Wimar.X@DefiWimar
🚨 WARNING: SOMETHING EXTREMELY UNUSUAL IS HAPPENING!!
Look at US government bond rates right now.
US 10Y: 4.38%
US 20Y: 5.00%
US 30Y: 4.94%
This is a WARNING, because you do NOT see rates like this in a normal market.
And if you think it doesn't matter...
YOU'RE COMPLETELY WRONG.
Let me explain this in simple words.
The US 10Y is 4.38%, and that's already close enough to 5% to start breaking things.
That one fact explains a lot.
Because US Treasuries are the base layer for mortgages, corporate debt, valuations, and the whole price of money across the system.
So when yields stay this high, everything else has to reprice around them.
And that's where the real damage starts.
The US Treasury market is $30.3 TRILLION.
That means even a small move there changes everything.
- 1% = $303 BILLION
- 5% = $1.515 TRILLION
- 10% = $3.03 TRILLION
Now connect the dots.
When the 10Y moves higher, mortgage rates usually move with it.
The average US 30-year fixed mortgage rate is already 6.22%.
That's NOT a small detail.
Because higher Treasury yields do NOT stay inside Wall Street.
They hit housing.
They hit credit cards.
They hit auto loans.
They hit every company that needs cheap refinancing to stay alive.
And the flow picture is getting uglier.
In the latest week, US equity funds saw $24.78 BILLION of outflows, while US bond funds pulled in $11.53 BILLION and money market funds took in another $32.73 BILLION.
That tells you the market is getting DEFENSIVE while yields are still high.
And that's a bad mix for risk assets.
Because if yields stay high from inflation and oil, stocks get hit by the higher cost of money.
And if bonds suddenly start pumping because growth is breaking, stocks get hit for a different reason.
Either way, something else in the system usually cracks.
THIS IS NOT GOOD AT ALL.
I've studied macro for 10 years and I called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH.
Follow and turn notifications on.
I'll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.
