Mac 🐺

@aleabitoreddit was so wrong about not aping this 1

Holy crap $SOI. $AXTI went up 30% yesterday too. Substrates to brrr?

$SIVE tp hit, should consollidate here before higher

$SIVE executing US NASDAQ listing from Reuters. Welcome to America Sivers. I said Sivers looks like it should be valued at $2B+ soon based on today's fundamentals. And US institutions will likely be piling into the laser supplier for $MRVL and $JBL once it's on NASDAQ. This comes after a highly bullish 2.5% raise today from new "international institutional investors" to likely fund regulatory/audit requirements for the listing. "The investors in the Directed Share Issue comprise of a limited number of Swedish and international institutional and other qualified investors" We’ll likely going to see a parabolic ride up from the news. In just the last three days: -> $JBL 1.6T to use $SIVE -> $SIVE new US/international institutional investors -> $SIVE looks to be listed on NASDAQ. We're witnessing the birth of the next $LITE.

@seemab323 $IBKR

@MacnBTC On which platform you trade stocks bro ?

stocks feel as easy mode as crypto was during 2024, I just listen to people that know their shit and look at the charts AI bottleneck supercycle

I really meant it when I thought $SIVE could be valued at $2B today. When do you ever find a critical laser supplier to $MRVL, $JBL, and Hyperscaler supply chains... At $620m MC? You can't... Since there's only a few in the world. And the rest in hyperscaler supply chains from $LITE to $MTSI are in the tens of billions...

@aleabitoreddit single-handedly carrying the foreign economies with his x posts

A Guide by Serenity: How to Cripple the Western Hyperscaler buildout with just $170m. Just take over Nippon Chemical (4092) with $169m! For InP substrates, you need: Indium and High Purity Phosphorus. Thought $AXTI was a bottleneck? NCI is the bottleneck of the bottleneck. NCI is actually the leader of the high purity red phosphorus chokepoint holding 26-27% of the market share (Rasa has less share, then the rest is China). And they export to $AXTI, Sumitomo, JX that need it to make InP substrates. 
So… if you have $160m to spend to acquire NCI (plus Rasa as smaller capacity), you can remove the leading Western world’s production of 6N/7N red phosphorus needed to make InP substrates! And without InP substrates: no photonics. Fun fact: China’s tech companies would get pretty disrupted with it too by NCI. For $AXTI, the mapping/reliance is actually pretty interesting: - AXT's Tongmei outlined its structural reliance on importing high-purity precursor materials from Japan on their STAR Market listing 
- WITS data showing ~$460/kg high-purity phosphorus flowing from Japan into China So they secretly do depend on NCI. 
China does have capacity like Wylton Chemical, Qin Xi New Materials, Jinding Electronics, and Chuxiong Chuanzhi, Guizhou Wylton Jinglin Electronic Materials as well. However, they’re all smaller players so can’t make up for high purity red phosphorus capacity provided by NCI for InP substrate production at scale. $LITE CEO already said inp substrates keeps him up at night. So now with NCI, you can give the guy permanent insomnia? For just $169M. So here's what the supply chain looks like: -> DGC phosphate rock mine and ships it to NCI -> NCI refines Yellow Phosphorus into High Purity Red Phosphorus -> Sumitomo / JX / AXT melt the Red Phosphorus with Indium to grow InP Substrates -> $COHR / $LITE fab InP substrates into Lasers -> Innolight/Fabrinet package them into 800G/1.6T transceivers -> $NVDA / $GOOGL use them for ASIC/GPU clusters. 
And basically, the entire West depends on NCI to make InP substrates for photonics. I hold some very small positions, just for fun. However, Japan is not well known for price hiking. So you’d probably run into regulatory problems eg. FEFTA if you bought the company and hiked prices 15000% (like government seizing back the company once they realize)… Maybe 30-50% hikes is possible to compress fwd p/e? But very likely wont end up like $AXTI. 
 Regardless, this company is a massive, massive national security risk priced at ~$160m. As for fundamentals, they’re trading at .54 book value and a forward P/E of 11.4 so it’s probably undervalued anyway. TLDR: -> Is it the next $AXTI? No. -> Is it an unknown structural bottleneck + critical vulnerability of the Western hyperscaler buildout with photonics? Yes. -> Is there still room for re-rating? Just reverting to Book Value of 1 is immediate 80-85% upside. Maybe more if you give it multiples past 11 fwd p/e. Regardless, it’s fun to find a major point of failure in the hyperscaler supply chains for $169m.

