MotoADVR

Can electric motorcycles survive a recession? motoadventurer.com/2024/12/16/wil…

More banter about telling Pierer what to do with @KTMUSA open.spotify.com/episode/4aEYeP…

The @KTMUSA mothership has some issues to solve but the biggest issue is direction and identity. I have an idea… motoadventurer.com/2024/11/25/fix…

@elonmuskADO 86750309…

@texasrunnerDFW Can we discuss 70s inflation?

I have a growing concern the Fed is going to cut soon and the market will throw a big summer party while shelter inflation quietly reaccelerates Will this ultimately lead us to a point in 2025 where the Fed is forced to hike again? The market is NOT going to like it

Rent Inflation. Show me on the chart where the rate hikes started working:

@CarBusinessMan This is true depending on features. If a 2025 has a bunch of epa trash and nanny functions and the previous model doesn’t… I’ll pay more for freedom.

Customers make this mistake often: 2024 Ram 1500 Laramie MSRP $72,345 Discount $14,000 2025 Ram 1500 Laramie MSRP $71,040 Discount $12,000 I bet we’ll sell the last 2 2024s by the end of the month. People think the end of the model year is the best time to buy. It’s not.

@SawyerMerritt 😴

NEWS: GM has started production of the Chevy Silverado EV RST First Edition. • Range: 440 miles • Price: $95k • 350 kW charging, 100 miles of range in 10 mins • 0-60 mph in under 4.5s • 4 wheel steering • 9" longer than a Cybertruck • 10,000 lb towing, 1,500 lb payload • Offboard power of 10.2 kW capability • 754 horsepower • 17.7" screen • 24" wheels

@NewsLambert @AzizSunderji Businesses, industries, and governments know nothing but “more”. More everything has ended. For the first time in human history the globe is about to grapple with human population contraction… not by calamity but by choice.

U.S. housing market falls short: 18 million fewer people than projected by Census in 2008 @AzizSunderji finds the U.S. fertility rate is falling much faster than expected resiclubanalytics.com/p/us-housing-m…

@GuyDealership Scheduling with lots of places is shockingly painful these days. So is trying to purchase the correct replacement part for DYI people. Seems like another topic you could visit.

My wife just called me extremely frustrated. She called a local Toyota dealership to make an appointment for a 15,000 miles service + oil change + inspection. No one picked up. She tried to use the online scheduling portal. Didn’t work. The portal was confusing and listed multiple inspections with similar descriptions but at different prices (unclear what is what). The result? This store just lost business, forever. Yes, I could call up the General Manager or use my “connections” to get VIP treatment, but why should I have to? Imagine every customer that goes through this but doesn’t have a platform to post about it? If you’re a General Manager or Service Manager at a dealership, please stop what you’re doing and audit your process right now. I’m dead serious. This is crazy and makes 0 sense in 2024. Newsflash - There are enough ways for dealership *service* departments to lose market share to competitors nowadays: High repair costs, labor constraints, part shortages. A bad scheduling process should not be one of them and, frankly, is like shooting yourself in the foot.

@texasrunnerDFW I’m a world of fiat currency and endless regulation, supply and demand are heavily manipulated.

Nationwide housings crashes are very rare We’ve had 2 in the last 100 years Can we have another? Sure. Point me to the bomb 💣 Find the leverage in the system that will unwind everything Outside of that, markets trade at the mercy of basic supply and demand 7/7

Is it 2007 again? Many experienced trauma during the GFC—losing homes, jobs, families Now, we have housing PTSD As veterans returning from war hear fireworks & flinch, thinking, “bomb!” Today, we flinch at the rapid home price appreciation since 2020 Feels familiar 1/7

@texasrunnerDFW “TWO (impossible) mandates”

The Fed has TWO (official) mandates The first one has been quieted from a scream to an annoyingly persistent hum The second one is starting to make a lot more noise…

