Matthew Howells-Barby
18.9K posts
Matthew Howells-Barby
@matthewbarby
VP Growth @krakenfx @breakoutprop | Prev: @DecentralGames / @HubSpot / cofounder @tttseocommunity (acq by @semrush)
London Katılım Aralık 2010
2.8K Takip Edilen25.8K Takipçiler
Remain convinced that the current Iran situation, and risk having some moves upward yesterday, is a chance to trim risk and position for an escalation/continuation of the conflict.
Invalidation: Brent Crude loses 95k and full ceasefire.
Otherwise: I’m short EU airlines, long EU energy, trimming existing US equity risk I held.
Matthew Howells-Barby@matthewbarby
This feels like an incredibly risking long to take (going long risk on this headline). Just doesn’t seem like anything has meaningfully changed to avoid us re-running the escalation playbook in 5 days. Could be wrong but this feels like an opportunity to trim some risk.
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This feels like an incredibly risking long to take (going long risk on this headline).
Just doesn’t seem like anything has meaningfully changed to avoid us re-running the escalation playbook in 5 days.
Could be wrong but this feels like an opportunity to trim some risk.
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@Tradermayne Thoughts on EU energy equities as a slightly different exposure to being long oil, but capturing the natural gas move, too?
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Think risk takes another leg down this week.
If we see the US/Iran follow through on an escalation tonight AND Brent crude takes out the highs, I’d personally go:
- short BTC
- short QQQ
- long USD/EUR
- long EU energy majors
Close out once we get a credible deescalation.
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Discussed this exact move in our stream last week (h/t @Crypto_Chase )
Tyler@TylerDurden
$HYPE
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Missed our stream yesterday? Take a look through the main talking points that me, @Dentoshi and @Crypto_Chase talked through.
blog.kraken.com/crypto-educati…
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Matthew Howells-Barby retweetledi
Macro Pressure Builds on Bitcoin, ft. Crypto Chase x.com/i/broadcasts/1…
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Markets pricing in 2 rate HIKES from the ECB and 3 from the BOE in 2026.
Europe gas futures up ~20% just TODAY.
Brent Crude up ~5%.
Europe is going to feel the most economic pain from this conflict. Asia not much better.
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Matthew Howells-Barby retweetledi
Current situation:
The longer the Iran conflict goes, the longer oil prices remain elevated. The longer oil prices remain elevated, the higher energy prices go. The higher energy prices go, the less disposable income consumers have. The less disposable income consumers have, the less they spend. The less they spend, the slower economic growth is.
Accelerating inflation + economic slowdown = stagflation.
Stagflation = very bearish risk assets.
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Matthew Howells-Barby retweetledi
INTEL: Powell remarks
-If don't see inflation progress won't see the rate cut
-We just don't know what effects of energy rise will be
-Inflation overshoot is mainly from goods and tariffs
-Looking through oil prices depends on inflation expectations and the broader context of five years above target
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JP signalling that inflation has to cool before rate cuts are a possibility. Also staying on until the DOJ investigation is over.
Can’t see a scenario where we have rate cuts this year.
Let’s see how long before the conversation shifts to rate HIKES…
Matthew Howells-Barby@matthewbarby
PPI data coming in VERY hot. And this is before seeing the real impact of Iran. Inflation much stickier than we want. If the Iran situation lasts months vs weeks and oil continues to rally, we get firmly into a stagflation environment. Will not be good for risk assets.
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The big unknown variable here is the economic impact of the Iran war.
Consumer spending is still resilient, but if oil remains elevated we will see a material deterioration in this IMO. This isn’t a controversial take, it’s pretty widely accepted.
The problem is most people are betting on a short conflict. Even if that’s the case, the inflation story isn’t good.
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@matthewbarby stickier than anyone wants to admit and nobody wants to be the one saying stagflation out loud yet
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PPI data coming in VERY hot. And this is before seeing the real impact of Iran.
Inflation much stickier than we want.
If the Iran situation lasts months vs weeks and oil continues to rally, we get firmly into a stagflation environment.
Will not be good for risk assets.
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While the macro set up was a little different, $BTC right now feels very similar to where we were at in August ‘22 (left).
One last move up before a bottom-forming drawdown. Weekly RSI trend similar.
Even hearing the dreaded word, “transitory” again re current inflation 👀
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