NBER

The remaining carbon budget is insufficient for most countries to achieve economic development goals, even with technology transfer from advanced economies, from @galinahale_ucsc, Michael Halling, Nora Alice. Paulus, and Han H.G. Pham nber.org/papers/w34978

Examining China's transformation from pharmaceutical free rider to global innovator over the past decade, driven by National Reimbursement Drug List reform, knowledge creation, and talent flow, from Panle Jia Barwick, Hongyuan Xia, and Tianli Xia nber.org/papers/w34977

Featured in the latest Digest: Employment Outcomes in Opportunity Zones nber.org/digest/202603/…

Hill-Burton Act hospital grants reduced out-of-hospital births and infant mortality, especially among non-white populations, but only when funds went to public hospitals, from @owen_thompson83, @jasonmfletcher, and Karin Wu nber.org/papers/w34976

High school grade point averages are the dominant predictor of academic success at public universities, from @TheodoreJJoyce1, Mina Afrouzi Khosroshahi, Sarah Truelsch, Kerstin Gentsch, and Kyle Du nber.org/papers/w34975

Financial noise in exchange rates and stock markets drives output gaps. In this study’s model, targeting a broad financial conditions index recruits arbitrageurs and dampens this noise, from Ricardo J. Caballero and @alpsimsek_econ nber.org/papers/w34974

A study on the identification and estimation of dynamic matching models of the labor market shows that usual measures of sorting and monopsony power are biased, from Cristina Gualdani, Elena Pastorino, @PaulaAureo, and Sergio Salgado nber.org/papers/w34973

Proposing a new strategy to estimate reserve demand—a middle ground between reduced-form methods and fully structural quantitative approaches, from @Lagos_R_ and @gmnavarro nber.org/papers/w34972

Studying how state Medicaid coverage of GLP-1s for weight management affects prescribing and spending, using staggered adoption across states, from @coady_wing, @weilun_lo, Maddie Potter, Tarik Yuce, @berto_econ, @cawley_john, @thuynguyen_dieu, and @KosaliSimon nber.org/papers/w34949

Open call for papers: AI, Digitization, and Financial Markets. Conference to be held in Hyderabad, India on December 14–15, 2026. Submit papers by 11:59pm EDT on June 17, 2026. More information: nber.org/calls-papers-a…

Characterizing the maximum EPS solution to three companion papers, from Itzhak Ben-David and @alexchinco nber.org/papers/w34971

Investigating how gun interest group money and public opinion shape state gun laws, from Takuma Iwasaki, Eric A. Baldwin, John J. Donohue, and Tai Markman nber.org/papers/w34970

When jobs are scarce, both men and women prefer that men work—but exposure to just six weeks of women working is enough to shift both partners' support for women's labor supply, from Yueh-ya Hsu, Reshmaan N. Hussam, Erin M. Kelley, and Gregory Lane nber.org/papers/w34969

On average national election winners benefit from an incumbency advantage, but this effect is short-lived and differs markedly across contexts, from Raphaël Descamps, @benjaminmarx, @VinPons, and @vincent_rollet nber.org/papers/w34968

Developing a spatial voting model in which two candidates from each party choose positions on a left-right spectrum, compete in (within-party) primaries, and then face off in a general election, from @IvoWelch nber.org/papers/w34967

Lower-income individuals experience a higher degree of correlation between labor earnings growth and stock returns, from Jason Scott, John B. Shoven, @sita.slavov, and John G. Watson nber.org/papers/w34966

Inner probabilities reveal LLM uncertainty: high-inner-confidence signals are more accurate and raise Sharpe ratios about 20 percent, while declared confidence is biased and brings no gains, from Hui Chen, Antoine Didisheim, and Luciano A. Somoza nber.org/papers/w34965

Linking AI publications to US Census microdata for 42K researchers shows a massive AI salary explosion (top 1 percent industry pay equals $1.94M) that is pulling talent out of universities, from @ufukakcigit, Craig A. Chikis, Emin Dinlersoz, and @ngoldschlag nber.org/papers/w34964

Working from home (WFH) raises fertility rates. Globally 0.3 extra kids per WFH couple, and in the US 0.5 extra kids per WFH couple, from Steven J. Davis, @cevatgirayaksoy, Jose Maria Barrero, @I_Am_NickBloom, Katelyn Cranney, @MathiasDolls, and @PabloZarate98 nber.org/papers/w34963

People across the gun divide share a desire for safety, but disagree about whether lethal firearms provide it. Studying non-lethal firearms as one potential approach, from Marcella Alsan, Joshua Schwartzstein, and @S_Stantcheva nber.org/papers/w34962