Gustav C. Gressel

I declined interviews on the Trump-Putin nonsense. I don't want to speculate on rumours and I don't think it will deliver substance. However I created my first #substack text on what challenges lie ahead for 🇪🇺 supporting 🇺🇦 alone: open.substack.com/pub/gustavgres…

Wer einen Gegensatz zwischen Kriegstüchtigkeit und Diplomatie herbeiredet, hat entweder nichts von Strategie und Abschreckung verstanden oder verbirgt seine Absichten hinter landesverräterischer Meinungsmache. Ich sag jetzt nicht, welche Variante hier zutrifft. Man ahnt es wohl.

@kaikowsky @aufmacher @OstausschussSK Dieses Jahr wird das schwer. Wie gesagt, ist work in Progress. Für operative Durchbrüche braucht es noch.

@aufmacher @GresselGustav @OstausschussSK Sehen Sie in 26 real die Fähigkeit der 🇺🇦 durch Zusammenfassung mechanisierter Kräfte unter Jabo/Artillerievorbereitung im S einen Vorstoß mit operativer Zielsetzung "Asowsches Meer" umzusetzen, 🇷🇺GLOC zu zerschneiden u RUS Kräfte zu trennen?

Mit @GresselGustav konnte ich ausführlich über die angebliche "Wende" im ukrainischen Verteidigungskampf sprechen. Überall, wo es Podcasts gibt und beim @OstausschussSK gibt es das Gespräch. salonkolumnisten.com/ostausschuss/

Die 🇺🇦 hat an der Wende über zwei Jahre gearbeitet. Und jetzt sieht man die Früchte. Es ist ein langsmerer und schwierigerer Prozess als es bei uns dargestellt wird, aber ein ukrainischer Sieg ist nicht unmöglich. Genaueres 👇

💯👇

Soon on this platform: comments on American housewives by CEOs from defence OEMs...

Daily Ukraine map thread for Sunday 31st May 2026 Five months into 2026, and it's going better for Ukraine than anyone could possibly have hoped. With Russian forces pushed mostly out of the Kupiansk area, and Ukrainian reinforcements being brought in on the Hulyaipole / Dnipropetrovsk front to push back, things have very much stabilised across the front. Few areas of contention - Russian forces do appear to be grinding through Kostyantynivka, but that's all it is - grinding through superior numbers and deaths. Russian forces have lost positions in the Dnipropetrovsk / W Donetsk area, as well as west Zaporizhia, and near Lyman. There's a few other areas that Ukraine has taken territory back too and secured positions, such as in the Luhansk direction north of Lyman, or near Zelenyi Hai in west Donetsk, but they're being good on OpSec so it's only if you are looking at the areas you'll see what's happened or who is involved. The deep strike campaign has a massive impact on Russia - once again, you only see the big explosions from the oil going up, you do not really see the impact that destroying AVT units at refineries has to the processing or bottom line. Russia are hiding this well, but the damage doesn't lie. Feodosia was struck again, as well as Saratov refinery, oil tanks in Matveev Kurgan, and also two huge tanks at the pumping station at Lazarevo causing shocks across the area. The past three months of the deep and newer mid strike campaign have been fantastic - especially during May where the strike campaign well into the occupied territories really started to pay off. The short answer is that's it's not big or flashy destroying trucks and impacting logistics, but it certainly has a massive impact. Things you can expect from Russia as this continues: - large pushes in directions whilst they still have plenty of supply - disguising trucks as civilian trucks - rushing new interceptor drones to the supply routes - a massive clamp down on footage from Russian drivers in the occupied territories in order so we can't see the losses as clearly as currently we get a lot from Russian social media - attempts to protect routes with netting - threatening Kyiv with the joke Oreshnik, as is standard. You can always tell the bot accounts, for they thrive on it. Let's hope June is just as successful. We calculate if even just 20 more trucks are destroyed a day, so 600 a month, it'll have a marked impact as long as the strike campaign keeps up with it's strikes on trains and other logistic points. It's a marathon, not a sprint here - though Ukraine certainly picked up the pace this month!

@Rebel44CZ Thanks a lot.

