Jim Biianco retweetledi
Jim Biianco
177 posts
Jim Biianco
@bain_coresearch
Macro investment research at biancoresearch Our total return index is at biancoadvisorsThe ETF WTBN tracks our Index. biancoresearch
Chicago, IL Katılım Haziran 2020
134 Takip Edilen23 Takipçiler
Jim Biianco retweetledi
Jim Biianco retweetledi
Chris Martin of Coldplay in Madison, WI last night
When they got to the “kiss cam” part, Martin said:
“Ok, we’re going to turn the camera on now. Please prepare yourself for the possibility you might be on the big screen.”
Then they proceeded to show nothing but dudes in silly costumes. No couples.
Q: Did the lawyers make them do this?
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Jim Biianco retweetledi
Jim Biianco retweetledi
I will attempt to interpret Trump and explain why his thinking is incorrect.
Trump's statement below suggests that the MAJOR factor driving rates is credit quality. Since he believes the US has the best credit quality ("companies pouring in", "the hottest country"), he concludes that we should have the lowest interest rates.
This is how a real estate developer from Queens thinks about yields: the best properties should have the lowest yields.
While true for private assets, such as Class A Manhattan office towers, this is not the case for developed-world sovereign yields. Credit quality is a VERY MINOR driver of their yields.
Nominal growth, inflation expectations, and anticipated supply drive the level of sovereign yields.
All of Trump’s “credit” statements are arguments for high nominal growth and heightened inflation expectations. Add the increased supply, thanks to the BBB, and he is really making a compelling case for HIGHER Treasury yields.
zerohedge@zerohedge
*TRUMP: WE SHOULD HAVE THE LOWEST INTEREST RATES is economy that bad?
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Jim Biianco retweetledi
Mid-year update
We review the performance of the Bianco Research Total Return Index and the ETF that tracks it, the WisdomTree Bianco Fund (WTBN).
Also, the fair value of bonds and why Trump's demand that the Fed cut rates can lead to higher LT yields.
biancoadvisors.com/2025-mid-year-…
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Jim Biianco retweetledi
The market probability (ff futures) of a July 30th cut is 5%
The next meeting is Sept 18.
My rule of thumb: between 33% and 66% for the "meeting after the meeting" is really a coin-toss.
The Sept 18 meeting is back into coin-toss territory.
Who wants to tell Trump?
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Jim Biianco retweetledi
Jim Biianco retweetledi
Jim Biianco retweetledi
Zervos trading to be the next Fed Chairman took a hit in the last 36 hours, going from 18% on Tuesday, August 19th (and in second place behind Waller!) to 8% earlier today, a loss of more than 50%.
I've been reliably told that MIGHT have something to do with the repost below.
Kuppy@hkuppy
Zervos is the Fed Chair we all deserve…
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Jim Biianco retweetledi
One Fed Chairman on his way out, the other on his way in???
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Jim Biianco retweetledi
Weak-Kneed About Powell's Speech Tomorrow?
(That he will push back about a rate cut)
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Note that the probability of a rate cut is still 70%, so it is still greater than 50%.
It was 88% yesterday.
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Jim Biianco retweetledi
This picture was taken a few hours ago by a friend of mine at the airport in Jackson Hole.
This guy's had a rough day!
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Jim Biianco retweetledi
Most econ stats are surveys. Falling response rates are reducing accuracy, resulting in larger revisions.
Gov't surveys, such as those conducted by the BLS, request personal information. Now, Fed scammers are doing the same (below).
We need a new way to measure the economy.
Federal Reserve@federalreserve
Did you get an unsolicited call from the Federal Reserve? Do not provide any personal financial information to the caller. It’s a scam! For more information about how to protect you, your family, and friends, visit federalreserve.gov
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Jim Biianco retweetledi
And don't think for a minute that the public can distinguish between a Fed scammer and a legitimate BLS survey.
Hang up on all of them.
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Jim Biianco retweetledi
Jim Biianco retweetledi
The last 125 bps of bank rate cuts by the BoE have seen the 10-year Gilt rise 87 bps.
Cutting rates is NOT lower long rates!
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Jim Biianco retweetledi
We have been told that if the central bank cuts are not “too late,” long term rates fall, including mortgage rates.
It did not happen in the US a year ago when the Fed cut and it’s not happening now in the UK (or throughout Europe).
FYI, the Bank of England cut rates last week.
Richard Tice MP 🇬🇧@TiceRichard
BOND MARKET ALERT 30 yr cost of UK Govt debt soaring Despite 5 base rate cuts by BofE This should not be happening I’ve been warning about this for months Markets realised growth is flat, debts too high
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Jim Biianco retweetledi
Home prices have been 🚀 for years.
The problem is not mortgage rates, it's inventory (not enough).
Cut rates and home sellers raise prices, and monthly payments remain unchanged. The affordability problem remains. Greedy boomer homeowners get richer.
How to fix affordability?
Reduce zoning and building regulations to increase inventory. The problem is that selfish boomer homeowners wield these laws to restrict supply and drive up the price of their homes.
Edward McKernan@EdwardMcKernan
@biancoresearch Jim - the flaw in your rates to stay higher for longer is the OER has been overly weighted and lagging in the CPI calculation. So much extra housing inventory sits waiting for lower rates. No way house prices can go up until the months of supply drop substantially.
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Jim Biianco retweetledi
The median home price in the United States in June 2025 was $415.2k (seasonally adjusted), a new record.
It is up 51% from five years earlier, $273.9k in May 2020.
This is the problem ... "the price is too damm high."
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