Simon Brown

Our first @SBGTraderZA Power Hour of 2026 Keep More of Your Money: Tax-Free Investing & The ETF Revolution justonelap.com/video-keep-mor…

The internet made investing accessible to everyone, but it also made scams easier than ever. Join @SimonPB and @1nvest_SA 's Lungile Macuacua & Karabo Shole on Tuesday 24 March at 11am as we unpack the red flags every investor needs to know. Free. Online. Register 👉 justonelap.com/events/protect…

‘Gold doesn’t go up or down’ Hlelo Giyose from First Avenue Investment Management explains the yellow metal’s constancy compared to every other investment asset. Great chat with Hlelo this morning as he commented on how everybody looks at gold wrong .. moneyweb.co.za/moneyweb-podca…

So I asked @claudeai for a trade recommendation on Sibanye Stillwater. All I gave it was the chart as below, 5 year weekly. Thoughts? Better then I would have thought ====== JSE:SSW — Technical Analysis & Trade Recommendations Bottom line: SSW is in a sharp correction after a massive rally, now testing a critical support zone. The setup favours patient buying on weakness rather than chasing. Chart Structure The 5-year weekly chart tells a clear story in three phases: Phase 1 — Peak to trough (early 2022 to mid-2024): SSW declined from ~R80 to ~R15, a brutal 80%+ drawdown driven by collapsing PGM prices, operational issues, and write-downs on US operations. The R15 area marked a definitive capitulation low. Phase 2 — Recovery rally (mid-2024 to Jan 2026): The stock rallied from ~R15 to ~R85, a 460% move. This was driven by recovering PGM prices, operational improvement (HEPS up 281%, EBITDA up 189%), and renewed dividends. The rally was steep and largely uninterrupted — classic commodity-cycle recovery behaviour. Phase 3 — Current correction (Jan 2026 to now): SSW has pulled back sharply from ~R85 to R46, a ~46% decline in roughly two months. The current R46 level sits near the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the entire rally from R15 to R85. Key Technical Levels Support zone: R40–46 — This is the 50% retracement area and aligns with the mid-2025 consolidation zone. This is the level to watch. A weekly close below R40 would be bearish and open a move toward R30–32 (the 61.8% retracement). Resistance: R55–60 — Prior support that broke, now overhead resistance. A reclaim of R60 on a weekly close would confirm the correction is over. Major resistance: R80–85 — The recent high and the 2021/2022 peak zone. This is where the stock ran out of steam twice. Fundamental Context The correction looks disproportionate to the fundamentals. The 2025 results were strong (HEPS up 281%, dividend of 131c), SA PGM operations are hitting guidance consistently, and analyst consensus targets average R83 with a range of R65–R103. The selloff appears driven by broader PGM price volatility and profit-taking after a very steep rally, not a deterioration in the business. Platinum remains in structural deficit with BofA forecasting $2,450/oz for 2026. Palladium is more mixed with potential surplus, but the US Commerce Department backing Sibanye's call for tariffs on Russian palladium is a potential catalyst. Trade Recommendations Scenario 1 — Accumulate on this pullback (preferred):Buy a starter position in the R44–48 zone (current area). Add on any dip toward R38–42. Stop loss on a weekly close below R37 (below the 61.8% retracement). Target R65–70 initially, R80+ if PGM prices cooperate. Risk/reward is roughly 1:3. Scenario 2 — Wait for confirmation:If you want less risk, wait for a weekly close back above R55, confirming the correction has ended. This sacrifices some upside but avoids catching a falling knife. Target remains R75–85. Scenario 3 — Avoid if R40 breaks:A sustained weekly close below R40 changes the technical picture materially. It would suggest the rally was a bear market bounce rather than a new bull trend, and the next support would be R28–32. No trade unless that level holds. Risk Factors PGM prices remain the dominant driver — if palladium surplus widens or platinum loses its deficit narrative, SSW will struggle regardless of operational performance. Rand strength would also compress ZAR-denominated earnings. The US operations (Stillwater mine) remain a drag and a source of potential further write-downs. Not financial advice — I am not a financial advisor. This is technical and fundamental analysis for informational purposes.

On the show this morning; Can AI assist with investing? Matete Thulare of Investec on the rand, which has been holding on fairly well. But, is the collapse still to come? Hlelo Giyose of First Avenue Investment Management weighs in on gold, how it’s priced, and the stock-to-flow ratio impact on commodity prices. And, my thoughts on using AI to help with investing. moneyweb.co.za/moneyweb-podca…

[POLL] @SimonPB chats about using AI as a tool in the investment process – the good and the bad. Are you using AI to assist in your investing? Livestream the #podcast: bit.ly/3fj3DO5

@ant_omis don't know. But if you've wanted gold, it's cheaper then pretty much any stage of the year so far.

