sigma^2
3.3K posts

sigma^2
@SigmaSquared_
Most of the time, we are punished if we go against the trend. Only at inflection points are we rewarded.
Katılım Mayıs 2023
496 Takip Edilen9.9K Takipçiler

In the end the tech will just get integrated into tradfi without any crypto token benefiting, as is already happening with stablecoins, RWA, and 24/7 equities trading.
The world is PvP, and the big tradfi powers are not simply going to let others eat their lunch.
THE SHORT BEAR@TheShortBear
Hyperliquid now trades more oil, gold, and silver than crypto. People will eventually start to realize crypto isn’t about crypto but about offering a more realistic and efficient infrastructure for any type of exchange. That goes from proof, reputation and alike to trading, real world assets and more. Hyperliquid is killing it. Look at that chart, green in a see of red.
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RIP silvXBT you’re gonna be missed
ً@SilvXBT
4 chinese guys just followed me into this hotel if I don't tweet tomorrow cz boomed me✌️
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A blockchain called Hyperliquid saw daily trading volume for a popular oil contract reach a high of nearly $1.7 billion, which is nearly 250 times more volume than the contract saw right before the U.S. and Israel started bombing Iran in late February. bit.ly/4saNe2J
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@SigmaSquared_ Snapshot for the monthly yield was at yesterday's close
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@willoptions @Crypto_Noddy There’s a non zero chance that Iran continues blocking the Strait of Hormuz even after US withdrawal
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Some thoughts from a completely unqualified mind:
- US & Israel both confirmed they don't think a regime change is likely
- Iranian ambassador to the UN has said they don't plan to block or mine the Strait (h/t @Crypto_Noddy)
- Bessent & Trump both say they don't think the mining has happened, as in - even if it did, nobody's accusing anybody of it, and nobody will be held accountable if there's a path of least resistance.
Something to consider - when the US & Israel struck nuclear sites last year, bombed apartment buildings and took out nuke scientists/engineers - Iran postured for revenge but in reality, pre-signaled their attacks to save face and ultimately, de-escalated.
Maybe this has changed with a new, younger Ayatollah - but they are not operating from a position of strength or stamina - Moreso, what creates the largest market reaction. What if the market stops reacting? Oil moves, equity moves are blunted just a week into this.
To me, this 'excursion' feels like it's a singular tweet/truth away from completely unwinding to the upside -- I'm not convinced Iran wants to carry this out to the death of their recently elected leader, and I think Trump welcomes a somewhat cordial exit he can sell to his base.
Until that happens it's anybody's guess - but Trump is under a lot of pressure to quickly exit, he's already narrowed the scope of the operation and has complete authority to say "ok, we've achieved what we wanted to, it's a good time to buy stocks and short oil, let's focus on midterms with now 9 wars ended"
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Imagine holding BTC for years and making billions, only to rotate most of it into ETH at the top of ETH/BTC, get liquidated for hundreds of millions after doubling down on a losing trade, and then lose another $50M in seconds by clicking the wrong buttons on your phone.
Whenever you think you made a retarded trade, remember there’s always some Chinese billionaire making the exact same mistake just 100000000000× bigger.
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