FedResearch

ICYMI: New #FEDSNote: Mind the Gap: Announced versus Implied Tariff Rates in Recent Trade Policy Episodes: federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/…

ICYMI: This #FEDSNote examines stablecoin growth and developments in 2025, which introduce novel financial stability risks: (1) complex intermediation chains, (2) vertical integration, (3) retail adoption via digital wallets. These may amplify run risk. federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/…

ICYMI: India is the world's fastest-growing major economy, but its path differs from China's export-led model. Can India compete in global manufacturing? Will AI disrupt its services boom? New #FEDSNote explores: federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/…

Call for papers: Global Research Forum on International Macroeconomics and Finance. Paper submissions due by May 31, 2026: federalreserve.gov/conferences/gl…

The authors estimate that the tariffs implemented through November of 2025 can explain the entirety of excess inflation in the core goods category and contributed to a 0.8 percent boost in core PCE prices through February 2026. federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/… #FEDSNote

New #FEDSNote: Mind the Gap: Announced versus Implied Tariff Rates in Recent Trade Policy Episodes: federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/… #EconTwitter

Breakeven job growth (the pace needed to maintain a steady unemployment rate) near-zero.  Could make negative job growth almost as likely as positive job growth in any given month. 2: Any growth in potential GDP must come from productivity growth. (2/2) federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/…

ICYMI: Labor force growth could be near-zero starting this year, due to weak population growth & declining labor force participation. Such weak growth is unprecedented in the United States’ recent history. This has significant economic implications: (1/2) federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/…

This #FEDSNote examines stablecoin growth and developments in 2025, which introduce novel financial stability risks: (1) complex intermediation chains, (2) vertical integration, (3) retail adoption via digital wallets. These may amplify run risk. federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/…

ICYMI: Firms commonly face multiple tight credit constraints. This prevents expansion after monetary easing but amplifies the response to tightening, explaining the well-documented asymmetry in monetary policy transmission. federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/m… #FEDSPaper #EconTwitter

India is the world's fastest-growing major economy, but its path differs from China's export-led model. Can India compete in global manufacturing? Will AI disrupt its services boom? New #FEDSNote explores: federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/… #EconTwitter

ICYMI: New #FEDSNote: Monitoring AI Adoption in the US Economy: federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/…

ICYMI: How can researchers trust LLM-generated measurements when human validation is biased, inconsistent, or prohibitively expensive? New #FEDSPaper proposes a validation framework that lets LLMs prove their reliability without external benchmarks. federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/v…

Call for papers: Global Research Forum on International Macroeconomics and Finance. Paper submissions due by May 31, 2026: federalreserve.gov/conferences/gl…

ICYMI: New #FEDSNote: Is the Inflation Process in Advanced Economies Different After the Pandemic?: federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/…

ICYMI: New #FEDSNote: Payment Stablecoins and Cross Border Payments: Benefits and Implications for Monetary Policy Implementation: federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/…

New #FEDSNote: Monitoring AI Adoption in the US Economy: federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/…

ICYMI: New #FEDSPaper: A User’s Guide to Reducing the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet: federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/a…

Breakeven job growth (the pace needed to maintain a steady unemployment rate) near-zero.  Could make negative job growth almost as likely as positive job growth in any given month. 2: Any growth in potential GDP must come from productivity growth. (2/2) federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/…

Labor force growth could be near-zero starting this year, due to weak population growth and declining labor force participation.  Such weak growth is unprecedented in the United States’ recent history. This has significant economic implications: (1/2) federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/…