Michael Kugelman

India’s Cockroach Movement is one of the few big anti-govt campaigns to emerge in the Modi era & could become his biggest challenge over his 12 yrs in power. It’s a reminder for Delhi that in politics, nothing can be taken for granted. For @Foreignpolicy: foreignpolicy.com/2026/07/22/ind…

There’s another, oft-forgotten, factor to consider: Gen Zia banned student unions in the 1980s, and for the most part they haven’t been reinstated. Given Pakistan’s youth bulge and given how central students/young people are to activism, that ban’s legacy shouldn’t be overlooked.

But today, these different movements aren’t merging or uniting. There’s plenty of shared grievances against the state, but not much joining of forces. Why? Perhaps Pakistan’s social cleavages (in a richly diverse country) help explain the absence of a truly mass movement today.

Why isn’t Pakistan experiencing a mass youth-led movement for change, as we’ve seen recently in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal and now India? It’s a fair Q; the drivers of these movements-corruption, repression, joblessness, alienation-are very present in Pakistan. Some thoughts:

The end of the protests in India (for now) is a Pyrrhic victory for Delhi. The crisis is over. But it brought to the fore the anger many young Indians harbor toward the govt. The repressive response seeded more anger. And Delhi’s concessions today could have a galvanizing effect.

Youth unemployment’s been a persistent challenge for Modi’s 3 govts. It’s flown under the radar amid talk of India’s growth story & ascension to one of the world’s top econs. But it’s always been there. The current protests, which aren’t just about education, are a wake up call.

It’s not just in India where young people are protesting about education-it’s recently happened in Nepal & Bangladesh too. What links them: Large youth bulges, grievances against ed policy, concerns about joblessness, and a view that the state doesn’t treat them with dignity.

India’s protests tap into anger at the very issues-repression, unemployment, lack of dignity-that galvanize and mobilize young people the most. They may pose a bigger challenge for Modi than the CAA & farm law protests, but his sizable popularity will likely limit their impact.

The biggest risk of Pakistan’s prime Iran mediation role now stands exposed: It can become the fall guy for failed peace talks & be accused of naively pushing for doomed talks. But if it keeps up its efforts & there’s eventually peace, it’ll get a lot of credit for persevering.

Sheikh Hasina has said she’ll return to Bangladesh in December and voluntarily present herself in court. What may explain this decision, why now, and will it actually happen? Latest for @ForeignPolicy: foreignpolicy.com/2026/07/15/ban…

Indian PM Modi’s Southeast Asia trip this week is an effort to pursue broader strategic objectives-related to China, the Global South, and being a net security provider-in a region that has long been a top policy priority. This week for @ForeignPolicy: foreignpolicy.com/2026/07/08/mod…

I was a guest on this @AJEnglish Inside Story debate about the Indus Waters Treaty (a rare sustained India-Pakistan success story), and how India’s decision to suspend the treaty could impact India-Pakistan relations at an especially tense moment. youtube.com/watch?v=mQA550…

One potential brake on the violence is Pak holding back and not wanting to get bogged down w/Afghanistan while focusing on Iran war mediation. But its most recent strikes-which hit three Afghan provinces-was one of the most intense and deadly escalations seen to this point.

Pakistan views its military actions in Afg as a CT imperative, which-combined w/the failure of talks-gives it little incentive to relent. USG support for Pak’s actions will embolden it further. And the Taliban will continue to retaliate-esp b/c of the toll on Afghan civilians.

The oft-overlooked Afghanistan-Pakistan conflict remains alarming on many levels. The scale of hostilities is increasing, the toll on civilians is unrelenting (at least 28 killed in most recent Pak strikes, per UN) & internationally mediated talks have failed to end the violence.

Tarique Rahman’s recent visit to China-part of his first trip abroad as pm-wasn’t just another visit with a key partner. It also marked a shift in BD-China ties & sent a key signal to India, amid talk of BD-India rapprochement. Latest for @ForeignPolicy: foreignpolicy.com/2026/07/01/ban…

"Another India-Pakistan conflict is highly likely ... it could prove even more serious than the war last year. But for now, there is at least some reason to believe that both countries are aware of this great danger, and that they want to do what they can to avoid such a scenario," writes Michael Kugelman time.com/article/2026/0…

India-Pakistan ties are in a deep freeze. However, history, current geopolitics, and a growing awareness of the dangers of renewed escalation suggest the relationship could gradually improve. That is, at least until the next crisis hits. My essay @TIME: time.com/article/2026/0…