GeoInsider (@InsiderGeo) - Twitter Profili | Zamantika Mersobahis Locabet

GeoInsider@InsiderGeo·23m

Some images are also circulating from allegedly from Bandar Abbas itself, though for now the situation remains unclear and awaiting further confirmation. At this stage, it does not appear that anything extremely large-scale has occurred, but monitoring is ongoing.

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GeoInsider@InsiderGeo·26m

UPDATE: The latest events near Bandar Abbas now appear linked to reported clashes at sea in the Gulf area.

Ali Hashem علي هاشم@Alihashem

An Iranian source told me the heavy gunfire heard near Bandar Abbas erupted after the IRGC targeted a vessel at sea, followed by U.S. fighter jets striking IRGC naval boats in the Gulf. According to the source, several IRGC Navy personnel were killed in the attack. “The situation is still unfolding,” the source said.

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GeoInsider@InsiderGeo·1h

@ad_astra999 To clarify, my filter is set to military/gov flights, drones and helicopters, not commercial traffic. The point was the thin US military presence over the Gulf right now, when it's usually fairly sustained. Plenty of airliners up,, sure, but that's not what I was tracking.

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Skeptik@ad_astra999·1h

@InsiderGeo Just took a screenshot ?

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GeoInsider@InsiderGeo·1h

WATCH | Flightradar looks quiet over the Gulf right now. Maybe too quiet, but that's just my read. Only thing worth flagging: a US KC-46A Pegasus tanker off the coast of Oman. We can't expect Flightradar to settle the reported explosions over Bandar Abbas one way or the other.

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GeoInsider@InsiderGeo·1h

UPDATE | Multiple reports of explosions around Bandar Abbas tonight. The indications point to Iranian air-defense activity rather than a strike on Iranian territory. Likely reconnaissance drones in the area, with Iranian AD attempting to engage them. This fits the recent pattern: in this cycle, "explosions" over Bandar Abbas have repeatedly turned out to be air defense firing at UAVs, and Iran claimed an Israeli recon drone downed over Hormozgan just yesterday.

GeoInsider@InsiderGeo

BREAKING | Watching unconfirmed reports of explosion sounds around Bandar Abbas, with similar accounts near Sirik and Jask. Single Telegram channel so far, no primary source, and the wording closely tracks the early-May incidents in the same area. Not calling it until Tasnim, IRNA or credible OSINT back it. Will update.

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GeoInsider@InsiderGeo·1h

BREAKING | Watching unconfirmed reports of explosion sounds around Bandar Abbas, with similar accounts near Sirik and Jask. Single Telegram channel so far, no primary source, and the wording closely tracks the early-May incidents in the same area. Not calling it until Tasnim, IRNA or credible OSINT back it. Will update.

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GeoInsider@InsiderGeo·3h

NEW | Worth being precise about Lebanon, because the headline going around has it backwards. Channel 12 reports that the IDF is pressing the government to authorize a wider operation against Hezbollah, and that it has thinned out its troops in the south to limit their exposure to the drone attacks. A senior Israeli official told the same channel that Israel is effectively "defenseless" against the current drone barrage, and that it is being held back from a broad offensive by US pressure tied to the Iran negotiations. As long as those talks are alive, the US has a reason to keep Israel restrained in Lebanon. If they collapse, that reason goes with them, and the operation the IDF is already asking for becomes a lot easier to approve.

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GeoInsider@InsiderGeo·4h

UPDATE | A senior Iranian source tells Reuters there's no agreement to ship the highly enriched stockpile out of the country, and that the nuclear file isn't part of the preliminary understanding at all, it's pushed to the final-agreement talks.

GeoInsider@InsiderGeo

BREAKING | Iran’s position on shipping out its highly-enriched uranium has evolved, while Iran is willing to send its high-enriched uranium (HEU) outside the country, Iran will only do so to China and is looking for an assurance of support from Beijing in exchange for agreeing to any final agreement with Washington. This was reported by Al Hadath citing anonymous sources. Iranian officials have been saying since the last few days, as opposed to now, that they were told by the Supreme Leader to keep the near-weapon grade HEU within Iran. While both statements cannot completely be true at the same time; this difference provides the basis for the story. The “what happens to the uranium” issue remains unsettled inside the Iranian system, not merely between the U.S. and Iran. While China’s willingness to take possession of the HEU (or down-blend it into lower enrichment material), approximately 440 kilograms at 60% has been communicated for weeks, the shift is reportedly Iran has made accepting Chinese custody of the stockpile the only condition acceptable to Iran versus one of multiple options.

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GeoInsider@InsiderGeo·5h

BREAKING | Iran’s position on shipping out its highly-enriched uranium has evolved, while Iran is willing to send its high-enriched uranium (HEU) outside the country, Iran will only do so to China and is looking for an assurance of support from Beijing in exchange for agreeing to any final agreement with Washington. This was reported by Al Hadath citing anonymous sources. Iranian officials have been saying since the last few days, as opposed to now, that they were told by the Supreme Leader to keep the near-weapon grade HEU within Iran. While both statements cannot completely be true at the same time; this difference provides the basis for the story. The “what happens to the uranium” issue remains unsettled inside the Iranian system, not merely between the U.S. and Iran. While China’s willingness to take possession of the HEU (or down-blend it into lower enrichment material), approximately 440 kilograms at 60% has been communicated for weeks, the shift is reportedly Iran has made accepting Chinese custody of the stockpile the only condition acceptable to Iran versus one of multiple options.

