Oil Bandit 🛢️

ohh... you think it's bad?

it is a Middle East problem... right?

@ALikhodedov @CRUDEOIL231 and I said 3.5... in reality nobody knows.. there were 4 VLCC at berth yesterday, does that mean they load 8mb/d? NO... end of month will se how many barrels moved and divide that by 31.

And how much goes through Yanbu? I keep reading that port's nameplate capacity (which is a bottleneck, assuming they use also NGL line of the pipeline) is 5mbd; Goldman claims in their report that that Yanbu 4 day average exports is 4.8mbd, but their report has a ton of wrong numbers .... I remember Argus said that Yanbu redirection capacity is only circa 2.5mbd.

This is how it looks like

@ALikhodedov @CRUDEOIL231 Yanbu maxed out... Ras Tanura in the Persian gulf has one or two VLCCs to load and that's it

@CRUDEOIL231 @OilCfd 4.5mbd would be what - exports through Suez (via Yanbu and other terminals)? What is your number for that?

@DontWor36747591 @AdiSurreyEnergy a pipe blew out in the Sharara oil field... some production is holding back till tomorrow

@OilCfd @AdiSurreyEnergy Why is Libya out what happened

Physical Brent is finally picking up big time: AALPHA LUNCHTIME MARKS 18/03/26 1230 GMT CFDs (Rolls): 23-27/03 Jun +815 (+65) 30-02/04 Jun +750 (+102) 07-10/04 Jun +648 (+118) 13-17/04 Jun +530 (+112)

@TusharJain___ @CRUDEOIL231 anything can happen, but not while WTI is <100

@OilCfd @CRUDEOIL231 Means that can happen right ????

@OilCfd @CRUDEOIL231 Hi, Now as expected US is in Panic and attacking Oil Infra now..and Iran vows to retaliate.....soo Front Brent again to $120 ishhhhhh. I want to ask is..What are the chances now for US to do Crude Exports ban ??

@CRUDEOIL231 they just re started Ras Tanura refinery, they will churn some gasoil... is easier to squeeze an MR or LR1 through Hormuz than a VLCC.. money is there

@OilCfd 4.5? You're even worse than me! 😂

@Nevespinho88 less than 2000

@OilCfd And How much had effectively exited hormuz ( especially geom Qatar , bahrein iraq Kuwait )

@CRUDEOIL231 I guess we can make it with some suez and afras... 4.5 tops

@OilCfd Ex-Saudi, it’s going to drop even further until the end of the month. Since no ballast tankers available, they can’t even push oil out to sea.

@gemoscatelli grains and soft will be interesting... saw Saudis buying directly FOB in Latam.

@OilCfd Me watching crude oil and VLCC market arbitrages as a C&F grains/oilseeds trader:

Dubai physical premium (aka Murban/Oman) is $52/bbl.

@gemoscatelli I saw 2 VLCCs fixed to china since yesterday. It will be an SPR transfer to China

@OilCfd At these spreads and dropping VLCC freight in the Atlantic are Asian buyers alreading switching to the USG to load WTI subsidized by the US Treasury?

@RusOilGasExpert And it is still cheap... grab them while you can

@OilCfd After 4 years of enduring deep discounts, it should come as no surprise that Russian exporters will extract the full market value of their oil and refined products in a seller's market.

No more cheap diesel from Vlad. Russian diesel went from NYH ULSD -10 cpg to +5 delivered. USGC is +15.

@natty_ary07 This

@OilCfd What is the largest diff on that spread we have seen before?

So many bad takes around this...

@ALikhodedov @VKMacro No. Dubai Platts window trades 2 months ahead, (exactly for that transit delta). May delivered barrels FOB middle east. Now, liquidity for that benchmark went from 4Mnbd to just 2. Someone was short.

@OilCfd @VKMacro May barrels - you mean Brent, I assume? I would also add distance (Hound point to Singapore or Korea is 40-48 days) and crude quality difference. What is the bug in Dubai design though?

@ALikhodedov @JuneGoh_Sparta It's the physical premium.. "FOB price" over benchmark... June, this will be an afra cargo, econs works better than V

@JuneGoh_Sparta Is it the breakeven FOB price given cracks/freight etc?

Why did a Thai refiner buy Forties crude last Friday? Oh, because of this.... #oott

@VKMacro is a bug on the design of the Dubai benchmark. We are trading MAY barrels, not prompt.

@OilCfd Isn’t this mostly a case of most of the Dubai basket not being available on the market?