Michael B.G. Froman

@xMcQuaidx @SquawkStreet Hope all is well with you too. Please convey my well-wishes to Uncle Arnie.

@MikeFroman @SquawkStreet The one upside to geopolitical firestorms is that I get to tell my uncle (Arnold Scherer) that I see you regularly on TV. Hope all is well Froman. It's been a long time!

I will be on @SquawkStreet soon to discuss the latest on Iran.

Iran conflict is now about reopening Strait of Hormuz, says CFR's Michael Froman cnbc.com/video/2026/03/…

The Iran war has already triggered a geoeconomic firestorm—affecting everything from food to financial markets to AI. My @CFR_org colleagues @Brad_Setser, Michael Werz, @ChrisRMcGuire, Roger Ferguson, Rebecca Patterson, and I assess the fallout: cfr.org/articles/how-t…

"We are in the midst of what could be an unprecedented and escalating global energy crisis," writes CFR President @MikeFroman. "The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has the potential to remove some 20 million barrels per day from global oil supply, or about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption," he writes. Froman discusses the weaponization of energy with experts Dan Poneman and @JasonBordoff. on.cfr.org/40xcXWR

Great to join Closing Bell Overtime on CNBC this afternoon to analyze the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. It takes two to tango. Weakened as Iran may be, they still have a vote in deciding when hostilities truly come to an end. Their drone and missile forces are severely degraded but will continue to pose a threat. Iran also possesses ~450kg of 60%-enriched uranium. Securing that stockpile would likely require U.S. boots on the ground or a breakthrough diplomatic solution—the former is fraught, the latter is unlikely. For now, the U.S. appears committed to achieve its core military objective of destroying Iran's power projection capabilities. Where it and Israel stands with regard to regime change is still ambiguous. In the meantime, the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the shutting in of oil production is creating wild market volatility. What impact that has on Iran and the United States’ perspective on the timeline of the conflict remains to be seen. cnb.cx/4rXSKWd

As we consider how this might end, I am reminded that there is a difference between concluding a successful military operation and achieving a positive outcome for Iran’s people.

Such an outcome is far from assured in Iran, given the complex power-sharing arrangement between the clerical establishment and the security apparatus and the ideological rigidity of both constituencies.

🧵What’s that famous line of Michael Corleone’s in The Godfather Part III about the mafia? “Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in.” In my latest column for @CFR_org, I offer my early assessment of the war in Iran. mikefroman.substack.com/p/an-early-ass…

"As we consider how this might end, I am reminded that there is a difference between concluding a successful military operation and achieving a positive outcome for Iran’s people," CFR President @MikeFroman writes. "The U.S. military objectives appear achievable. Israel’s political objectives may be more difficult. But what this all means for a future of freedom and prosperity of the Iranian people is the most difficult question of all." on.cfr.org/40M0pLd

Now rescheduled after a snow cancellation in Jan.: In DC on March 31? Come to a discussion of The Party's Interests Come First: The Life of Xi Zhongxun at @AU_SIS. Panelists include Patrick Jackson, Evan Medeiros, and @katiestallard. Thrilled @MikeFroman of @CFR_org, where I just became a senior fellow, will moderate. eventbrite.com/e/book-launch-…

In the meantime, uncertainty will persist, including with respect to global energy and agricultural markets, the potential for fragmentation inside Iran, and the status of Iran's ~460kg of 60% enriched uranium.

The air war has been immensely effective in degrading Iran's missile, drone, and command and control elements. But you can only achieve so much from standoff range. It might prove more difficult to achieve regime change from the air.

I joined @andrewrsorkin on @SquawkCNBC this morning to discuss the objectives of the U.S. and Israeli campaign in Iran. cnbc.com/video/2026/03/…

Looking forward to it.

CFR President @MikeFroman joined @aishahhasnie on @FoxNews to discuss the U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran. Watch their conversation:

Last night, I spoke with @LlamasNBC about the situation in Iran. Follow @CFR_org for more expert analysis. youtu.be/cQYkSUd7LQo?si…

CFR President @MikeFroman joined Jessica Yellin to discuss the Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs, U.S. policy toward Iran, and more. Watch their conversation: newsnotnoisejessicayellin.substack.com/p/a-cartel-shu…