@SimonPB Is this a buy the dip moment?

Gold weekly chart taking pain

Worldwide Markets with @SimonPB sponsored @ShyftGlobal @SBGTraderZA War, Fuel & Fertilizer: The Inflation Pipeline ⛽ Fuel Price Pain Coming 🌍 Emerging Market Defaults 🌱 Fertilizer & Food Prices 🛒 Mr. Price Update 💻 SaaS Check-in 🏦 Fed Chair Watch 🧺 UK CPI Basket Changes justonelap.com/podcast-war-fu…

MoneywebNOW this morning Kea Nonyana from PrimeXBT unpacks the latest from PPC,dives into iOCO’s results, and breaks down what the Fed’s dot plot signals for markets. Dr Roelof Botha shares insights from the Q4 2025 Afrimat Construction Index, highlighting key trends shaping the sector. Wiehahn Koch from Capitec explores the advantages of smart lending – and why the traditional lending model is under pressure. moneyweb.co.za/moneyweb-podca…

Your ETF is Changing, and That’s a Good Thing Friday is the quarterly index rebalancing which means for many ETFs the stocks they hold will be changing. justonelap.com/your-etf-is-ch…

Worldwide Markets with @SimonPB sponsored @ShyftGlobal @SBGTraderZA War, Fuel & Fertilizer: The Inflation Pipeline ⛽ Fuel Price Pain Coming 🌍 Emerging Market Defaults 🌱 Fertilizer & Food Prices 🛒 Mr. Price Update 💻 SaaS Check-in 🏦 Fed Chair Watch 🧺 UK CPI Basket Changes justonelap.com/podcast-war-fu…

[POLL] @SimonPB is chatting with Kea Nonyana from PrimeXBT about the Fed keeping rates unchanged last night, as the dot plot shows only one rate cut late this year. How long are central banks going to keep rates unchanged? Livestream the #podcast: bit.ly/3fj3DO5

@Chapter11Wealth @om I think they rushing for the 'before something happens' .. because if things get real bad then IPOs are off the table

@SimonPB @om Would I be wrong in thinking that if things go pear shaped economically (Oil, Iran, Recession) that these companies or at least some of them dont IPO this yr? Or is now the time to raise the cash before 'something happens'

wild stat from @om newsletter "The IPO is not about one company. Instead it is about three American AI companies — Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX, which owns xAI. It is about the scale of money to be raised from the market. It is also the urgency to do so. The Economist notes that if all three offer 15 percent of their shares, the combined sum would roughly equal every dollar raised across all American IPOs over the past decade."

Local Jan inflation comes in at 3.0%, bang on target. But war :( So no rate cut expected at the MPC meeting next Thursday.

Almost three weeks into the Iranian war, what’s the impact on global equity markets? @AnchorCapitalZA Reko Nare unpacks the pressure points, with emerging markets taking more pain than developed peers. Tian Pan from Prescient China outlines the investment case for China – and what sets their new PANDA actively managed ETF apart. Plus, Johan Marnewick of STANLIB Asset Management joins us as the Khanyisa Energy Transition Fund reaches a first close of R5 billion. moneyweb.co.za/moneyweb-podca…

Today on MoneywebNow: Analysis of the investment case for China and the war's toll on global equity markets. Download podcast: moneyweb.co.za/moneyweb-podca…

Worldwide Markets with @SimonPB sponsored @ShyftGlobal @SBGTraderZA War, Fuel & Fertilizer: The Inflation Pipeline ⛽ Fuel Price Pain Coming 🌍 Emerging Market Defaults 🌱 Fertilizer & Food Prices 🛒 Mr. Price Update 💻 SaaS Check-in 🏦 Fed Chair Watch 🧺 UK CPI Basket Changes justonelap.com/podcast-war-fu…

AI in banking. Billions spent, mostly on hold music Have you used a chat bot to try and resolve an issue? did it work? justonelap.com/ai-in-banking-…

The JSE now has an active China ETF from @Prescient_SA and it’s called PANDA All the details 👉 justonelap.com/the-jse-now-ha…

[POLL] @SimonPB is chatting with Tian Pan from Prescient China on why China remains an important investment destination despite global uncertainty. Are you investing into China? Livestream the #podcast: bit.ly/3fj3DO5