Timo Riske

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Timo Riske

Timo Riske

@PFF_Moo

Mathematician, Data science @PFF. A simple mind thinks everything that didn't happen couldn't have happened. Tweets/opinions are my own.

Germany Katılım Ocak 2017
115 Takip Edilen34K Takipçiler
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Timo Riske
Timo Riske@PFF_Moo·
Lots of analytical draft analysis comes with a lot of uncertainty due to small sample sizes and the league changing over time. Hence I thought of a method to compute the value of draft picks intrinsically. Here it is: pff.com/news/draft-202…
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Timo Riske
Timo Riske@PFF_Moo·
@reinhardNFL Yeah in the grand scheme of things it's an absolute nothingburger and I even think we would see it applied more often to really low trade values than to really high trade values
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Timo Riske
Timo Riske@PFF_Moo·
Also there is almost no downside to saying "he turned down more money", because the parties involved who could confirm or refute have very little incentive to do that.
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Timo Riske
Timo Riske@PFF_Moo·
That doesn't necessarily mean that Licht is deliberately using a flawed interpretation of "more money" here, there is obviously a lot of shared history between him and Evans. I don't have dog in this fight at all, I just think you can generally not really trust these kind of stories we hear every year.
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Timo Riske
Timo Riske@PFF_Moo·
@geblauweiss Die Antwort auf die Frage ist im wesentlichen der Neo-Liberalismus und die Desinformation, dass Neo-Liberalismus cool wäre. Problem ist, dass nicht nur die Grünen auch teilweise neo-liberal sind, sondern die SPD noch viel mehr (alles rechts davon natürlich zu 100%)
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𝙂𝙚𝙣𝙤𝙨𝙨𝙚 𝘽𝙡𝙖𝙪-𝙒𝙚𝙞ß
𝙂𝙚𝙣𝙤𝙨𝙨𝙚 𝘽𝙡𝙖𝙪-𝙒𝙚𝙞ß@geblauweiss·
Man sollte sich vielleicht Mal fragen, warum diese Menschen die AfD wählen. Das sind oft einfache Arbeiter, die ökonomisch angehängt sind und Angst vor einem sozialen Abstieg in Krisenzeiten haben. Die gewinnen wir nicht zurück, wenn wir denen kollektiv sagen, dass sie dumm sind
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Timo Riske
Timo Riske@PFF_Moo·
yeah if defensive regression hits hard, they are kinda cooked, I agree with that. I just have a lot of trust in Flores. Also still think KOC is a good coach and good offensive guy, Kyler should be able to lead at least an average offense with him and together with an above average defense, I think it's an above average team. Obviously their division is pretty tough, so that doesn't guaranteed 9 wins if they go like 2-4 in the division.
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spydermike72
spydermike72@rssbbq·
@PFF_Moo Genuinely curious why you think the Vikings are better ? They lost a lot on Defense and have not replaced them. And Kyler ??? I see a big regression even from this past year.
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Timo Riske
Timo Riske@PFF_Moo·
I mean Patrick Mahomes was just representative for all the hurdles in the way of the Broncos (because he is probably the single most impactful individual for that matter). I never claimed that that a 150 character tweet conveyed all my ideas in a perfect way, but I also haven't see any reply worth replying to with more precise thoughts before yours.
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CL@hellofootball11·
Thanks for the response and I’m genuinely not trying to be rude, but “The Broncos aren’t as good as their record says and this may not be the right time to make a big move” is an entirely different statement/point than what you originally expressed, that the Broncos should maybe not make a big move because Mahomes and Herbert are still in the division.
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Timo Riske
Timo Riske@PFF_Moo·
From the Broncos perspective, I kind of get it, but that's a lot of chips on the table given that you're still in the same division as Patrick Lavon Mahomes the second
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Timo Riske
Timo Riske@PFF_Moo·
The Broncos played 11p at a top 10 rate and when they played 11p they faced two-high at a top 10 rate. It's not that the Broncos' opponents keyed on the run in a crazy way or anything. Waddle's value will be that he can just contribute more, obviously. He won't change the box or coverage math in a crazy way, I think.
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Dustin Scott Royer 🎦
Dustin Scott Royer 🎦@All22_FF·
@PFF_Moo I think he's pointing too the idea that he will create space and he needs to be respected a lot more than washed Evan Engram, Marvin Mims (who I love 🫠) and Lil Jordan Humphries.
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Timo Riske
Timo Riske@PFF_Moo·
Still do not think that's really the case (there was a similar take when the Texans got Diggs). Individual WRs will hardly manipulate the box counts. Broncos were already fairly 11p-heavy. Beyond that, no DC is going to say "f*ck these run fits" just because Waddle lines up instead of who lined up last year.
Daniel Jeremiah@MoveTheSticks

