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David Nir on Bluesky: @davidnir.com
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David Nir on Bluesky: @davidnir.com
@DavidNir
Publisher, The Downballot. davidnir (at) the-downballot (dot) com Find me on Bluesky: https://t.co/St2Z40rh6d
New York, NY Katılım Mart 2009
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@SenLouiseLucas Any comment on this? x.com/margaretbarthe…
Margaret Barthel@margaretbarthel
Sen. Majority Leader Scott Surovell, just now on Politics Hour, suggested that a two-seat Dem pick-up is possible if Virginia redraws its congressional maps but "after that, it gets difficult." Also said it's too early to be talking about maps - voters have to weigh in first
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@SenLouiseLucas Notably, Ferguson has claimed that a new map could harm Black representation. The exact opposite is true: Maryland Democrats could easily increase the number of majority-Black districts from two to three. Perhaps you could ask him why he hasn't done that yet.
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Get our victory in Virginia out of your mouth while you echo MAGA talking points. Grow a pair and stand up to this President. This is just embarassing.
Bill Ferguson@SenBillFerg
Tonight’s resounding Democratic victory shows we don't need to rig the system to win. When we provide a better vision about the future - lower costs, better services, and real solutions to protect against Trump - voters overwhelmingly choose our leadership.
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@admcrlsn I love this infobox but I am very curious to understand why you've grouped Orthodox and Conservative Jews together. Conservative Jews are very close to Reform Jews in their politics (Pew, 2021) and very different from Orthodox—almost a 100 point net dif! pewresearch.org/religion/2021/…
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In a five-way race, Mamdani leads among the vast majority of subgroups.
Some of these (especially where he’s under 40%) are due largely to Cuomo/Sliwa/Adams splitting the remainder of the vote.
But Mamdani is above 50% among 45 subgroups of likely voters.
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🚨 🚨 A new NYC mayor general election poll from @ZenithPolls (me) & Public Progress (@amitsinghbagga) — the most comprehensive poll of the race — finds Mamdani with a commanding 28-point lead in a five-way race, and getting >50% head-to-head vs Cuomo
Let’s dive in, shall we? 🧵
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@DavidNir No, they asked multiple line ups with multiple variations of text. I think they did ask straight with no commentary, but many of the horserace Qs had anti-Mamdani, anti-Adams editorialized text at the top and interspersed were Q’s like “who is too left”/inexperienced etc
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I got this poll and the slant against Zohran Mamdani was obvious.
Jacob N. Kornbluh@jacobkornbluh
NEW: First post-Dem primary poll by Honan Strategy Group of 817 likely voters: If Cuomo runs as an independent, he is tied with Mamdani 39-39. Cuomo leads 44-40 if Adams drops out. Mamdani leads Adams 46-31 if Cuomo is out.
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@allymutnick The person who heads the group that sponsored the poll: nbcnews.com/nbc-out/out-po…
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News: Fresh #TXSEN primary polling shows Sen John Cornyn down 22 points (!) to Ken Paxton
Paxton - 50%
Cornyn - 28%
This is an independent poll conducted by Robert Blizzard for a nonpartisan think tank advocating for school choice
Full memo in here >> punchbowl.news/article/campai…
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@JacobRubashkin (Just a note that the cmte did dismiss two of the allegations against SCM.)
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My ears must have been burning. The Office of Congressional Ethics just released a brief report saying Cherfilus-McCormick may have violated House rules and/or federal law on five more occasions.
Jacob Rubashkin@JacobRubashkin
The health care company owned by Florida Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D) and her family has agreed to pay back $5.8 million that Florida accidentally disbursed to it. She was the CEO at the time, and took a $5.8m salary that year - then self-funded her campaign with $6.2m.
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@joshgerstein Neither the link nor the Politico article say it's reinstated. Do you have another source?
