Stephen Koukoulas

My 2026 forecasts: GDP H1 lifts to 2.5%; sub 2.0% in H2 Unemployment rate to 5% Inflation eases 2.0 to 2.25% Wages growth soggy at 3% RBA cuts to 3.10% 10 yr bonds 4.00% AUD lifts to 75 c House prices – no change, downside risks ASX200 – below 8,000 youtube.com/watch?v=u6007K…

Pro tip: Get set for unfolding discussion about the yield curve in Australia

@Scutty 3s 10s - still OK guide...

@TheKouk What curve are you watching?

I'm waiting for the Australian yield curve to invert before calling a recession...

ASX200 now down 7.7% from its recent peak... It's not everything, but it is saying something about the economy. Throw in weaker house price growth; 10 year bond yields above 5.0% and a peak cash rate around 4.65%, and there are some crappy issues ahead.

@F1del14 Whoops - I wonder how often you do that?

@TheKouk Fair enough then. Havent watched video. Important to point out all contributing factors.

The labour force data were not consistent with the fevered RBA rate hikes in recent months – full time employment down 30,000; part time up 79,000; overall hours worked down in the month. Unemployment rate back up to 4.3% just 0.2 ppts below the cyclical peak & the way the economy is rolling out, it is obvious that the unemployment rate will be significantly higher in the months ahead. For the RBA, the tight labour market remains elusive, despite its rhetoric & unbalanced research which finds the opposite. youtube.com/watch?v=rBdBBW…

@F1del14 Um - mentioned at 42 seconds and in the text...

@TheKouk Oh you forgot about the rise in participation rate. Which you know, does affect the unemployment rate.

I was lucky enough to attend the Australian Business Economists lunch where the Treasurer Jim Chalmers presented a framework for the policy settings that will be presented in the budget on 12 May. He noted, quite rightly, that there were still several moving parts that would be influenced by unfolding developments in the oil market and the Middle East, but suffice to say I came away with a degree of optimism. Key points: Tax changes that will improve the efficiency of the tax system and, with some spending restraint, narrow the budget deficit. There will be changes that will structurally improve productivity. Treasurer Chalmers is alert to the competing claims on the budget with perhaps the most telling comment being along the lines, "that not everyone will be happy with the budget" meaning that some folk may well be out of pocket as they help with the big picture macro management of the economy. youtube.com/watch?v=MJMp5L…

Life goes on! A picture of my rising 2 year old filly going through her paces with the quite amazing horse whisperer Shane Rose at Bimbadeen Park (I only have a share - I'm not quite in the league to buy 100% of a horse of this class). She's by Snitzel - which is hugely exciting. She doesn't have a name yet but look how gorgeous she is! Shout out to @Dynamic_WONIT, Adam & Dean.

Wilcox. #auspol #SteadyTheShip

Would you let a friend hike rates if they've had too much Kool Aid to drink? ICYMI

Markets love making money on central bank errors - bonds rallying hard.

And it won't boost inflation when prices fall back to pre-war levels. The RBA did not cut on the back of the temporary electricity rebates, but has hiked in response to the temporary oil price shock. Go figure

It is important to know who voted for the hike, who against. The consequences of policy errors are too great for this to be secret.

RBA hikes; vote was 5-4 in favour. RBA reckons labour market is tight despite facts to the contrary. RBA hikes - no surprises, but the economy is set to buckle under the weight of oppressive monetary policy. youtube.com/watch?v=YPNQsd…

Amazing that some people don't know that Australia imports stuff it doesn't produce; exports stuff that it has plenty of to people who want it. This will never change - nor should it

This is a huge worry for the economy. When consumers are glum and scared, they stop spending

Horrendous consumer sentiment - looks like household spending growth has stalled in 2026 after a promising rise through 2025

Bloody Albo!

It's happening again: Those who demand smaller govt & wish for the 'govt to get out of my life' are now screaming loudest that the govt should do something about petrol. Hypocrisy in extremis