Ryan
32.3K posts
Ryan
@Section31ops
My day job keeps my mind on my money and my money on my mind. Compare my predictions to your furu. Not advice.
Katılım Aralık 2010
972 Takip Edilen1.8K Takipçiler
RAOUL PAL JUST DROPPED THE MOST INSANE PREDICTION OF 2026. 🚨
$3 trillion to $100 trillion
Same cycle as 2017.
Peak by June.
Everyone is watching the wrong signal.
It's not the halving. It's not the bill.
It's the cycle.
And Raoul Pal says we're in it right now.
AI money flowing in.
ETF billions piling up.
Global liquidity expanding.
Regulatory clarity arriving.
$100 trillion isn't a prediction anymore.
It's a roadmap.
June 2026.
Circle it.
The man who called the last cycle…
Just told you exactly when this one peaks.
Are you positioned?
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In two months, we’re moving to Columbus, Ohio. We just bought our first house there.
Texas heat and year-round allergies pushed us to move north. After a long process of filtering options and traveling across different states, we decided to choose Ohio.
I see a lot of business opportunities there in general, and strong potential to expand my appliance repair business specifically. We plan to launch appliance repair services in 3 metro areas this year.
As a bonus, it’s new construction, so I’ll get exposure to many different home service industries from the customer side, and I’m excited about that.
It’s my 4th year in the U.S., and my 3rd year running a business that made this possible. A country of opportunities, for sure.
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Too early for $SPY, but a bear break out so far
Ryan@Section31ops
$SPY - Happy Quad witching to those who celebrate. What jumps out most is how concentrated the downside flow risk is below here on an OPEX session. Normally you might expect more balanced pinning around the main strike, (660 is clear pivot) but its a much cleaner split at 660. Today might feel calm near 660, but if the market loses the lower shelf, the move could become much more one-sided than a typical expiration day.
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$SPY - Happy Quad witching to those who celebrate. What jumps out most is how concentrated the downside flow risk is below here on an OPEX session. Normally you might expect more balanced pinning around the main strike, (660 is clear pivot) but its a much cleaner split at 660. Today might feel calm near 660, but if the market loses the lower shelf, the move could become much more one-sided than a typical expiration day.
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The Hottest Reservation In The Country This Winter Appears To Be At A Place Called The Cleveland Schvitz, Where You Sweat In A Sauna, Take A Cold Plunge, Get A Massage, Then Eat Giant T-Bone Steaks That All Looks Incredible s.barstool.link/c/article-3565…
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🚨 Let me tell you why this Goldman Sachs headline is the most dangerous one you'll read today..
Companies spent $450 billion on AI last year.. fired tens of thousands of people to "restructure around AI".. replaced entire departments with chatbots..
And Goldman Sachs just said it contributed basically zero to economic growth..
so where did the money go?
> It went to Nvidia.. $130 billion in GPU sales.. Jensen is the only man on earth who got rich from AI that hasn't produced anything yet..
> It went to stock buybacks.. companies fired people, cut costs, reported "record profits" and bought back their own shares.. the money went UP not OUT.. Jesus!
> It went to a bubble.. the same way crypto money went to Lamborghinis and not infrastructure.. AI money is going to valuations and not productivity..
here's the part that should terrify you..
They already fired the people.. Atlassian 1,600.. Meta 21,000.. Block 40%.. Amazon warehouses.. the jobs are already gone..
But the growth didn't come.. the productivity didn't come.. the revenue didn't come..
they burned the village to build a city that doesn't exist yet..
and Goldman Sachs just looked at the empty lot and said "there's nothing here"
unusual_whales@unusual_whales
"Massive investment in AI contributed basically zero to US economic growth last year," per Goldman Sachs
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The bond market is sending a bigger message than “rates are up.” Investors are demanding more pay to hold long-term bonds again. That means the reason yields are high is changing. The middle of the curve is still under more pressure than the very long end, while inflation expectations look contained and are expected to cool over time.
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@AdamSchefter I don't trust Andrew Barry to pick a deli sandwich, let alone trade 5 years of picks.
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More about the Cleveland Browns proposing a rule change that would allow NFL teams to trade draft picks five years into the future instead of three.
espn.com/nfl/story/_/id…
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@dapstats @perthknuckleboo @Celiwaves @MotherCabriniNY @Sorenthek @CordovaTrades @eewspeedy @AlexanderSzews @VolumeDynamics @KimGits1 @bbm010 @Danstringer74 @David_Tracey @JG_Nuke my mastiff is doing her part to produce natural fertilizer 3 shifts a day.
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@perthknuckleboo @Section31ops @Celiwaves @MotherCabriniNY @Sorenthek @CordovaTrades @eewspeedy @AlexanderSzews @VolumeDynamics @KimGits1 @bbm010 @Danstringer74 @David_Tracey @JG_Nuke /94c Inorganic chemistry reminder: production nitrogen for fertilizer usually comes from air combined with hydrogen from natural gas. This generates ammonia which can then be used in fertilizer production.
#natty
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Update with $spy alternate count.
Fed lowering #FFR could lead to blow-off top.
In this scenario, W3 completes at ~$680 then drops to ~$560 before blow-off top.
ht @perthknuckleboo @Celiwaves @MotherCabriniNY @Sorenthek @CordovaTrades @eewspeedy @AlexanderSzews @Section31ops
Waving at Stranded Ships@dapstats
Since April, $spy has formed a 9-waver up with a channel forming on log-scale beginning in May -- gone parabolic. Ends badly. No idea when. ht @perthknuckleboo @Celiwaves @CordovaTrades @MotherCabriniNY @Sorenthek @eewspeedy @Section31ops @AlexanderSzews @jimduey
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Looking at SOFRs, its clear the market has repeatedly been wrong about cuts, they went for rapid, intense rate cuts and they are backing off that now. This shows persistent overpricing of easing cycles. it's also clear policy uncertainty remains high. The dispersion between contracts indicates no one knows about timing vs terminal rate and front end volatility dominating. we shifted to “higher for longer” reasserting itself. What does that mean? well, there is pricing instability across the curve, and that will affect swap pricing, funding curves, and margin requirements. more important, risk systems (VaR shocks increase when front-end gaps, like 2008). there is thin liquidity in deferred contracts, that impacts execution and hedging. you can expect higher volatility in short rate products which can affect equities.
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ROC ane absolute levels aren't the same
John@market_sleuth
I traded through every one of these & Jason is correct. 💯
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These podcast wars are embarrassing.
Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, Mark Levin, Ben Shapiro, Candace Owens...
What are we, toxic mean girls in high school?
These vulgar ad hominems being hurled back and forth by leaders of the conservative movement…I still have absolutely no idea what they're talking about.
They never mention the substance on which they disagree.
We in the conservative movement—especially in the media—are supposed to be thought leaders.
And when you’re a thought leader, you are supposed to persuade people about why your position is best.
That's your job.
That's my job.
We are supposed to challenge and dismantle ideas that are bad, dangerous, and wrong.
But is that what we're doing?
No, that's not what we're seeing here.
The biggest voices on the Right are acting like a nasty episode of Real Housewives.
What’s next?
Pulling hair extensions and scratching?
This is not the highest and best use of our platforms, voices, and this influence that we have been afforded.
The midterms are around the corner and the only group being helped by these petty, superficial, juvenile spats are the Democrats.
We are facing an ACTUAL crisis in our nation that everyone is ignoring because they're addicted to drama. We have ONE CHANCE at mass deportations. ONE CHANCE. And we're squandering it because the leaders of the movement would rather… beef?
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