Navigating the Vortex

Is a Russian veto on leadership about to provoke the downfall of the OSCE? The survival of the world’s largest regional security organisation is under threat from Russian ambitions to upend the existing international order. #osce #russia #EU navigatingthevortex.com/p/is-a-russian…

Everyone's watching fuel prices. Nobody's watching what comes 6–10 weeks behind: 30% of global fertiliser exports transit Hormuz. Food prices are coming. Read highlights & download the @navvortex report navigatingthevortex.com/p/operation-ep… #FoodSecurity #GlobalEconomy #Iranwar

Russia is a likely winner of the war against Iran, but only in the short term: bit.ly/4rUzby4 via @navvortex

The OSCE – notwithstanding the organisation’s ongoing crisis – still represents an important forum to articulate and negotiate participating States’ national interests: bit.ly/3MXYcci via @navvortex

The inaugural meeting of the Board of Peace will mostly be remembered for its chairman-for-life threatening Iran with war: bit.ly/4tUf44z via @navvortex

Putin may think that he has successfully tricked Trump into doing his bidding. But on this occasion, Zelensky may have outsmarted them both, albeit at the price of the war against his country continuing: bit.ly/4tsTbsF via @navvortex

Claims of progress in the negotiations in Abu Dhabi are therefore at best over-optimistic and at worst self-deluding: bit.ly/3Mfn2E7 via @navvortex

After two rounds of talks in Abu Dhabi, it remains unclear whether an actual negotiation process will now get under way between Russia and Ukraine and what its format and direction will be: bit.ly/4bVyCif

Europe and its few scattered allies elsewhere need to start acting as if they were alone in a hostile world—because they are: bit.ly/4pVO0hV via @navvortex

Current transatlantic de-escalation notwithstanding, has Europe done enough to persuade President Trump to change course permanently over Greenland? bit.ly/4adJgj5 via @navvortex

The war in Ukraine is likely to mark a few more milestones before there is another opportunity to prove again that aggression never pays: bit.ly/4pCQOAB via @navvortex

The law of the jungle is back — and the US, and much of the rest of the world, will ultimately pay a heavy price for it: bit.ly/3YsbbVV via @navvortex

In light of recent US experiences in Afghanistan and Iraq, more instability, not less, will be the likely result of the capture of Maduro: bit.ly/4qFYMtC via @navvortex

The fighting in Ukraine is likely to continue unabated for the time being as neither of the warring sides, nor their backers, appear exhausted enough for peace: bit.ly/4azaQrU via @navvortex

Internal divisions over Ukraine funding and Mercosur trade deal expose limitations of EU leadership in a world carved up by Washington, Moscow and Beijing: bit.ly/3MEtWD1 via @navvortex

For Europe, deterring Russia and appeasing the US have become existential priorities in a bigger game in which Ukraine might end up as yet another bargaining chip: bit.ly/4abQ8xV via @navvortex

Available now: The first episode of Navigating the Vortex | Ethnopolitics Edition featuring an interview with George Kyris on the recognition of Palestine: bit.ly/4rp2ZTq @A_Kartsonaki @GeorgeKyris @Rout_PoliticsIR

The amateurish nature of a process that produced Trump’s 28-point plan should be the real worry for Ukraine and its partners: bit.ly/483wTFp via @navvortex

Talk of Ukraine’s political and military collapse may turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy playing into Putin's hands: bit.ly/4rf5bwV via @navvortex

The continuation of Russia’s war against Ukraine serves Chinese interests in several important ways: bit.ly/4p66agW via @navvortex

Tolerating corruption is a luxury that Ukraine can no longer afford if it wants to survive as an independent country — the latest from Tetyana Malyarenko and me for @navvortex: bit.ly/3WXZJk5