Derek Carty

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Derek Carty

Derek Carty

@DerekCarty

MLB/NFL Fantasy & Betting Analyst (Everywhere) | THE BAT X/THE BLITZ Projections @EV_Analytics @RotoGrinders @FanGraphs | Sabermetrics Guy & Scout School Grad |

Katılım Nisan 2009
929 Takip Edilen35.7K Takipçiler
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Derek Carty
Derek Carty@DerekCarty·
THE BAT X for Sports Betting is now for sale at @EV_Analytics! 🏅Most accurate projections for 6 straight years! (and now utilizing Statcast pitcher data) 💰+340.1 units/12.9% ROI on tracked public bets 📚Compare odds from 20+ books 🎯Easily identify value Easy-to-use tools + Elite projections + Hours saved = MASSIVE VALUE
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Derek Carty
Derek Carty@DerekCarty·
The subscription at RotoGrinders is for DFS. If you give me your username, i can get you a refund in it. For season long, THE BAT X projections are free at Fangraphs. Go to their auction calculator, input your league settings, choose THE BAT X as the projection source, and it will give you customized rankings to your league
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Nick Pollack
Nick Pollack@PitcherList·
I'm so excited for tonight's inaugural Tout Wars Champions League draft! 12-teamer, H2H, daily transactions with the twelve absolute legends of fantasy baseball. A league where someone unfamiliar with the industry can see legit experts play a league like theirs. Details 👇
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Michael Salfino
Michael Salfino@MichaelSalfino·
@DerekCarty I don’t care about ERA so we agree there. I do think the contact quality stats should support pitch metrics though. And if the metrics seem meh but results in contact quality (or lack of contact) are good, I don’t worry as much about the metrics.
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Michael Salfino
Michael Salfino@MichaelSalfino·
These are my questions. I suspect the answer is "no" that pitch shape has little correlation to results. We never hear about that. There's a gestalt to pitching -- changing speeds, tunneling, a delivery that makes picking up the ball difficult. Movement means something, sure.
Jon Anderson@JonPgh

What’s good, what’s bad, how does that change by pitch type, by velo? Does anything reliably correlate to actual results? And it’s 3 dimensional so each dimension plays off the others.. Hitters adjust and get better against certain shapes… so everything changes all the time Is it useful enough for the average person to benefit from?

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Derek Carty
Derek Carty@DerekCarty·
@MichaelSalfino I am not in that camp. But that's like asking "Why did Dylan Cease have a high ERA contrary to what the SIERA/xFIP/whatever metrics people say"? There's variance in everything, and you can always cherry-pick an example like that. It doesn't prove or disprove anything.
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Michael Salfino
Michael Salfino@MichaelSalfino·
@DerekCarty I have no idea if you're in the camp that Chandler has an 80 fastball but weak secondaries. So maybe this doesn't pertain to you. But why did the league smash Chandler's fastball and struggle vs. his secondaries contrary to what pitch metrics people say?
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Derek Carty
Derek Carty@DerekCarty·
@MichaelSalfino Let's say it's velocity. Or movement. (Would have to actually check.) Your theory is that velocity and movement don't have a correlation to results?
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Michael Salfino
Michael Salfino@MichaelSalfino·
@DerekCarty You don't know me. For example, what is the most common characteristic of the best run-value fastballs or whatever one stat you want to use?
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Derek Carty
Derek Carty@DerekCarty·
@MichaelSalfino I've run it, but I know you and it won't make a difference anyway. How is this even a real opinion though? It's obviously not true
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Derek Carty
Derek Carty@DerekCarty·
@MyersHenry42920 Yeah he didn't make the sample size cutoff. His curve profiles really well, though.
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100 baseball
100 baseball@MyersHenry42920·
@DerekCarty Mclean not on here is crazy did he not qualify. I heard he had the highest spin rate in the league.
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Derek Carty
Derek Carty@DerekCarty·
Top 10 Best Pitches in Baseball (via THE BATcast "Stuff" system, 2025) What other pitches belongs on this list? Who got snubbed? 1) Skubal - Changeup 2) Snell - Changeup 3) C Sanchez - Changeup 4) Burns - Slider 5) Gilbert - Splitter 6) deGrom - Slider 7) Greene - Slider 8) S Gray - Sweeper 9) Cease - Slider 10) Fried - Curveball
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Alf
Alf@Alf9390·
@DerekCarty Yesavage splitter might be on the list in 2026
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Derek Carty
Derek Carty@DerekCarty·
@mlb_terminal I have that data but don't have it broken down that way publicly yet. Might be worth adding at some point
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MLB Prediction Terminal
MLB Prediction Terminal@mlb_terminal·
@DerekCarty This is awesome. Is there a way to show how stats shift against same-handed vs. opposite-handed batters?
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Derek Carty
Derek Carty@DerekCarty·
🚨Great news for baseball data nerds!!🚨 You can now see my new THE BATcast "Stuff" model grades over at EV Analytics (and coming to FanGraphs soon too)! Go play with it and let me know what you think! A few cool ways you can use this data...
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Derek Carty
Derek Carty@DerekCarty·
@CorlekCarmas They're included, just none make the list. The best fastballs aren't as good as the best secondary pitches, in a vacuum
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Derek Carty
Derek Carty@DerekCarty·
@Alf9390 Definitely a great pitch. Looks like it has gotten a bit worse as he's aged, though. Not quite as elite as it used to be.
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@RyeLuckyLuciano @PitcherList @RotoGrinders @MichaelSalfino @MyersHenry42920 @Alf9390 @CorlekCarmas @elonmusk