The Broncos roster doesn't have many obvious holes. They were going to have a hard time finding immediate impact with pick 30 in this draft joining their current roster. This is a needle mover player for them. Waddle will impact box counts and create space for everyone.

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Timo Riske
Timo Riske@PFF_Moo·
ok, I'll answer representatively here: you're like the 200th person to fight the straw man that i said they shouldn't try to get better, which I obviously didn't (which is insane, what happened to reading comprehension). I just said that they put a lot of chips on the table to get better, which might or might not backfire. I'm just not sure whether they are in the same position as the Rams, where such an aggressive move makes obvious sense. The Rams window is obviously short and they were already the best team last year so it makes sense to make a move which keeps it that way. The Broncos - sorry to burst y'all's bubble - were most definitely not the best team last year, not even in the AFC. They closed the gap to the top teams and took advantage of those teams having bad years and then eventually ran out of luck in the playoffs. That was bad luck for sure. So that's a difference to the Rams. As far as the window goes, the Broncos window shouldn't be as short. If Nix is even halfway capable of going to the SB with that team, the Broncos will extend him with a backloaded contract anyway, so that extends the window by another 3 years. No reason to put all the chips on the table right now in that case. If Nix is not capable of doing that, what are we even doing here, then nothing matters. Nevertheless, I even said I kinda get it, lol. Waddle is a very good player, obviously, and he fits what the Broncos did with Nix. It's fine. I've had much stronger takes about trades in the past, so I don't really get what the fuck is wrong with people to be so upset here.
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CL@hellofootball11·
@PFF_Moo So the Broncos shouldn’t try to get better because they have good teams/QBs in their division? I’m not understanding.
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Timo Riske
Timo Riske@PFF_Moo·
@halfblackmcvay he would need cash in on the full contract for that. You only get a comp pick when the player is released into FA after the full contract
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Billy Flowers
Billy Flowers@halfblackmcvay·
@PFF_Moo Is there anything to be said about buying a future compensatory pick for when he leaves?
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Timo Riske
Timo Riske@PFF_Moo·
So you sign a upside QB in free agency who failed at first in the NFL, but then was good in a small sample on a competent team and then you trade away your best offensive player (minus Achane, maybe). What's the overarching plan here?
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Timo Riske
Timo Riske@PFF_Moo·
@polyminnow to be fair we shouldn't go by h2h, because look how enormously overwhelmed the Panthers offense was against the Seahawks compared to the Rams shredding them twice if we want to go that route but the general point stands
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shangtr0n 🟦
shangtr0n 🟦@polyminnow·
@PFF_Moo i mean, look at that enormous gap between the Rams and Panthers. those two teams played twice, both after Thanksgiving, and the results come nowhere close to justifying that gap. and which team do we think has improved more since then?
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Timo Riske
Timo Riske@PFF_Moo·
Used current betting regular season win totals for all NFL teams to figure out how the market is currently looking at teams. Is this the year of the Joe Burrow?
Timo Riske tweet media
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shangtr0n 🟦
shangtr0n 🟦@polyminnow·
@PFF_Moo i know they face a 1st place schedule now and weren't particularly good last year, but am i crazy for thinking the public is really selling Carolina short here, especially after what they just added in FA (and Canales handing over playcalling)? seems like a team on the rise.
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Timo Riske
Timo Riske@PFF_Moo·
a move for a very good WR can be a sign of less heavy personnel to come, but the Broncos already used 12p at only the 27th highest rate in the NFL, so i can't really expect a shift of philosophy
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Timo Riske
Timo Riske@PFF_Moo·
not saying he can't be a needle mover with his individual impact, but that box count stuff is going a bit far for a team that was already a lot of spread last year.
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