@aleabitoreddit 26 SEK looks good for a short term target

I actually thought $SIVE should be trading at $2B+ MC today (from ~$520m) if they were listed as a US company. Not later this year. Since I’m not sure how: - $LWLG trades at 3.5x+ the valuation - packaging companies that buy their lasers trade at 5-6x their valuation. - laser companies from $MTSI to $LITE have premiums trading in the tens of billions. And Sivers are in hyperscaler supply chains through $MRVL, $JBL, O-Net, and others rather than being dependent on one customer. There’s not very many publicly listed AI DC laser companies in the world either. So either it’s a highly sought after acquisition target for $AVGO or $MRVL that want to vertically integrate upstream. Or they can pull a $LITE that went from $17->$800 and downstream TAM expansion the ELS/optical transceiver stack through IP acquisitions. Depends how ambitious the company is of course but i just don’t think anyone noticed this laser supplier in Sweden since my thesis post. Just might require a little patience for the US listing and I’m almost certain US institutions are interested like they were with $IQE. DD periods usually last a few weeks after they read my thesis but I see a clear path to $10B+ MC from here over the next few years.

@aleabitoreddit higher!

Pretty confident about $SIVE regarding institutions coming in next. Laser supplier for $MRVL, $JBL, and a few others. Valuation disconnect makes no sense when they’re designed into hyperscaler supply chains at ~$430M. And you look at CPO and 1.6T transceiver ramp over next few years, it’s insanity. It looks like the start of the next $LITE over the next year, imo institutions probably late to the party due to Swedish listing.

@iamIbnMasud @reflectmoney dumbass ceo had all of the vaults tvl in drift, so when drift got hacked they lost everything.

@MacnBTC @reflectmoney What happened to your fund?

was looking though old wallets I don't use anymore and found I had $100k stables in this a16z backed project @reflectmoney tldr: my $100,000 is now $450 that's DEFI in 2026 for you. there is 0 reason to have money in any of these protocols.

prob will get 15 likes or so but charting and trading these stocks make me feel alive again. meanwhile crypto still dead af.

so technically nothing changed in regards to the war etc but insiders decided fuck it let's pump everything and squeeze out the shorts got it.

$BTC finally over 1D, 25 SMMA. I still think some more sideways before we try for a new breakout of this range nothing changed but stocks and crypto full-sending, this is without the printer being on. Idk what's going on so still stabled on the crypto side and trading stocks

@ttexashedge either down or sideways, what else

@MacnBTC what about the others lol

From the list: SIMTECH - ATH AAOI - ATH FORM - ATH TER - ATH SNDK - ATH WDC - ATH PLAB - ATH STX - ATH CAMT - ATH today picked up my first EU stock in a 6 months, same field AI bottleneck: $PVA (TePla AG), $600m German. looking for quick +50%, gl

@ThePumponomics bro bought near, zec when he could have taken same amount and showed into any ai bottleneck stock and made more risk free but each to their own

last cycle i bought $sol at $20 and sold at $250. retired off that trade. ngl, gonna be a tough act to follow. back with $5.4m for round 2. a week ago i had $1.7m in cash "waiting to deploy." turns out i'm not very patient. as of last sunday im 96% deployed: $near: $2.1m $hype: $1.8m $zec: $1.3m cash: $200k (waiting to deploy) finished buying sunday. portfolio is up ~$600k since then. sometimes the best trade is just pulling the trigger instead of waiting for the perfect price. currently slightly down on one position and up on two. doesn't matter yet since these are 1-2 year holds. every update posted with proof whether its green or red. no hiding. could've walked away after last cycle. but i love the game and every dollar i compound now sets my kids up for whatever comes next. goal: $5m → $30m solana story if you missed it: x.com/ThePumponomics… rd 2 game plan with original bid levels: x.com/ThePumponomics…

my thoughts on the ceasefire and markets: - stocks bounced record numbers with many of the ai bottleneck stocks I posted going ath - 2 week ceasefire announced by trump and Iran already sending new rockets this at GCC countries this morning - bounced way too high for what it is, gap down to $6,600 on SPY. we will dump next days - still expecting $6,100 mid term, probably this summer or later this year nothing else to do but wait, boring period -> hyperinflation is coming