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FLASH: Federal appeals court temporarily reinstates Trump tariffs suspended by lower court. En banc (-1) order from Federal Circuit: documentcloud.org/documents/2595… Earlier: politico.com/news/2025/05/2…
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@metzgov There's audio of him saying that in a WI Dems ad they released a few days ago youtube.com/watch?v=rUP9mO…
YouTube
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Democrats in WI have taken to refering to the GOP Supreme Court candidate Brad Schimel as "Knee Pad Brad."
I vaguely assumed this was some lewd joke they came up with themselves, but after looking into it, turns out it's based on a thing he actually said himself.
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@SenatorHeinrich @SenatorLujan How will you vote on cloture?
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Authoritarians rise when people give up their power without a fight. I won’t do that.
My full statement with @SenatorLujan below.
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@JacobRubashkin this blog is small do not give them a platform
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Not that this is worth dignifying but the congresswoman seemed to think the small but mighty IE was being fed information as part of a political attack and that's how we got this story.
In fact, it's because we watch every TV ad in the country, and flagged this one as odd.
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Wow! Two and a half years later, the House Ethics Committee has released the OCE report into Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick.
Turns out Cherfilus-McCormick personally intervened to hide the role of a key political operative, Mark Goodrich, who I was writing about.
Jacob Rubashkin@JacobRubashkin
Three weeks ago, I saw something I had never seen before: a congresswoman running TV ads listing her accomplishments, just a few months before her primary, using her House office's taxpayer-funded allowance. I decided to dig into it. Here's what I found: insideelections.com/news/article/t…
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It's been quite a year for us, leaving our old home to launch a brand-new site. I'm so grateful to everyone who believed in us & made it all possible. We still have a ways to go before we're sustainable, so if you support our mission, I hope you'll consider a donation. Thank you.
The Downballot on Bluesky: @the-downballot.com@downballotnews
As we wrap up 2024, we wanted to express our deepest gratitude to our readers. Launching The Downballot was a momentous step for us, and your support is why we're here today. We hope you'll consider donating to our end-of-year fundraiser. the-downballot.com/p/morning-dige…
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David Nir on Bluesky: @davidnir.com retweetledi
On our final podcast of the year, we're presenting a very special ceremony: the Second Annual Downballot Awards! Categories include:
• Best Performance by a Losing Candidate
• Most Embarrassing Use of AI
• The Iron Bladder Award
And many more! the-downballot.com/p/the-second-a…
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Going live at 2 PM ET: My video chat with @atrupar.com of Public Notice! We'll be taking your Q&A on all topics political and electoral. You'll need the (free) Substack app to participate. Grab it here! substack.com/app
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David Nir on Bluesky: @davidnir.com retweetledi
It's been a good news/bad news week for Dems and democracy in North Carolina: Allison Riggs was confirmed as the winner of a *second* recount, but the GOP just passed a flagrant power grab. We discuss it all on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast the-downballot.com/p/the-nc-gops-…
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David Nir on Bluesky: @davidnir.com retweetledi
A second recount has confirmed Allison Riggs won the North Carolina Supreme Court race, but Democrats have reason to fear the GOP could overturn the result. We explain why in our newest Digest the-downballot.com/p/morning-dige…
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David Nir on Bluesky: @davidnir.com retweetledi
For swearing-in w/ Kamala Harris, Sen Adam Schiff uses 1490 edition of Maimonides Mishneh Torah -“a monumental legal code and one of the most organized, comprehensive, and influential works of Jewish law.” The edition was published by Gershom ben Mosheh ish Sontsino (h/t @kampeas
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@BryanRAnderson Statute says a second recount may be requested "within 24 hours of the completion of the first recount." Doesn't seem like the first one is complete though. law.justia.com/codes/north-ca…
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JUST IN: Court of Appeals Judge Jefferson Griffin has requested a second recount (hand-to-eye recount) in NC Supreme Court race. He currently trails Democratic incumbent Allison Riggs. #ncpol #Election2024
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