Jac Larner

New piece by me looking at multilevel voting in Wales🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 - Voter switching between Westminster and the Senedd🔁 - How popular are the parties? - Seat projections for expanded Senedd All using new @WalesGovernance Welsh Election Study data blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wales…

@AbolishWestmin @JoshHousden @WalesGovernance This is YouGov’s own seat projection not mine. But to be honest a change of just a couple points for any of these parties has big effects - I’d focus on the order of parties rather than actual numbers

@JoshHousden I think the number of seats is based on @Jaclarner and @WalesGovernance’s modelling. I’ve seen Plaid projected to win far fewer seats in other models using the same percentages. Time will tell.

Not to discount the campaign, but I think winning 43 seats on 33% of the vote also implies a lot of pure luck on Plaid's behalf tbh They'd have to be consistently on the right side of some very thin margins in the seat calculation >40 seats for anyone is still a bold call

Finally it gives us information about coalition possibilities and proportionality of the results. I've written up an explainer here that outlines how it works, what it does and doesn't do, and also plans for improvement blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wales…

It also visualises for seats are actually allocated in different constituencies and tells us how tight the margins are.

Over last year I've been building a Senedd Election Simulator tool. It gives a useful (I hope!) visual explainer of how the new election system turns votes into seats. 🧵 on some of what it can do below: jaclarner.github.io/senedd_etholia…

BRECWAST BRIFFIO: Ymunwch â'r tîm Astudiaeth Etholiad Cymru bore Iau i drafod data a dadansodiaddau newydd o'r etholiad y DU 2024: BREAKFAST BRIEFING: Join @Jaclarner & @RWynJones on Thursday to discuss new data and analysis from the Wales Election Study: eventbrite.co.uk/e/event-the-20…

⚡️NEW WALESCAST OUT NOW⚡️ School's Out for Summer... @felicityxevans + @jamswilliams85 take stock of a momentous period in Cardiff Bay and Westminster with @GarethLewis77 @shelleylphelps + @Jaclarner Enjoy 👇 bbc.in/3SA8j6W

@twlldun it is new - and not an extrapolation. New data from the Welsh Election Study

Not, actually, new polling but an extrapolation of the general election voting

Finally, I provide seat projections for expanded Senedd using these numbers - We don't know final constituency pairings, so I run the model on 1000 possible twining arrangements - Range of results are plotted below, along with the mean number of seats for each party

Why? Because Labour voters really like Plaid Cymru! Below is a 0-10 'party like' plot by 2024 vote - Some of these Labour voters are Plaid supporters voting tactically - We also see multilevel partisanship/party ID: 16% of Labour partisans say they support to Plaid at Welsh level

New piece by me looking at multilevel voting in Wales🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 - Voter switching between Westminster and the Senedd🔁 - How popular are the parties? - Seat projections for expanded Senedd All using new @WalesGovernance Welsh Election Study data blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wales…

✍️ "Perhaps the most intriguing development in Wales was the surge of Reform UK." 🚨NEW: As Welsh Labour gets a new leader, @Jaclarner unpacks the general election result in Wales, exploring the potential cracks in Welsh Labour's foundations. ukandeu.ac.uk/welsh-labour-a…

New piece from me about Eluned Morgan's election. While unity and continuity may sound good for Welsh Labour, something different is needed for Wales theconversation.com/eluned-morgan-…

@JorisBinsAgain Appreciate the enthusiasm Cap

Last chance to apply for 12 month position working with us on the Welsh Election Study. Ideal for someone close to submitting/ has already submitted PhD

@JorisBinsAgain Spilt tea all over myself moments before - was sweaty mess

@PoliticalUklist Vote share down there too mostly - but won't matter too much as Tories have completely folded

@Jaclarner What about the north?

Clear trend emerging in Wales: - Labour vote down across South Wales, but not facing much competition at all - Plaid up everywhere - Reform likely will finish second in vote share - Tory drop off in line with most pessimistic polls

CANLYNIAD: Ynys Môn Dilynwch ar ein llif byw 👇 bbc.in/3xzKIfr