Julien Barnes-Dacey

Our big @ecfr 360° reaction piece to the Iran conflict, assessing regional & global positioning, risks and implications as the war plays out in devastating fashion across the Middle East - and beyond ecfr.eu/article/a-war-…

If Trump follows through on his threat to bomb Iran’s energy infrastructure, the Strait of Hormuz is likely to shut down entirely and the catastrophic energy crisis will deepen. Europeans need to push for an urgent and sustainable ceasefire, write Ellie Geranmayeh and @JyShapiro. Read the latest policy alert: bit.ly/4brdqQF

With over a thousand dead and a million displaced, Lebanon is edging toward state collapse. Europe must go beyond humanitarian aid and throw its full weight behind France’s diplomatic push, writes @petillo_kelly. Read our latest commentary: bit.ly/3Pi7nW5

Many believed the old rules held: that Iraqi Iran-aligned actors would stay out of the war. But from my January conversations with PMF leaders, it was clear a wider conflict would draw some in. That threshold has now been crossed & the most dangerous scenario is unfolding in Iraq

“Batoul & her loved ones were among 773 Lebanese people – including more than 100 children – killed by Israel’s campaign in Lebanon since 2 March. They join a growing list of families completely wiped out by Israeli bombings” theguardian.com/world/2026/mar…

“price of continued conflict…against regime prepared to set world on fire is too high. Better to end it immediately…then seek to address thorny challenges through renewed diplomacy than risk ever more unmanageable,expanding & perilous war” - @CrisisGroup crisisgroup.org/stm/middle-eas…

“The Iranian regime is unlikely to back down because it retains several advantages: geography, time & asymmetry. The longer the war goes on, the greater the cost to everyone else — and the Iranian regime has superior pain tolerance.” @emile_hokayem for @FT giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/ac…

@Cinzia_Bianco Thanks Cinzia

Very very important piece by my colleague @jbdacey and others. This should be mandatory resina for European officials wondering how to deal with Trump’s “diplomacy”

“Those in command of Iran today are veterans of asymmetric wars in Iraq & Syria. They are now applying the same strategy to fighting the US on the battlefield of the global economy” - @vali_nasr on Tehran’s long game strategy giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/ac…

“This private-actor diplomacy has revealed its more dangerous & illuminating consequences in Iran. Reports suggest White House envoys Witkoff & Kushner—meeting Iranian negotiators in Geneva—didn’t grasp the mechanics of the Iran nuclear issue” ecfr.eu/article/friend… @ecfr

Positive flip side could be that this forces govs like Syria to embrace more inclusive & productive econ models not tied to Gulf largesse - locking in an alternative approach which could be better for real stability

Syria is a key example where post-conflict economic recovery - desperately needed to anchor new stability - is hugely tied to prospects of GCC financial inflows

Important & worrying ramifications for prospects of reconstruction & stabilisation in Gaza, Syria, Lebanon etc. Many of these govs & likes of Europe have been counting on Gulf funding to lock in any post-conflict gains

“the EU does not purchase significant amounts of oil & gas from Middle Eastern countries, its real vulnerability lies in indirect shocks: Asian competition to replace the missing Gulf supplies & resurgent Russian leverage” - @szymonkardas @ecfr ecfr.eu/article/gimme-…

Euro positioning on Iran war testifies “to a loss of faith in a principle of international order…at precisely the moment when the likely harms to European interests of an unnecessary war are most obvious” writes @AnthonyDworkin ecfr.eu/article/war-ov…

Israel has issued a forced displacement order for residents south of the Zahrani River, driving even more people out of an expanding area of southern #Lebanon. More than 800,000 Lebanese have already been forced to flee their homes and villages.

Hizbullah missile wave tonight makes clear how many of the early takes on Hizb’s March 1 attack were silly and premature: tcf.org/content/commen… Hizb has been preparing; presumably spent past year-plus rearming, reorganizing and undertaking major counterintelligence effort.

More than ten days into the recent escalation of conflict in the Middle East, health systems are under immense strain. Reports indicate over 1,300 deaths and 9,000 injuries in Iran, at least 570 deaths and over 1,400 injuries in Lebanon, and 15 deaths with 2,142 injuries in Israel. Attacks on health care are increasing, with WHO verifying 18 attacks in Iran, 25 in Lebanon, and 2 in Israel since February 28, resulting in tragic losses among health workers. These attacks not only claim lives but also deprive communities of critical care when they need it most. Public health risks are soaring, with over 100,000 people in Iran and up to 700,000 in Lebanon displaced under deteriorating conditions, facing limited access to clean water and sanitation. Vulnerable populations, especially women and children, are at heightened risk of illness. The situation is compounded by numerous health facility closures. In Lebanon, 49 primary health care centers and five hospitals have shut down due to evacuation orders, while access to medical services is severely restricted in the occupied Palestinian territories and Gaza. Disruptions in medical supply chains due to airspace restrictions are leading to significant backlogs in essential health supplies for over 1.5 million people across 25 countries. WHO calls on all parties to protect civilians and health care, ensure unimpeded humanitarian access, and work toward de-escalation. The urgency for action is critical to prevent the collapse of already fragile health systems and to support the recovery of impacted communities. Peace is the best medicine!

“We weren’t supposed to be bombed” Mandana said, her voice trembling after a massive explosion. “Our city,our country, this wasn’t supposed to happen.” The scale of destruction…has prompted many Iranians to rethink hopes” ft.com/content/4e048e…

Trump’s family and friends are trying—but failing—to broker peace in Gaza, Ukraine and beyond. The network they are building blends diplomacy with profit. Europe needs to find a way to shape the terms, write @jbdacey, @j_kobzova and Jim O’Brien. Read the full commentary: bit.ly/40rJAFu

#Beirut southern suburbs on fire right now- #Israel has carried out 6 aerial bombardments of the area in less than 20 minutes. The smell drifting across the city is terrible. #Lebanon