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GeoInsider@InsiderGeo·7h

WATCH | Multiple Italian aircraft were observed operating in the Tyrrhenian Sea and between Malta and Pantelleria, including: G550 CAEW – Airborne Early Warning & Control C-27J Spartan – Tactical transport / Electronic warfare King Air 350ER – Surveillance / Light ISR C-130J Hercules – Tactical airlift Boeing 767 – Aerial refueling tanker ATR 72-600 MPA (Guardia di Finanza) – Maritime patrol / Surveillance ATR P-72A MPA (Italian Navy) – Maritime patrol Activity appears focused on maritime surveillance and patrol. No large-scale exercise currently announced.

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GeoInsider@InsiderGeo·7h

UPDATE | Current US vs Iran positions in the ongoing negotiations. The table below summarizes the main points of divergence based on the latest statements and reporting:

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GeoInsider@InsiderGeo·23h

WATCH | A Russian Air Force Ilyushin Il-76 tracked over the eastern Mediterranean in the past hours. Departed from the Syrian coast, Latakia area, on a southwest heading, now over northern Egypt and continuing west. The Il-76 is Russia's heavy strategic transport, the equivalent of the American C-17. The route fits the logistics corridor Russia keeps through its bases in Syria, Hmeimim and Tartus, toward North Africa. Worth flagging as a reminder of something that gets little attention: despite everything, the Russian air bridge running through Syria toward Africa is still active.

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GeoInsider@InsiderGeo·1d

UPDATE | The deal that looked one step from signing 18 hours ago is now slowing down, and the issue is the same as ever: the nuclear program. Secretary of State Rubio is cooling expectations, he says the agreement has regional support, but that a nuclear deal can't be reached "in 72 hours on the back of a napkin." In short, the US is signaling that the nuclear question needs time, while the rest of the deal moves ahead. It's not a collapse, but it's not the imminent signing announced yesterday either. The real question now is whether this nuclear deadlock holds inside a partial deal, or risks blowing the whole thing up and bringing the fighting back. One to watch closely in the coming hours.

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GeoInsider@InsiderGeo·1d

UPDATE | There's still a lot of confusion around the US-Iran deal, with US and Iranian officials contradicting each other's statements. The sticking point remains the same as ever: Iran's nuclear program. One to watch in the coming hours.

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GeoInsider@InsiderGeo·1d

NEW | There are indications today (still unconfirmed) that the U.S.-Iran deal may have been farther apart than they appeared to be yesterday. The continuing impasse remains the same as it has always been: the nuclear issue. Here is where things stand. The U.S. may be willing to consider delaying the nuclear issue so long as it can reopen Hormuz and continue negotiations. Some reports indicate however, the U.S. still wishes to see an Iranian commitment to negotiate the end of its nuclear program included in the agreement at this time. Put another way; the U.S. is willing to negotiate how and when the nuclear program will end, but the U.S. would like to see a commitment from Iran to end the nuclear program in writing as part of the initial agreement. Iran is unwilling to agree to that. Iran would prefer to delay negotiations until after all issues regarding the nuclear program have been put off as well. This appears to be the same basic disagreement with different language; for Washington the principle of the matter needs to be established immediately, and the specifics can follow. For Tehran; neither the principle nor the specifics need be agreed upon.

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GeoInsider@InsiderGeo·1d

THE READ. An attack of this scale, involving a large mass of weapons, the use of a signaling tool like the Oreshnik, and targets that are mostly civilian and symbolic, fits the profile of a punishment and signaling operation more than one aimed at military degradation. This leads to two opposing interpretations: Either Russia has turned to coercion because it is struggling to make progress on the ground, or it is successfully imposing the costs of attrition while maintaining the initiative through selective escalation. It is likely a combination of both. How do you read it?

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GeoInsider@InsiderGeo·1d

THE MESSAGE TO NATO. The Oreshnik is a nuclear-capable intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM). It was launched from Kapustin Yar, and Putin has publicly stated that it is extremely difficult to intercept. Its deployment seems intended more as a signal to NATO, showcasing a capability that Western air defenses would find hard to counter, than as a weapon meant primarily to cause direct military damage to Ukraine. This is the third combat use of the missile since the start of the war (after November 2024 and January 2026), and each time it has been a deliberate and calculated act.

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GeoInsider@InsiderGeo·1d

ANALYSIS | THE KYIV ATTACK, READ PROPERLY. Overnight, a massive attack on Kyiv was carried out by Russia, using approximately 600 drones, and 90 missiles (including Iskander, Kinzhal, Zircon and Oreshnik). The damage from this attack has affected each district of the capital; over 40 locations were impacted, resulting in at least four deaths in total (four across both city and region) and eighty-three injuries. Let's actually read it. 🧵⬇️

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