@GresselGustav t.me/stalins_sokol/…

#UkraineWar: a summary of Ukrainian equipment losses added to the Oryx loss list over the past 3 weeks (as of 31/05/2026) Full list: oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack…

❗️❗️Flash: The Russian analogue of StarLink is “Bureau 1440” project. The enemy needs a “Russian StarLink”. The first 16 Rassvet satellites are already in orbit. For data transmission to be constant and stable, at least 200–250 satellites need to be launched. The plans for the coming years are to launch 300 and then another 700 satellites. If the military use of the Rassvet satellites begins, we will record this by satellite traffic, by reconnaissance or by trophies. Depending on what the use will be.

Data update: In 2025, Russia paid out 145.6 billion RUB for sign-on bonuses from the federal budget, enough for 364,000 new contract soldiers.

Markus Welsch macht mit dem Monitor Luftkrieg tolle Arbeit. Hier bei @weplay4ukraine zu Gast über seine Arbeit, den 🇷🇺 Luftkrieg gegen 🇺🇦 und die mangelnde Vorbereitung in 🇪🇺.

In total, I gathered more than 1 000 geolocations since january 2026 (sources provided at the end of the thread). 35% of the strikes hit depots and warehouses (we don't know what is inside most of the time). 20% hit vehicles and 7% hit air-defense.

And keep in mind 🇷🇺 targeting civilians is deliberate. Not accidental.

This is wild... Russia seems to be threatening a *commercial* satellite that provides imaging services to Ukraine: ▸ starting about two weeks ago, Russia started maneuvering five (!) of their classified satellites to the same orbital inclination as the ICEYE satellite ▸ these burns were big, on the order of 100 m/s, clearly using chemical propulsion given the speed of the burns — very expensive and deliberate maneuvers ▸ as of last Friday, all five Russian satellites are now co-planar, at ~97.8° inclination, with three of ICEYE's satellites, and aligned in other orbital elements (e.g. RAAN) that make it clear they're specifically targeting this set ▸ I am a little skeptical that Russia is specifically targeting -X36 — there are two other satellites at the same inclination/RAAN (-X37 and -X38) — but the Russian sats are now all within striking distance of -X36, which is why people are concerned about it specifically; the closest cross-track distance is an estimated 500 meters (!!), all while the satellites are orbit 550 kilometers above Earth ▸ Russia has unleashed a cyberattack on a commercial satellite before (Viasat), and it is official Russian policy that commercially-owned infrastructure that aids in military efforts "may be legitimate target[s] for a retaliatory strike.” ▸ there's speculation that this could be a precursor to an RPO mission (meaning: physically grabbing the satellite or some other kind of non-kinetic attack like blinding/jamming) Worth tracking closely. And unfortunately more evidence that space is militarizing, fast.

NEW UPDATES, PLEASE SHARE my article about Jeffrey Sachs at @inved_Europa Find a compilation of his most self explaining quotes and appearances, it is not only about what he says, but also about WHERE he says it. inved.eu/insight/the-co…

@Andric1961 @moritz_gathmann @JulianRoepcke @HoansSolo @clement_molin @GrandpaRoy2 🇷🇺 LKW machen die Strecke täglich, auch wenn 🇺🇦 nur einen kleinen Prozentsatz der LKW pro Tag erwischt, summieren sich die Ausfälle über Zeit. Hinzu kommt die Schwierigkeit Reserven zu bewegen.

@Andric1961 @moritz_gathmann @JulianRoepcke @HoansSolo @clement_molin @GrandpaRoy2 Es wird auf der Route viel zerstört, sie ist für den Zivilverkehr geschlossen. Aber sie ist nicht gekappt. So funktioniert Interdiction aber auch nicht.

Is this true, @JulianRoepcke @GresselGustav @HoansSolo @clement_molin @GrandpaRoy2? Or too good to be true?

Neutrality offers no protection. During the Cold War, the Soviet Union planned a massive tank advance through the Danube Valley in Austria in order to launch an attack on NATO. The Austrian army, however, was aware of this and determined to join the fight on NATO’s side.

Wie prognostiziert: Aus "Bomben statt Heirat" wird nichts. Jemand hat Trump verklickert, dass er nichts zu gewinnen hat. Heraus kommt JCPOPA-minus, weil alles verschoben wird. Es hilft Trump. Es hilft Iran. Es war abzusehen, in einem Krieg des Narren, der nicht wusste, was er tut

Sevim Dağdelen (BSW) beim Betreten der russischen Botschaft im Mai 2025. Empfangen wird sie von einem GRU-Agenten und Kurator des Spionagenetzwerks in Deutschland. 🧵1/22