@galenhall Maybe a little less than that, haven't looked at college data but in the NBA, the EV of a possession starts to decline significantly late in the shot clock. Also might depend on whether a team is in the bonus.
English
Nate Silver
44.2K posts
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Silver Bulletin, not the only thing I'm doing but the main thing and the best thing! https://t.co/mYtb4rgUyT
New York Katılım Ağustos 2008
1.7K Takip Edilen3M Takipçiler
How much is an end-of-half possession worth? Say, 15 seconds? If it's like 0.9, I think the defense should foul a so/so FT shooter with somebody who can afford a foul. A 65% shooter is worth 1.3 points (if they are in double bonus, even less if 1-1), and now you get the 0.9 point EOH possession, so you lose 0.4 points or less instead of 0.9.
English
We'll keep our odds updated here:
natesilver.net/p/2026-march-m…
English
Duke hurt a bit by having a tougher pathway to get out of the region with St. Johns/Kansas/Sparty/UConn all looming
English
Lots of compression after the first round among the four #1 seeds, who basically all have the exact same rating now.
English
I don't consider myself an AI optimist or pessimist particularly. I've gone through different phases relative to consensus. But the "stochastic parrots" people are basically telling the Wright Brothers that their "flying machines" will never work. Just a total embarrassment.
English
Since the technology is changing so fast, AI takes really expose who is able to think on the fly versus who is totally impervious to new evidence because they carved out some "brand" years ago.
English
The model didn't love that narrow Duke escape, not a huge swing in the odds, but their championship probability is down a hair. Nice wins by Houston and Illinois.
English
Would have been the biggest upset ever btw. We actually have Norfolk St. vs. Missouri (~2%) in 2012 ahead of the two 16-1 upsets as the least likely historical NCAA outcome, but Duke-Siena would have been a 1% chance.
English
If a #1 seed falls 10 points behind any school that runs a polling institute at any point in the game (Siena, Quinnipiac, Marist) they should just be eliminated IMO.
English
Judging by longstanding Silver Bulletin/538 traffic patterns the peak time for people filling out NCAA brackets is basically 10pm the night before (i.e. right now). And then like literally 5 minutes before the deadline on Thursday AM. As a fellow procrastinator I admire it.
English
Final women's NCAA projections before First Four games. UConn with a pretty clear lead, no surprise, though or model likes the other #1 seeds a bit more than consensus.
English
The point is that 26% is 1 in 4 voters which is ok but not great when you’re the insurgent candidate running against two establishment choices. She would have lost by more in a 2-way race.
Annie Wu (all socials: @annie_wu_22)@Annie_Wu_22
26-29 (the result) is actually a smaller margin than 46-50 (his hypothetical) bro is a statistician and cannot do math apparently
English
Not a huge impact from Iran yet, but a new net low in our Trump approval tracking today fwiw.
English
@Noahpinion I mean, it's a bad sales pitch, because it's a bad argument, because it's a bad idea.
English
AI accelerationists are doing a terrible job of selling the idea of a world of complete human disempowerment.
Why would we want to live in a world where we're merely slaves or pets of a machine? Why wouldn't we just ban AI instead?
This is a bad sales pitch.
Jason Abaluck@Jabaluck
I think it's worth separating two worlds: a) Partial automation -- AI automates some stuff but not others (like a supercharged version of past technology), with wages falling for some and increasing for others. In this world, I agree completely about disempowerment. Promises to prevent job loss will be hugely politically popular, and sometimes defensible for political economy reasons. b) Full automation -- the world in a) lasts as long as most people can delude themselves into thinking they are adding value relative to a machine, which I think will last for some time: threadreaderapp.com/thread/1870884…. But once it becomes unmistakable that few people can, norms about work will shift quickly. If humans still have a say in the matter, norms about governance will shift as well -- if aligned, the machines will also be better than humans at normative reasoning and policy-making (a subset of automating everything!), so politician will be one of the jobs which is automated.
English
@SpecialPuppy1 26% of the vote seems kinda shitty idk, it's not like she lost 50-46
English
There's plenty of appetite for progressivism, etc., within the Democratic electorate, but the Very Online version of it doesn't really travel well.
English
These numbers will continue to update once games are played: natesilver.net/p/2026-march-m…
English
Since the First Four is about to tip (*we* consider that part of the tournament even if your office pool doesn't), here are our final pre-tournament forecasts with updated injury info. Very close at the top.
English