Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs

חוקר המרכז הירושלמי לענייני חוץ וביטחון, יוני בן מנחם: המו"מ בין איראן לארה"ב תקוע. נראה שטראמפ הולך להסלמה ולהגברת הלחץ הצבאי, מהלך שעשוי ליצור טלטלה במשטר ובמדינה"

לקראת קריסת המשא ומתן? חוקר המרכז הירושלמי לענייני חוץ וביטחון, יוני בן מנחם @BwMnhm בראיון לערוץ 14: "ההערכה בישראל היא שהמו"מ נמצא במבוי סתום. המשטר האיראני לא מגלה שום סימנים של התגמשות מול הנשיא טראמפ. מבחינתם מדובר במסמך כניעה מביש". לדבריו, הם מתכוונים לשרוף את כל המזרח התיכון אם טראמפ יממש את התוכנית לתקוף את תחנות החשמל והאנרגיה באיראן.

פארסה בביירות: שגריר איראן גורש, ומתבצר בלשכתו. אל"מ (במיל') ד"ר ז'ק נריה, בכיר באמ"ן לשעבר וכיום חוקר במרכז הירושלמי לענייני חוץ וביטחון, התייחס להיעדר המשילות בלבנון בראיון לערוץ הכנסת

Students and Academics Speak Out: Campus Antisemitism and the Iran War Join our X Space hosted by @MOSSADil for a timely discussion with leading voices from academia and students on the front lines. 🕦 11:30 AM EST | 6:30 PM Israel time 🔴 LINK TO TOMORROW’S SPACE: x.com/i/spaces/1jxxg… 🎙️ Featuring: @AndrewPessin @Rona_Kaufman_ @ShabbosK @shoshanaaufzien @LishiBaker @cngsgnc @Dan_Diker @cngsgnc @sabrinasoff Be there.

My latest in @Jerusalem_Post: Reducing Zionism to Israel's "right to exist" bolsters the most insidious delegitimization of Israel. Yet many Zionists continue arguing in those terms. Instead, Zionism should be understood through the long arc of Jewish history and its influence on the West. jpost.com/opinion/articl…

Hezbollah is facing one of the most serious crises in its history. From northern Israel, Tamir Morad describes life under constant rocket fire, no warning, no distinction between civilians and soldiers. This time, Israel is targeting Hezbollah’s leadership and infrastructure, not just its weapons. Watch @TamirMur 👇

Read more >> jcfa.org/confronting-ji…

Iran isn’t fighting to win a conventional war – it’s fighting to sustain a “forever war.” As Dr. @Dan_Diker explains, this doctrine reframes loss as martyrdom and escalation as purpose. The real question isn’t why Iran keeps fighting, but what will make it stop.

Watch the full interview on CNN >> youtu.be/ersp6orTieQ

MAXIMUM PRESSURE, NOT MIXED SIGNALS Dr. @Dan_Diker, President of the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs (JCFA), on @CNN: U.S. actions on the ground show a clear strategy, not retreat, but coordinated economic and military pressure aimed at breaking Iran’s control over global energy routes and weakening the regime’s leverage. He warns: there is no real regime change in Tehran. only different faces within the same system, and cautions against falling into an Iranian “honey trap” of negotiations without sustained pressure.

Watch more >> youtu.be/uFK35qPiIdo

FORMER MOSSAD OFFICIAL: IRAN SEES SURVIVAL ITSELF AS VICTORY Oded Ailam, former head of the counterterrorism division in the Mossad and now a researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, says the United States fundamentally misunderstands Iran’s mindset. “They do not understand the culture. They do not understand the fundamentalist way of thinking,” he warned, arguing that Western logic does not apply to Tehran’s decision making. According to Ailam, for the Iranian regime, survival itself is the ultimate achievement. “If they manage to survive this war, in their minds that will be a victory,” he said, stressing that Iran is not acting like a rational Western actor. Instead, it must be analyzed through a completely different lens, one rooted in ideology rather than traditional cost benefit calculations.

How the Iran-Led Axis of Resistance Turns Loss into Leverage & Why It May Fail >> jcfa.org/provocation-as…

IRAN’S STRATEGY: PROVOCATION OVER VICTORY Full article link in the comments A Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs report by @RawaneOsmane reveals how the Axis of Resistance turns conflict into a strategic tool rather than seeking battlefield victory. Key takeaways: • Goal is sustained conflict, not military win • Civilian impact used to generate global pressure • October 7 designed to trigger large-scale escalation • Strategy now risks regional backlash and internal criticism Full article link in the comments

Read more here, by @BwMnhm >> jcfa.org/what-are-the-i…

🇾🇪 HOUTHIS OPEN NEW MARITIME FRONT Link to the full analysis by @BwMnhm below The Houthis’ entry into the war marks a strategic shift, from battlefield confrontation to global economic disruption. Key focus: • Targeting Red Sea shipping routes • Threatening Bab al-Mandeb Strait • Indirect pressure on global energy markets Even limited attacks can reroute vessels, raise costs, and destabilize supply chains. Iran’s broader strategy: • Pressure at Strait of Hormuz • Parallel disruption at Bab al-Mandeb • Expanding conflict into global trade arteries Result: Increased risk of regional escalation and global economic shock.

👉 Full interview >> youtu.be/iQfU45ecmPw

An 11-Year-Old on the Frontline: Cracks in the Iranian Regime Exposed A particularly disturbing case: an 11-year-old boy, recruited into the Basij, was killed yesterday in Iran. This is one of the first cases illustrating how far the regime is willing to go in its attempt to suppress the protests. According to reports, in recent days children as young as 12 have been recruited to man checkpoints in an effort to contain unrest in the streets. Sogand Fakheri, an Iran analyst at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, warned in an interview on Israel’s Channel 12 that this is part of a broader phenomenon: “There is no reason for a child to stand at a checkpoint or be sent to war. They are being used as human shields.” According to her, many inside Iran are also placing the blame squarely on the regime: “Iranians are saying it clearly, the Islamic Republic is responsible for the victims, no one else.”

“IRAN BELIEVES IT’S WINNING” Yoni Ben Menachem @BwMnhm, researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, says reactions in Tehran reflect growing confidence, while Gulf states are increasingly disappointed with President Trump’s threats: “There’s a lot of talk, but far less action. They feel he has abandoned them.”

טראמפ איננו רק מנהיג צבאי. כפי שאמרתי, הוא פועל כלוחם כלכלי-צבאי, שלמד את הלקחים מאפגניסטן ועיראק, שם מלחמות ממושכות נכשלו, וכעת מתמקד בהכרעה דרך לחץ כלכלי, שליטה באנרגיה ושימוש בכוח ממוקד במקום מערכות קרקע ארוכות.