Marcin Kaczmarski

Market Pullback: Buying Opportunity or Warning Sign? Investing with the Boys | Episode #7 Host | @StockSavvyShay @LogicalThesis @sam_badawi 00:50 Markets | What’s Causing the Dip? 14:58 Macro | Are There Bigger Concerns? 23:35 $RKLB | Buying the Dip or Avoiding the Burn? 36:00 $AXON | The $NVDA of Public Safety? 46:00 $ARQT | Is Arcutis a Hidden Gem in Dermatology? 51:00 $MGNI | Undervalued or Value Trap? Links to YouTube and Spotify 👇

It's funny how torn this market is. There are people who are bullish and others who are bearish. Here's why I am near term cautious at a minimum: valuations. Valuations don't matter until they do. Last year I was levered long the entire year, bc valuations were too good, it felt difficult to lose. But most stocks are now multiple times higher than their lows from 1-2y ago. The pitch is not the same. The stocks have moved more than the businesses have in that time period. We were undervalued. Now in many places we are overvalued given forward expectations. So, I keep it very simple. I am an investor. I want good returns for my capital. If I do not see it, I simply will not invest it. You cannot possibly underwrite good returns from here in any conservative manner. If you claim you can, you are defying math and logic. You can argue with me. You can't argue with numbers.

Everyone bulled up on that close Here are some daily charts for market leading stocks $NVDA $MSFT $SOXX below all MAs $PLTR below 50&20, 200 way below

2/28/25 Portfolio Update (+9.1% YTD vs $SPY +1.6%) Ex-US (23%) $KWEB 9.8% $APR.WA 5% $CIB 4.8% $NU 3.7% Healthcare/Biotech (16%) $ARQT 6.3% $CLPT 5% $PSNL 4.3% $RGNX Calls 0.7% Small Caps/Rate Sensitive (12%) $SNDA 4.7% $RKT LEAPS 4.5% $MGNI LEAPS 2.7% $TLT 21.3% Cash 27% This week was a struggle. This chop is way too stressful to trade around. I made some mistakes by overtrading, especially low conviction names which ended up as failed set ups. The issue with lower conviction names is that I'm quick to cut them when they fail, and I end up bleeding unnecessarily. It is best to stick to names I feel I can hold through volatility. This is why I greatly reduced the number of positions in my portfolio. People were laughing at me when I suggested this year would be much harder than the last two. In my view, we are in a downtrend until proven otherwise. I will be quick to change my mind when I see confirmation of a bottom or trend reversal, e.g capitulation, VIX spike, big volume reclaim of key moving averages. For now, it is difficult for me to see upside in the broad market when tech looks so heavy. Tech makes up a big % of the total market cap, so even with rotation, it will be difficult to get the broad market going. It's not like there are multiple $3T companies in other sectors this money can easily flow into. It comes down to expectations. Coming into 2023 every economist said we would get a recession. Coming into 2024 every analyst had avg expectations for the market. It is when we have a difference in expectations and reality when there is upside. Think about when we had a HOT inflation print in fall 2022 and stocks bottomed. That makes no sense, right? Well, people were expecting worse. So it isn't about the data itself, but the difference in expectations. This Q4 earnings season has been awful. Companies have been reporting good numbers, yet the reactions have mostly been sell-offs or fades. So to recap, up on bad news = bullish, down on good news = maybe not bearish, but at a minimum not bullish. So we must ask ourselves, what is the upside vs downside case? Analysts were so off sides in the last two years This year they all came in with high expectations. Seems backwards and silly. If you were meh on 2024 after a +20% year in 2023, how are you very bullish into 2025 after two +20% years? It's almost like price drives sentiment. I am not calling for a bear market, but I can see a consolidation year, e.g. $SPY ~flat on the year. We are currently in a downtrend until proven otherwise. I can change my mind quickly, and if I am convinced I will happily put more capital to work. But for right now, I am more hesitant with risking capital. This is why you will notice I have only ~50% equity exposure. This will be my guard rail so that I do not try to perfectly time the bottom, and also can navigate this volatile market with less stress. Everyone's financial journey is personal. We will differ in time horizons. I mostly invest in my taxable brokerage account and use stocks to build accessible money for my wife and I. This is why I am okay sacrificing some upside if it means protecting downside. After two incredible years, it would not surprise me if the market took a breather this year, and I do not want to fight tooth and nail for every % of gain; I prefer easy market environments to risk more capital. My base case would be a correction and a rally back to ~flat on the year. What if I am able to catch the ride up, rather than the ride down and up? If I miss the exact bottom, perhaps my returns will be lower overall, but my risk reward profile will be better for my specific investing scenario. And it is important to note that while the index may have 10% downside in a correction, individual equities will have far more downside. Thanks for reading.

FWIW I expect market to bounce here into next week barring no bad news over the weekend The stick save of the 21ema a good sign for bulls short term I am just not trying to overweight counter trend rallies Too much mental capital used trying to time it perfectly. Not worth Will wait for the breakout or bottom. Either or.

People on this app are so funny man The answer is right there in front of you....

CC @Investor_NICK_ @SixSigmaCapital @stocktalkweekly

Brutal week. I'm going way lower vol strategy. Just reduced a ton of positions. This is what I landed on for now + $SNDA in another acct which is about ~5% size total Taking up way too much mental capital to try and manage positions everyday. Low conviction names are causing too much friction. Can't hold through volatility. Simple is better. Ex US $KWEB $CIB $NU $APR.WA Rate sensitive $RKT $TLT Biotech $CLPT $PSNL $ARQT $RGNX Small Caps $MGNI $SNDA

Ok I actually made another sizable move. I trimmed latam and china and half my TLT and parked it in BIL (cash) Basically 1/4 cash 1/4 bonds 1/2 equities I'm trying to preserve $ at all costs Don't want to make any sizable bets I can regret

Retails gonna throw a fit once they realize their high flying momentum stocks have seen their peaks for this cycle

8 bookmarks so far I'm sure it's some first cycle kid pumping his fist in the air saying "I'm gonna show this boomer - soon as my unprofitable shitco trading at 40x 2028 sales recovers to new ATHs"

Only 100% left $XBI

This is gonna be very relevant soon

$BTC is at least going to $74K

Know what you own Know the valuation Understand the environment Read the room

Has not been a fun couple of weeks. Again I am not immune. 40% $TLT Short $MSFT $COST High conviction longs Less options Thank God earnings season is mostly over. Onward.

Todays earnings $RKT $PSNL $ACIC Not particularly excited about any right now lol

And if you're wondering yes I'd short this chart 😂

I wanted to see a stronger bounce today. Price action is gross imo. Time to cut lower conviction, reduce exposure, reduce leverage, etc Portfolio clean up time. If we shape up, can always add exposure back.