Charlie Robertson

"How come no one told me about this book before? Published in 2022 .. it is one of the best popular economics books of the last decade, and one of the best books on economic development period. " 🙏 @tylercowen The Time Travelling Economist marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolu…

Sonko was the most resistant to default .. I think ?

“Normally when we have these Ebola outbreaks, and I had three of them when I was CDC director, all of which were in the DRC, we recognize them when we have five, 10 cases, you know, at most,” he continued. “This one really wasn’t picked up until there was over 100 cases.”

Saudi Arabia a big winner from Hormuz closure, based on March data. The rise in the oil price more than offset the cut in volumes (data via EFG)

@PerisMuchiri7 @EPRA_KE @AmbokoJH @nderi_j @kasiva_mutisya @mytradesignals @mtucreativity @MwangoCapital @IEAKwame @StellarSwakei I agree with the reply by @StellarSwakei (just supply, not price) Given the price shocks in some countries as they run out of fuel (eg Malawi) the rationing in Sri Lanka and the working from home orders elsewhere in Asia, securing a regular supply is quite a big positive

🇰🇪 Following the President's state of nation address, Curious on: 1. EPRA Fuel Pricing model, the intial prices, then the two cuts; Kes 10.06 on diesel effected May 19 & now Kes 10 to be effected June 2. Stabilization Levy So G-to-G had nothing to do with price, just supply?

@Kathleen_Tyson_ Not most of the imports. And the export breakdown to 2023/24 doesn’t show phones as a separate category, so probably less than $200m. But would be keen to see the company’s export data. They claimed $100m of total exports by 2018

Most of the imports to Ethiopia from China, I suspect, will be Transsion phone components, which are used to make the phones which have 48% of African smartphone market share, over 40.5 million units in 2025. Transsion has transformed Africa from its Ethiopian factory, with Ethiopian management, engineers, and workers. Celebrate their success!

It's amazing how unbalanced Ethiopia's trade with China is. 41% of its imports are from China ($20bn), 100 times higher than what it exports (4% of exports, $0.2bn). How does China expect Ethiopia to repay the billions it has lent, if it doesn't buy anything from the country ?

@Cal0812 The issue is the imbalance combined with the lending.

@CharlieTTEcon We should all ask the same for the massive trade imbalances of the US Services now, shouldnt we?

@rszourun 😂. It’s not a China hate story. It’s a “what is the head of risk in the China bank thinking” when he lends money to a country without thinking how it pays it back.

@CharlieTTEcon This is totally China hate story. If Ethophia not buying from China but buying from other countried the country may have to pay 20b morr to get same product. Ethophia may run high deficit with China but its overall deficit would be substantially smaller. Good for the country!

@mswahilimwitu @xuchuanmei And I guess that's why Ethiopia defaulted on its debts, including to China. But I'm still curious about China's thinking, when they were the biggest single lender and biggest exporter to Ethiopia. It was a curious blindness to the financial risk they helped create

@CharlieTTEcon @xuchuanmei But they don't have to. And that's the economic reality. Unless.

@ChunCuiJingYan Maybe we'll see a surge in Mali prices next week given the news bbc.com/news/articles/…

@CharlieTTEcon How ? That seems incredulous considering the fuel embargo and general siege of the major city areas

Mali and burkina faso

@frknasir Angola is ensuring that the wealthy with cars get subsidised fuel, while roughly 30% of the adult population can't read and write four words in any language. It's an interesting choice.

@CharlieTTEcon what is Angola doing that we need to know about?

Petrol prices this week across 28 countries in Africa

@xuchuanmei @mswahilimwitu If the local cafe lends you a lot of money, they might have some interest in ensuring you have an income that would let you repay the loan. Perhaps encourage you to make your own food/coffee and buy a little less off them

@mswahilimwitu @CharlieTTEcon Exactly.

Embarrassingly, got one number mixed up here. Total Ethiopia imports ($20bn) are 100 times Ethiopian exports to China ($0.2bn), but imports from China at $8.2bn (41% of total) are only 36 times higher than Ethiopia's exports to China. Sorry

Good move by the central bank of Rwanda, hiking rates 100bp to 8.25%. The last time they hiked so much was in 2022 (also during a geo-politically driven inflation surge). GDP grew 9.4% last year and April inflation hit 13.1% due to fuel price hikes

@michaelxpettis Yes, the $8bn trade deficit with China is over half the total $14bn deficit (DOTS to Jan 26). Big $ earners are remittances/travel. But my qn is how China thinks about the debt repayment when they provide nearly zero means themselves for Ethiopia to do it.

I believe Ethiopia's deficit with China is about two-thirds of its total deficit, and nearly one-half of this total deficit is financed by remittances which, I assume, are fairly stable. I would further guess that China finances about one-third to one-half of Ethiopia's trade deficit with China. Does that sound right?

@CuriousGeoffrey It has. But this is a structural problem that (almost) no amount of depreciation would rectify

@CharlieTTEcon If the trade imbalance is so huge why doesnt the exchange rate for yuan to birr fall massively?

Three tankers may not sound like much, but just this one tanker Universal Winner, heading to South Korea, could supply Malawi with 6 months of its crude oil needs (Worldometer estimate of daily imports). Malawi has run out of strategic oil reserves, reports the FT

The Malawi fuel price I cite here is what happens when you run out of strategic fuel reserves

@ganXE Yes, cost price is closer to Nigeria’s price

Is Egypt subsidising petrol?