Danil Sereda

Any thoughts on the recent $IQE CEO interview for Compound Semiconductor? @aleabitoreddit any thoughts would be much appreciated !

@aleabitoreddit Same goes to $IQE Just insane how the market misreads things sometimes

One of the dumbest thematic selloffs I’ve seen to to date off: - $META compute news that’s not new - CPO delay report 1, that got refuted by $NVDA - CPO delay report 2, that got refuted by $NVDA High confidence, institutions will end up going long on the same names they’re bearposting after retail capitulates.

@aleabitoreddit Interesting analogy. I like Harmonic Drive as a niche pick, although it's not listed above in your discussion because it's non-US

Just a random thought, leading US humanoid players strangely me of the current LLM dynamics: Agility ( $CCXI ) kinda feels like Anthropic for robotics. With $AMZN and $NVDA heavily backing it, ingrained with $GOOGL Deepmind (like TPUs). And it starts off with enterprise commercialization. Optimus is kinda off doing its own thing like xAI. Supported by Tesla/Elon and his visionary roadmap as usual. Figure is like ChatGPT With Microsoft/OpenAI investing (kinda like Microsoft), then ended up kinda competing them by building their own VlA and setting them behind. But ends up top 2 leaders anyway. Boston Dynamics is Gemini Kinda started the entire humanoids thing like transformers with backflip videos. With R&D supported by $GOOGL but somehow let everyone else leapfrog them in commercialization. And then there’s $NVDA just chilling, silently powering the entire humanoids ecosystem.

@aleabitoreddit I think of a possible re-allocation from memory (but mostly photonics) into robotics... hence the resulting performance of these niches. IMHO

This market feels like an ADHD goldfish with a 5 second attention span, trading popular themes. It's like markets only care about physical AI and energy right now? And sold off memory and photonics that are bottlenecked past 2028?

@MoodyWriter13 For $MOW, it might be the recent OpanAI news, their failure. I guess

Who decided that every time AI hardware sells off, $NOW and $SAP have to rip higher? Curious what the logic is.

$NOW finally getting the bid

@aleabitoreddit Might be a stupid assumption, but... if this kind of AI fear is prevailing, doesn't it mean we need to re-allocate back to the tech that's been hurt by AI - say, $IGV, in general, or better $NOW in particular as a strong pick within the sector?

“What matters is not the eggs, it is the Goose itself” SoftBank probably down -13.5% today after markets saw this investor presentation today. Also the OpenAI IPO possible 2027 delay cause Altman wanted a $1T valuation might have been a small cause…

@aleabitoreddit $XFAB is saving me for today

Curious if anyone's portfolio is green after today's fun day. $KORU: -32.06% $SOXL: -22.98% $IQE: -13.58% $DRAM: -12.6% $AXTI: -12.57% $FLNC: -12.5% $AAOI: -11.2% $SIVE: -11.7% $TSEM: -10.24% $SNDK: -12.5% $MU: -11.8% Sk Hynix: -12.35% Samsung: -9.6% $MRVL: -8.3% $LITE: -7.6% $SOI -7.15% $TSM: -6.1% $AMD: -6.04% Feels like anything high-beta or semis had a steep drop.

Today, $XFAB (1.23B MC) receives €127.4 million from CHIPS ACT for their MEMS Foundry. "The «Fab4Micro» in Erfurt is a key project for the technological sovereignty of Germany and Europe, explained Thuringia’s head of government." The production start is planned in 2028 (finanzen). With Europe's new CHIPS ACT 2 as a concurrent fundamental tailwind.

@aleabitoreddit At least here Bernstein didn't f*ck up

$XFAB upgraded to outperform with a PT of €12.8 by Bernstein, up from €5. Okay I forgive you Bernstein for Kioxia and Intel. I still think that’s just reactive PTs off automotive recovery, SiC/power semi ramp up. And undershooting potential a lot… If markets price in the possibility of xfab moving to HVM. On their silicon photonics foundry w/ photonixfab / Nvidia + LIGENTEC for TFLN on SOI. Regardless I’m bullish too on XFAB and curious where it heads.

Another way to look at $XFAB ?

Something's cooking.... $XFAB x.com/DanilSer33/sta…

$XFAB anyone - what's the setup here?

@aleabitoreddit Waiting for $xfab to follow

Ur welcome with $IQE

Shouldn’t that Anthropic’s decision be massively bullish for SaaS names, and software as a sector?

GitLab $GTLB and Google's $GOOG Cloud are strengthening AI-driven platform collab for enterprise customers, and $GTLB is down? Looks like a mispriced opportunity righ away, IMHO

@RyanU_1F42B $IQE, $XFAB, and others are just not really well known but they're both critical to western supply chains. Probably a long way to go imo

@aleabitoreddit 16,000 observations are a massive dataset indeed. Interesting piece, need to take a closer look

There was interesting research published called "Democratization of Retail Trading". That did a study on 1.6 Million $RDDT WSB comments. and found: 1. "WSB outperformed almost all investment banks at detecting top-performing stocks." 2. "Their average returns compete with the best investment banks and outperform them in certain cases." Their conclusion? "We conclude that WSB may indeed constitute a freely accessible, valuable source of investment advice." I do find WSB is really early to names like $RKLB, $HOOD, and others, but often get timing extremely wrong (with options). I think X is where all the alpha is at nowadays.

Why do I keep getting these questions!!! $XFAB is building a Silicon Photonics foundry alternative to $TSEM and $GFS. And has Europe backing it + $NVDA evaluations. It takes time... Like October 2026, should finish up development. Then 2027 production scaled into 2028 (mass production), since they've been working on it since 2023. Everyone thinks it’s a depressed automaker supplier right now. And thankfully with European names they tend to look at TTM revenue over forward growth. So somehow it’s leading EU’s efforts to create a $TSEM silicon photonics foundry + supply chain at ~€1.1B MC? That R&D directors from ASE cite + others as future CPO routes. I’m might just really early to a lot of things, but of course most of the risk/reward comes from taking a little leap of faith in seeing it commercialized. Otherwise people can take the de-risked route with Tower directly (which I also wrote a thesis on awhile back and also like).

@aleabitoreddit $XFAB , no?

I like $SIVE