@GuyDealership How’s that Johnny cash song go? The ring of fire…

Used car prices are dropping faster than usual. 3-year-old cars depreciated by *1.6%* in April compared to only *1%* between 2014 and 2019. What gives? Here's my hypothesis - > Tax refund season was weaker than usual this year. > That led to a higher percentage of inventory remaining on dealer lots. > And that led to reduced demand for additional inventory at auctions. What I'm looking out for over the next 30-45 days: Will vehicle depreciation trends stabilize, or will they continue dropping faster than expected due to weakening demand? (Data via Manheim)

Say it with me: incentives drive behavior. Biggest concern I hear from Stellantis dealers (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, etc): Incentives are out of whack -- in a big way. The automaker has abruptly stopped paying some of its dealers for positive customer surveys and is instead paying them on the "number of cars ordered." (???) It's unclear to me at the moment how far and wide this has spread (nationally vs. regionally) and how many dealers have been impacted... But either way, feels like an uncalculated, short-term move by a brand struggling to hit sales targets. Weird move.

If this gets 10,000 likes, @GuyDealership will order a Tesla and exclusively drive it for a year.

@GuyDealership Less moving parts. Makes lots of sense. Although, let’s discuss cost of ownership over 16 years

Can i say something without everybody getting mad

@texasrunnerDFW @glennkelman Jaded millennial, former homeowner here.

The things @glennkelman says in this Fortune article hit hard with what every Real Estate Professional has experienced in the last 3 years Housing is in a recession while the rest of the economy booms 💥 The rate hikes are “not working” in terms of housing affordability ➡️ You can see it on this platform in weary Retwit accounts ➡️ You can see it in normal families trying to “make do” with too small of homes who can’t afford to upgrade ➡️ You can see it in jaded millennials who have been waiting and waiting for an entry point in this market What is happening here is something we have not experienced in our lifetimes—the normal business cycle is being overrun by our long term debt cycle Monetary policy is losing its efficacy, and our currency is debasing against asset prices—homes, unfortunately are unique assets that actually also fill a utilitarian need Why should I listen to some rich greedy CEO? You may ask Consider this: “While Kelman holds a 2% stake in Redfin, he is the lowest paid person on his executive team. He takes home $300,000 a year in a cash salary, and requests that he only get a bonus if positive net income is achieved” That makes him a pretty rare gem! Article linked in comments

@GuyDealership I think you left out, consumers were foolish (or uneducated) enough that it never occurred to them they would be under water. That’s how hyper inflation happens. They literally think everything gets more expensive indefinitely.

Pandemic-era car buys are backfiring on owners: A record number of consumers owe more on their auto loans than what their vehicles are actually worth. Percentage of new car deals with an “upside down” trade-in: Q4 2021: 14.9% Q4 2022: 17.7% Q4 2023: 20.4% (!) How did this happen? Soaring new car supply has been driving down new car prices, leading to rapidly declining prices for comparable used car models that are 1 to 3 years old. And car dealers aren’t immune either… Dealers loaded up with used inventory are focusing on moving those cars faster, as depreciation trends accelerate. Here are my takeaways - The next 12 months will test the American consumer’s resilience as vehicle supply rises and the decline in values accelerates. The “fundamentals” of operating a dealership are back in vogue again after a 3-year hiatus. Dealers that embrace technology to help move/sell their inventory faster will win in an increasingly volatile car market. Data via CDG Partner: @Edmunds For more insights and helpful tools to get your inventory in front of more car shoppers: edmu.in/3JcbkoQ #edmundspartner

@GuyDealership @Meta Meta filter is in overdrive right now. Anything remotely negative about economics is shadow banned.

$200. That’s all it would take for the average consumer to save on their monthly payment for them to consider a Chinese car like BYD says Alan Haig. Average car buyers don’t care where their car was made if it pays for their groceries for the week. And China knows this. Alan Haig, President of Haig Partners, explains in <30 seconds:

@GuyDealership 1) consumer, freelance blogger 2) i like hearing about market conditions, deals, trends, commentary about unintended consequences; sometimes things get too “inside baseball”

Trying to sharpen the pencil: 1) Who are you and why do you follow me? 2) Any specific content you really like? dislike? (Promise i'm not having an existential crisis this morning)

Had an awesome chat with @sammanicom this winter. We cover all the details about overland camping and living via motorcycle. open.spotify.com/episode/2voerZ…