I closed my ES short position at Sunday's open yesterday near 6500 for over 500 handles profit .
Hours after that, Trump confirmed my read about the situation therefore I will briefly explain what I see
US lost this war already, unless it morphs into a ground war. None of the goals of the operation was achieved. Regime is intact, in fact stronger than ever. No sign or proof that nukes are destroyed. US failed to regroup opponents of the regime, failed to ignite rebellion. US suffered enormous material and infrastructure loss in the region. One carrier became unusable. The other can't even get closer than 1000 miles. Most importantly US lost allies along with its credibility because it became obvious that no other country except Israel was important, as US failed to protect them during the war while pouring all resources to Israel. Energy prices spiked, strait of Hormuz now closed to US and allies but open to china and others.
If US had nothing to win and everything to lose, It is obvious that US was dragged into this unwillingly and Trump was either too stupid to do this or he is surrounded by true unamerican treasonous people
Anyway, I think Trump finally grasped the situation and saw an existential threat to his position and future. When He gave Iran 48 hours and threatened to bomb heavily, I immediately saw this as a desperation attempt to exit but he needed to create an event as an excuse. He would bomb then declare victory, this way he would avoid humiliation. sugar-coat his TACO with bombs and victory laps. But during the weekend, he realized it would make things worse because if Iran retaliates full force, it would be a ungodly disaster for all region and US would lose middle east for good.
So this was the reason I closed the position yesterday because one thing never changes with him. He always TACO ! Once he fully goes chicken and bounce runs out of momentum , we will likely see a deeper sell off
xTrends@xtrends
I opened an index short first time in a long time under 7K today The market rallied on the idea that Warsh will be just another monetary whore that will give admin whatever they need and print senselessly... Maybe he is maybe not but there is a reason he was selected by the king of debt and bankruptcy... Regardless, sentiment is insanely ripe for a good 500 SPX handles downside post earnings and there are a lot of potential triggers in short term.
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