Trading Time Machine

Overnight Returns. Yes, it's all of them. $SPY

open.substack.com/pub/backtest/p… $NVDA $AMZN $QQQ $TSLA

The remarkable thing about Kagan isn’t that he sees instability. Anyone can see instability. It’s that after helping legitimize decades of interventionist hubris, the diagnosis is still that the real problem is insufficient American primacy. Some worldviews are apparently incapable of learning.

🇺🇸🇮🇷 When the man Dick Cheney called for a pep talk says America has been checkmated, you pay attention. Robert Kagan was an Iraq War architect, is husband to Victoria Nuland, and probably the single most influential neoconservative thinker of the past 30 years. But he just published a piece in The Atlantic arguing the U.S. has suffered a defeat in Iran with no historical precedent, one that "can neither be repaired nor ignored.” He argues Iran controls Hormuz, didn’t collapse under relentless bombing, and will not collapse under a blockade either… And to top it off, the entire world has now seen that a few weeks of war with a second-tier power brought U.S. weapons stockpiles to dangerous lows. The same man who spent decades advocating for exactly the kind of aggressive U.S. military posture in the Middle East that created this confrontation. He offers zero reflection on that, zero moral reckoning, just a cold strategic assessment that the chess board has turned. When someone of Kagan's ideological pedigree says this, it is stunning, whether you agree or not. Source: The Atlantic

@AUsefuIldiot Not the same. Tuscany is a whole different ballgame. The food, the culture, and the people are next level. California, is California.

Hot take: I don't understand the American obsession with Tuscany There are like 10 different places in Italy that are better, and you could easily just go to Napa/Sonoma if you wanna sit in a field in drink wine

Discipline isn't a trait. It's a skill. Most people treat it like something you either have or you don't. Thirty years of watching traders tells me different. The ones who make it are the ones who built systems that account for their own weaknesses. They know they'll want to quit after three losers. So they build rules that force them to keep going. They know they'll get overconfident after a winner. So they build rules that keep size in check. Your system isn't just for the market. It's for the person staring at the screen. #trading $SPY $QQQ

@BarbarianCap I built this out based upon that. Pretty cool! dapper-sprite-403687.netlify.app

if your correlations data viz does not look like this, you are simply not serious enough about correlations

@FurkanGozukara One element being under reported is the strengthening of the Russian position. x.com/thetrading/sta…

Former White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel admits a total strategic failure. He confirms Iran brilliantly weaponized the Strait of Hormuz, rendering US military operations useless. The Trump administration is now desperately begging Gulf allies to save American influence.

I've been working on this war game evolver since the beginning of the conflict. I faced it to the public today. It updates every 6 hours (6am, noon,6pn, midnight EST) with new inputs from global news feeds. iran-sitrep.netlify.app It's also in my site in an iframe (a little more clunky on mobile) tradingtimemachine.com/iran-conflict.… - it has been a very good predictor of the mechanisms that trigger change in this conflict. Check it out.

For those challenging the claims in this post, this is sourced by the WSJ and CENTOM You don’t have to believe them I don’t dictate the facts We’ve posted the claims of ships passing as well and sourced them Who and what you believe is up to you, not me

First full day of the U.S. naval blockade on Iran: - Zero vessels left Iranian ports - Six merchant ships turned back after American warnings - No shots fired, no enforcement needed Meanwhile, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continued normally with over 20 vessels passing through. The blockade is off to a quiet but effective start. Iran blinked first, ships are turning around without a fight. The real test will come in the next few days when Tehran decides whether to push back or keep playing it safe. Source: WSJ

@jules30373 @cb_doge They heavily harped on it being end to end encrypted. It was not. That is deliberate deception, not a nothing to hide issue. Zuck already lied about this in front of Congress before. I honestly thought he learned his lesson. That broken trust changes everything for me.

Just asking for a friend, but does it really matter to most people with nothing to hide, nothing that someone else who doesn’t know you sees, is it that bigger deal? What is it that I need to be so worried about? Should I cancel my air miles account, M&S card, HSBC credit card, my loyalty card at my local bar? Not sure this is applicable to us ordinary folk, or is it?

🚨 WhatsApp’s “end-to-end encrypted” privacy is a total lie. New class-action lawsuit just dropped: Meta secretly let employees, contractors like Accenture, and third parties read, intercept, and store your private messages WITHOUT consent. All while marketing it as “only you and the recipient can read it.” Zuck lied to billions. Your chats were never safe.

It has been a busy couple of weeks preparing for our move to Italy. In the middle of it all I finalized the Bear Hunter app and sales page. Would love brutal feedback - does this page make a compelling case? What am I getting right and what am I missing? $SPY tradingtimemachine.com/bear-hunter.ht…

I know these Major League baseball players make a lot of money to play the game..but man playing in NY tonight at 35 degrees sucks. I used to hate playing in the cold.

@US_proptrader Below the main forecast gauge I'm starting to integrate a backtested volatility condition model.. still tweaking. You may find it useful . tradingtimemachine.com/trading_foreca…

2026-04-07 09:45 EST VIX1D: 18.10, VIX9D: 23.90 (32.04% slope) Signal: BUY SPY (bullish contango) #SPY #VIX #daytrading #premarket

6/ Free and open source on TradingView. Search: TTM Force Imbalance Oscillator or direct link: tradingview.com/script/lOq6vpKo More tools at TradingTimeMachine.com

5/ It includes a live Multi Time-Frame Dashboard — W / D / 1H / 20m / 5m bias all on one table. Right now on TSLA for example: • W: Neutral • D: Bear Bias • 1H: Bull Bias • 20m: Neutral • 5m: Neutral That divergence between D and 1H is worth watching.

1/ Just published a new free indicator on TradingView — TTM Force Imbalance Oscillator Most oscillators tell you direction. This one tells you WHO IS WINNING. tradingview.com/script/lOq6vpKo