwan as it is interested in a peaceful unification. Unless Taiwan declares independence – there is no reason for China to use military means to unite with Taiwan. Moreover, under UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 it is recognized by all member states that there is only one China and Taiwan is a province of China.
Taiwan is not Ukraine. Why?
Taiwan's geopolitical situation is fundamentally different from that of Ukraine. Unlike Ukraine, Taiwan is a small island located just 200 kilometers from the Chinese mainland, making it highly vulnerable to blockades and military operations. In the event of a conflict initiated by Taiwan declaring independence, China would likely launch a swift and overwhelming military response. This would involve the destruction of Taiwan's military command and communication centers, radar systems, missile defense systems, military airports, and sea ports within the opening hours of the conflict. Additionally, China would deploy an army of drones and robots to minimize civilian casualties, potentially ending the conflict within a week. Taiwanese are Chinese – so it is a responsibility of the PLA to minimize bloodshed even if the Taiwan separatist under Lai Chin-te declares independence.
The United States faces a strategic dilemma regarding Taiwan. If it encourages Taiwan to declare independence, it risks revealing its own military limitations. The U.S. Navy cannot even win a war against the Houthis in the Red Sea – don’t talk about winning a naval war with a superpower like China in its backyard. The US Navy’s failure to defend Taiwan would expose the U.S. as a paper tiger, undermining its credibility as a global superpower.
Furthermore, Japan is unlikely to intervene militarily in a conflict over Taiwan. Historical atrocities committed by the Japanese Army in China during World War II make Japan reluctant to provoke China further, especially when it comes to Taiwan. Moreover, if Japan intervene in the war of independence by Taiwan and it lost – then China will dictate that Japan as the loser has to implement the Potsdam Agreement of 1945 among the Allied Power where Japanese territory does not include Okinawa (Ryukyu Islands) – and Ryukyu Islands will be allowed to become an independent country with China acting as the security guarantor.
The U.S. military is no longer capable of defeating China in a direct confrontation in the Pacific as it is low on stockpile of weapons and ammos and its defence industry is crippled by Chinese ban on export of rare earths and critical materials. In a naval war in the West Pacific, the U.S. would struggle to sustain operations for more than two weeks before running out of ships, planes, submarines, missiles, and ammunition. The loss of even one U.S. aircraft carrier would result in significant casualties and further weaken the U.S. position. A ceasefire or peaceful resolution would be unlikely once hostilities have escalated to this level and the US have lost at least an aircraft carrier i.e. lives of 5,000 servicemen had been lost
The economic consequences of a U.S.-China war over Taiwan would be catastrophic for the U.S. An all-out war would disrupt global supply chains, leading to shortages of essential goods in American stores like Walmart and Target within days due to panic buying. As around 20% of the world’s containerships are owned by China and at least 60% of the world's commercial ships are build by China – in a war between US and China – the US will have problems getting goods delivered to its ports as no Chinese containership or Chinese-made containership will call on US ports for fear of being confiscated. Moreover, the U.S. defense industry is already struggling with supply chain issues and a lack of boost production capacity, as demonstrated during the Ukraine War.
The geopolitical landscape has shifted in favor of China and Russia, who are now strong allies. The U.S., protected by two oceans, can still maintain its hegemony in the Americas but must focus on rebuilding its manufacturing and military capabilities through reform and infrastructure investment.
For President Trump, achieving "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) is primarily an internal challenge like bloated bureaucracy, polarized political landscape, poor infrastructure, a predominantly service industry with little manufacturing, and high unsustainable debt level. The U.S. faces significant internal issues that need addressing before it can effectively compete on the global stage again.
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