Tier4 Research

Here at Tier4 Research, we hope to restore one of those long-forgotten traditions in sell-side research: buy low, sell high.

Note issued today on The Boeing Company. We updated our model(s) to account for the 737 build rates embedded in the new master schedule. There are a few rate increase targets still on the books.

Keeping the spotlight on titanium , we share the updated industry pricing index. The Sept score of 130 is strong, but also the first down month since 2021. Index positives are: titanium ingot, 6'4 ti bar, and aero-grade ti sheet. Negatives are: CP-grade ti sheet/plate, and V2O5.

Tale of the Tape report is back! Responding to +nickel-alloy mkt trends, we looked into key drivers behind volume/price strength. Then, asked 2 splty mills to face off in the ring. One: the pride of Kokomo; The Other: uncomfortable with plurals. In the end, only 1 was "TOP PICK."

Today's note focuses on the incremental nickel-alloy fallout tied to the restructuring at a major aero supplier. The latest industry shock will impact specialty material peers, but more importantly, looks like the 1st ingredient of a spicy headline stew (served in coming months).

At this point, you would normally hear from a few satisfied executives but we cannot - it is completely anonymous for everyone since day. lnkd.in/gexxzFGJ

We can only recommend one thing for those trying to call us or access reports on the web: become a T4 Partner. Get reliable data and timely market info. We usually offer subscription discounts to willing/able survey participants when there are vacancies (open slots right now).

We cannot recall a crazier two-week period covering the titanium market since the party began twenty-three years ago. If you are following this product group and were just thinking to yourself how nice and calm things were. Trust us when we say you may not be paying attention.

We upgraded Carpenter Technology (CRS) to a STRONG BUY recommendation this morning, highlighting one name within our coverage group showing with a clear dissociation between investor sentiment and channel expectations.

The T4 Titanium Pricing Index has been surging as the market absorbs cost pressures and early reallocation of Russian supply, issues likely to be more problematic before the end of summer. Our June reading is factoring in the upward titanium scrap and vanadium price movement.

We issued a positive note on Allegheny Tech (ATI) that focuses on renewed titanium market strength and the aero market share opportunity. ATI looks like one of the big winners of a reallocated Boeing contract with a previous Russian supplier.

We issued the latest Titanium Snapshot this morning. The report focuses on the strength in mill pricing, updated views regarding Boeing/Airbus contracts, and our five-year global demand outlook.

One of those Tier4 Research Updates that you'll want to read... Specialty Materials: Boeing Moves Away From Russian-Based Titanium Supply tier4research.com

Hexcel Corp alert: We upgraded HXL shares to a Strong Buy ahead of the positive catalysts expected to develop in the next few weeks. Estimate change ties into the "must read" Aerospace Market Update Report released earlier this week.

We issued a note on The Boeing Company (BA) today highlighting newly identified risks over the near-term. Today's update includes a negative earnings estimate revision and price target reduction.

Boeing reverberations? 787 production targets reset for CY22, but the 737 outlook is holding (so far...). Upstream suppliers may only have one challenging Q left. Current view on overlapping coverage groups: Titanium (-); Premium Alloys (+); Alum Plate/Sheet (~); Fasteners (-)

We downgraded Hexcel Corporation (HXL) one notch to Outperform with a revised price target of $65/share. The main focus of the report was limited near-term earnings visibility.

A Summer Inflection Point? We initiated coverage on Carpenter Technology (CRS) this morning with a STRONG BUY rating and an aggressive price target of $50/share. Today's report highlights current specialty material market trends and the increasingly favorable aerospace outlook.

The guys at Tier4 Research just love rumors... especially juicy gossip that somehow involves The Boeing Company and/or Jennifer Aniston... simpleflying.com/united-airline…

Tier4 Research downgraded the shares of BA to UNDERPERFORM with $180 target price.