The Nonzero Newsletter

NEW: Trump + AI = ? The case for hope. (Plus: graphs of the week) nonzero.org/p/trump-ai

If you want long-term peace in the Middle East, you might want to reconsider which side you're rooting for. @robertwrighter's latest piece: nonzero.org/p/why-american…

Iran is widely called the most destabilizing force in the Middle East. @robertwrighter argues the evidence is less clear than many consumers of American MSM would assume. nonzero.org/p/why-american…

Even if Trump wanted to build a new Middle East security architecture, who would trust him to uphold it? nonzero.org/p/why-american…

"You don't have to land many missiles or suicide drones on targets in Dubai before Dubai's commercial identity—as a place where the rich can live and party and park assets, and international business can get done—is imperiled." More from @robertwrighter: nonzero.org/p/why-american…

The inaugural issue of NonZero Network Digest, timely highlights from the work of NonZero partners @dwdavison, @MarkLGoldberg, @KaiserKuo, @paulbloomatyale, and @GlennLoury. nonzero.org/p/nznet-digest…

Amodei’s stand against the Pentagon had its own kind of public relations value—including inside Anthropic. nonzero.org/p/dario-amodei…

"We don't know what AGI or superintelligence will ultimately deliver. But we know it's coming. And we must plan now to make sure we have the energy infrastructure to support it." — Eric Schmidt. New piece by @robertwrighter on who's driving the AI race — and why the urgency deserves scrutiny. nonzero.org/p/winning-the-…

"The race itself is inherently dangerous, since the side that's losing could decide that it has to resort to extreme measures if it wants to escape subjugation." More from @robertwrighter on the race to superintelligence/AGI: nonzero.org/p/winning-the-…

More from @robertwrighter: nonzero.org/p/winning-the-…

But there’s a case for making those three superpowers easily comparable at a glance:

The visual display of quantitative information can be powerful; a glance at a good graph can give you the big picture fast. By the same token, visually displayed data can be subtly, yet powerfully, misleading.

After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, there was more American bemoaning of the invasion of a democracy by an autocracy than of the invasion of a sovereign nation, even though sovereignty, not democracy, is what made the invasion illegal. The "beat China to AGI" argument shares the same underlying perspective. nonzero.org/p/winning-the-…

The latest Earthling questions the common assumption that the US is in some sense better than China and will thus handle the dominance granted by AI supremacy more virtuously and responsibly than China would. @robertwrighter nonzero.org/p/winning-the-…

Would AI-powered American dominance of Planet Earth, if achieved, be a good thing? nonzero.org/p/winning-the-…

The dashed curve is the curve that was fit to the data that existed as of the spring of last year. More: nonzero.org/p/trump-ai

The "Manichaean" framing of democracy vs. autocracy has stalled AI safety cooperation with China. Ironically, Trump’s transactional realism might make rapprochement possible under the right circumstances. nonzero.org/p/trump-ai