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Soil moisture remains historically low as planting approaches. Here's how the drought in cotton country stacks up. profarmer.com/cotton-country…

Uncertainty returned to commodity markets on Sunday night and soybeans aren't happy with the latest US-China news. Not only may Trump delay his meeting w/ Xi, but the mention of China eyeing "non-soybean row crops" dampens hopes it will buy an extra 8 mmt of US beans this year.

The #wheat / crude ratio is at its lowest level in years. Typically, this doesn’t last long. If you believe in an ag rally, wheat could be one of the best bets - and potentially one of the strongest performers across commodities from here. There are several considerations supporting this view. The key one: wheat likely has the most inelastic demand among major commodities. Am I right? #wheat #commodities #sizovreport #oatt #oott

#Fertilizer availability and price will remain a concern so long as vessels cannot safely pass through the #StraitOfHormuz and get to their destinations around the 🌎. 🇺🇸 Fertilizer prices had softened from record highs in 2022 but were forecast to be higher in 2026. Here's a look at U.S. average #fertilizer costs by crop 🌽🌱🌾👇👇 @FarmBureau

Arctic cold is likely to do damage to the winter #wheat crop in the next 2 - 3 days. March freezes tend to do damage in great high-yield years, but a good spring beyond this point can still yield a good crop via the secondary and tertiary tiller development. #oatt

Managed Money hedge fund traders added RECORD long bets in Corn last week (+87k contracts). 🌽📈 Funds are running the math on what $100 Crude Oil means for Grain and Oilseed prices. 🛢️ Speculators are betting higher energy prices will push Grain prices higher in the months ahead via stronger biofuel economics, rising input costs, and uncertain global trade flows. 💰🚜🌾

🌽HOLY. CORN. BUYING. Money managers in the week ended March 10 bought more than 140,000 CBOT corn futures & options contracts (the fourth most for any week on record). The resulting net long - 193,271 contracts - isn't even halfway to the all-time record (429k in 2010).

When has money managers' weekly net buying in CBOT corn futures & options been stronger? 1⃣ 166,189 contracts (May 21, 2019) 2⃣ 165,128 (June 30, 2015) 3⃣ 147,679 (July 11, 2017) 4⃣ 140,297 (March 10, 2026) All of the top 3 flipped funds to a bullish stance from a bearish one.

World corn stocks come in above expectations on larger crops in Brazil and Ukraine. Slight downward adjustment in wheat stocks and minimal movement in soybeans. Chinese soy/corn/wheat demand assumptions were unchanged.

USDA leaves U.S. ending stocks unchanged from last month's forecast.

Third largest weekly export inspections of the marketing year for corn, following the second largest last week. The world can’t get enough U.S. corn.

🇧🇷Second corn was 45% planted in Parana, Brazil as of Monday, well behind the year-ago pace of 64%. It reads above the five-year average for the date, but the five-year includes the dreadfully slow 2021 & 2023 campaigns.

🇺🇸Last week's U.S. corn and soybean export inspections topped all estimates. 65% of the inspected bean volume was to China.

📈Funds bought a massive amount of CBOT wheat in the week ended Feb. 24. Net buying neared 51,000 futures & options contracts, the third most for any week on record. Funds were net short 17.3k contracts as of Feb. 24, but futures are up another 3% since.

All trade estimates for USDA's supply & demand report due Tuesday at 11 am CT. On average, analysts don't expect major changes to U.S. and world stocks, though Brazil's corn and soybean crops could increase. U.S. demand will also be in focus, esp. w/ recent China developments.

Hot and dry, yes a heatwave in Argentina, looks to trim their USDA estimated crop production back a bit. The USDA has their estimate for their coming corn crop at 53 mmt, with soybeans estimated at 48.5 mmt. We have been talking about this coming drought for a few months now.

Buenos Aires Grain Exchange this week reported Argentina's #wheat harvest reaching 100% complete. Their final estimate is a record 27.8 MMT, slightly above Rosario's 27.7 MMT and USDA's upwardly-revised 27.5 MMT, driven by record yields for all regions. #oatt

Argentina's Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reporting declining crop conditions due to increased moisture stress in it's Jan. 15 weekly crop report...

SHORTEST in 16 Months! 🌾 Hedge funds have big bearish bets across Grains, Oilseeds, and Softs #agriculture markets today. This means lots of buying firepower if there are any South American #production threats or bullish #macro catalysts in the coming weeks. ☀️📈

🌽2025 U.S. corn yield comes in at a record 186.5 bu/acre. Iowa and Illinois didn't do as well as previously expected, but plenty of other states, particularly Minnesota and North Dakota, notched very strong results.