GeoInsider

NEW | Worth being precise about Lebanon, because the headline going around has it backwards. Channel 12 reports that the IDF is pressing the government to authorize a wider operation against Hezbollah, and that it has thinned out its troops in the south to limit their exposure to the drone attacks. A senior Israeli official told the same channel that Israel is effectively "defenseless" against the current drone barrage, and that it is being held back from a broad offensive by US pressure tied to the Iran negotiations. As long as those talks are alive, the US has a reason to keep Israel restrained in Lebanon. If they collapse, that reason goes with them, and the operation the IDF is already asking for becomes a lot easier to approve.

UPDATE | A senior Iranian source tells Reuters there's no agreement to ship the highly enriched stockpile out of the country, and that the nuclear file isn't part of the preliminary understanding at all, it's pushed to the final-agreement talks.

BREAKING | Iran’s position on shipping out its highly-enriched uranium has evolved, while Iran is willing to send its high-enriched uranium (HEU) outside the country, Iran will only do so to China and is looking for an assurance of support from Beijing in exchange for agreeing to any final agreement with Washington. This was reported by Al Hadath citing anonymous sources. Iranian officials have been saying since the last few days, as opposed to now, that they were told by the Supreme Leader to keep the near-weapon grade HEU within Iran. While both statements cannot completely be true at the same time; this difference provides the basis for the story. The “what happens to the uranium” issue remains unsettled inside the Iranian system, not merely between the U.S. and Iran. While China’s willingness to take possession of the HEU (or down-blend it into lower enrichment material), approximately 440 kilograms at 60% has been communicated for weeks, the shift is reportedly Iran has made accepting Chinese custody of the stockpile the only condition acceptable to Iran versus one of multiple options.

WATCH | Multiple Italian aircraft were observed operating in the Tyrrhenian Sea and between Malta and Pantelleria, including: G550 CAEW – Airborne Early Warning & Control C-27J Spartan – Tactical transport / Electronic warfare King Air 350ER – Surveillance / Light ISR C-130J Hercules – Tactical airlift Boeing 767 – Aerial refueling tanker ATR 72-600 MPA (Guardia di Finanza) – Maritime patrol / Surveillance ATR P-72A MPA (Italian Navy) – Maritime patrol Activity appears focused on maritime surveillance and patrol. No large-scale exercise currently announced.

UPDATE | Current US vs Iran positions in the ongoing negotiations. The table below summarizes the main points of divergence based on the latest statements and reporting:

WATCH | A Russian Air Force Ilyushin Il-76 tracked over the eastern Mediterranean in the past hours. Departed from the Syrian coast, Latakia area, on a southwest heading, now over northern Egypt and continuing west. The Il-76 is Russia's heavy strategic transport, the equivalent of the American C-17. The route fits the logistics corridor Russia keeps through its bases in Syria, Hmeimim and Tartus, toward North Africa. Worth flagging as a reminder of something that gets little attention: despite everything, the Russian air bridge running through Syria toward Africa is still active.

UPDATE | The deal that looked one step from signing 18 hours ago is now slowing down, and the issue is the same as ever: the nuclear program. Secretary of State Rubio is cooling expectations, he says the agreement has regional support, but that a nuclear deal can't be reached "in 72 hours on the back of a napkin." In short, the US is signaling that the nuclear question needs time, while the rest of the deal moves ahead. It's not a collapse, but it's not the imminent signing announced yesterday either. The real question now is whether this nuclear deadlock holds inside a partial deal, or risks blowing the whole thing up and bringing the fighting back. One to watch closely in the coming hours.

UPDATE | There's still a lot of confusion around the US-Iran deal, with US and Iranian officials contradicting each other's statements. The sticking point remains the same as ever: Iran's nuclear program. One to watch in the coming hours.

NEW | There are indications today (still unconfirmed) that the U.S.-Iran deal may have been farther apart than they appeared to be yesterday. The continuing impasse remains the same as it has always been: the nuclear issue. Here is where things stand. The U.S. may be willing to consider delaying the nuclear issue so long as it can reopen Hormuz and continue negotiations. Some reports indicate however, the U.S. still wishes to see an Iranian commitment to negotiate the end of its nuclear program included in the agreement at this time. Put another way; the U.S. is willing to negotiate how and when the nuclear program will end, but the U.S. would like to see a commitment from Iran to end the nuclear program in writing as part of the initial agreement. Iran is unwilling to agree to that. Iran would prefer to delay negotiations until after all issues regarding the nuclear program have been put off as well. This appears to be the same basic disagreement with different language; for Washington the principle of the matter needs to be established immediately, and the specifics can follow. For Tehran; neither the principle nor the specifics need be agreed upon.

THE READ. An attack of this scale, involving a large mass of weapons, the use of a signaling tool like the Oreshnik, and targets that are mostly civilian and symbolic, fits the profile of a punishment and signaling operation more than one aimed at military degradation. This leads to two opposing interpretations: Either Russia has turned to coercion because it is struggling to make progress on the ground, or it is successfully imposing the costs of attrition while maintaining the initiative through selective escalation. It is likely a combination of both. How do you read it?

THE MESSAGE TO NATO. The Oreshnik is a nuclear-capable intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM). It was launched from Kapustin Yar, and Putin has publicly stated that it is extremely difficult to intercept. Its deployment seems intended more as a signal to NATO, showcasing a capability that Western air defenses would find hard to counter, than as a weapon meant primarily to cause direct military damage to Ukraine. This is the third combat use of the missile since the start of the war (after November 2024 and January 2026), and each time it has been a deliberate and calculated act.

ANALYSIS | THE KYIV ATTACK, READ PROPERLY. Overnight, a massive attack on Kyiv was carried out by Russia, using approximately 600 drones, and 90 missiles (including Iskander, Kinzhal, Zircon and Oreshnik). The damage from this attack has affected each district of the capital; over 40 locations were impacted, resulting in at least four deaths in total (four across both city and region) and eighty-three injuries. Let's actually read it. 🧵⬇️

WATCH | A Dutch A330 MRTT, in a refueling pattern over southeastern Poland near the Ukrainian border. It's not a recon aircraft, it's a tanker, likely there to refuel the NATO ISR assets watching the airspace during the heavy Russian attack on Kyiv.